Wimbledon R4 preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Sousa

Rafael Nadal had to survive one blockbuster battle to reach the second week at Wimbledon. His reward is a fourth-round matchup that should be the polar opposite of that memorable second-round contest in just about every way.

On Thursday, Nadal faced a big-hitting opponent whom he flat-out dislikes and managed to prevail 6-3, 3-6, 7-6(5), 7-6(3) over Nick Kyrgios. On Monday, the Spaniard will go up against one of his good friends in a match that will feature almost exclusively baseline tennis and is not expected to be at all competitive.

It’s Nadal vs. frequent training partner Joao Sousa to begin the second week of action at the All-England Club on Centre Court. They have squared off twice before, with the 18-time Grand Slam champion rolling 6-1, 6-0 on the red clay of Rio de Janeiro in 2014 before being tested in a 6-0, 4-6, 6-3 victory at the 2016 Madrid Masters.

Kyrgios, as everyone knew he was capable of, put Nadal through a serious test last week. But Wimbledon’s second seed has otherwise cruised, trouncing Yuichi Sugita 6-3, 6-1, 6-3 and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga 6-2, 6-3, 6-2. He has now won 15 matches in a row, a streak that includes titles in Rome and at the French Open.

Prior to arriving in London, Sousa had gone 10 straight tournaments without winning multiple matches on any occasion. He sure picked a good time to end that drought–and more. The world No. 67 from Portugal opened with a 6-0, 6-3, 6-7(8), 6-1 defeat of British wild card Paul Jubb, erased Marin Cilic 6-4, 6-4, 6-4, an then outlasted an in-form Dan Evans 4-6, 6-4, 7-5, 4-6, 6-4 in the final third-round match of week one.

“We know each other very well,” Nadal assured. “Practiced plenty of times together. He’s a player that when he’s winning matches, he’s a super dangerous opponent against everybody. He is very quick, very good physical performer. He’s aggressive with his shots, he’s going for the shots all the time. He’s a player that, sometimes he loses matches during the whole year. But when he starts to have a positive dynamic, is very, very dangerous. I think I saw him playing in Halle some great matches. Here I saw him play the other day against Cilic. He was playing great.”

Sousa may finally have some momentum, but he no longer has a friendly draw like he did through three rounds. Not at all, in fact. Nadal looked scary, title-contending good throughout the first week, and a counter-punching kind of opponent has almost never been one to give him trouble.

Pick: Nadal in 3 losing 8-10 games

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10 Comments on Wimbledon R4 preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Sousa

  1. Rafa will definitely get a test from Querrey. It goes without saying that Rafa will have to hold his serve at all costs. I will be nervous for this one. Querrey is playing well and has no pressure, nothing to lose. I expect him to go for his shots. But Rafa has looked extremely good. He is playing outstanding tennis, so I like his chances.

  2. PK in response to your earlier question I don’t like it if Rafa is playing second after a match with the potential to go long. Presumably Pella and RBA could go 5 with long rallies? I don’t want there to be any possibility that they end up playing under the sodding roof because of poor light. It’s supposed to be hotter tomorrow which is good.

    • I doubt Pella is going five sets with Agut; Agut would run him rugged well before he could go five sets with Agut. I think Agut in three or four sets.

      I think Rafa could maybe start his match at 4.30 or 5pm local time. Interesting to see who needs the longest time to beat his opponent in the QF among these guys.

    • Yea it’s one thing to start at a scheduled time vs having to wait for a potentially long match to finish. Let’s just hope Lucky is right and Nadal starts soon enough.

      My worry worry worry starts tomorrow 🤣

      • I am not going to worry until tomorrow. If’s been such a great ride and a pleasure to see Rafa playing so well. I am just enjoying every moment.

        I was not nervous for either Tsonga or Sousa. I was very nervous for Kyrgios! I am nervous for Querrey. Big servers have a real advantage on the grass. But I feel that Rafa is very focused right now and will bring it in this match.

        I am not making any prediction. I do expect a tough match. But I think Rafa is ready.

          • Yes he is more than ready this time. Normally that would make me extra nervous, because to me Rafa has had his fair share of narrow losses in Wimbledon apart from Novak last year, even the Muller and Rosol ones were close and could have been his. Anyway this time around, he is calm, focussed and his game is on. I believe he is well placed to take care of Querrey…. one match at a time. Cheers!

        • Nny, I agree I was nervous for Kyrgios only because he would have been extra nasty about it had he won and I would have gone insane if that had happened.

          I wasnt nervous for Tsonga or Sousa either and I would say its pretty much the same for Querrey. I think the fear stems more from his win on Djokovic but that was three years ago and he is not getting any younger either.

          Having said that, tennis is a game of small margins and things have to go Nadals way in the first set or it gets complicated.

  3. My guess is this time, Rafa has overcome one of the darkest moments in his career, during the European clay season, and to win his 12th FO, and so that has given him hope and confidence, that he can overcome any other obstacle in front of him.

    I think that may be why he’s so determined and confident when playing against Kyrgios, and that win against Kyrgios ( it’s not only a simple revenge, but also the five years of having to endure all the doubts and questioning each time Rafa has to face Kyrgios, it’s both insulting and hurting to Rafa).

    I’m glad Rafa passed the test, and I feel that had liberated him, and that’s why he’s playing at such a high level from match to match even on grass. If he continues to play like this, he should be able to beat Querrey.

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