Wimbledon best bets: Women’s quarterfinals

Elina Svitolina and Simona Halep pose at the trophy ceremony after the final at the Internazionali BNL d'Italia in Rome/WTA Tennis

The men and women are playing on opposite days the rest of the way at Wimbledon, where Tuesday marks the first Ladies Day when it comes to singles. An all-American showdown between Serena Williams and Alison Riske is part of the schedule.

Here are some of the best WTA bets for Tuesday and beyond:

(11) Serena Williams vs. Alison Riske

Riske has now reached at least the third round at Wimbledon four times; she has reached the third round at all other slams combined just three times. She also recently captured the second title of her career on the grass of ‘s-Hertogenbosch. The 55th-ranked American is the last of a dying breed on both the women’s and men’s tours: the grass-court specialist. Maintaining momentum in London, Riske continued her run with a 3-6, 6-2, 6-3 victory over world No. 1 and reigning Roland Garros champion Ashleigh Barty on Manic Monday. Serena may still be the most physically dominant player in the sport at 37 years, but she is prone to the odd lackluster performance on any given day. It is hard for her to string together seven straight wins at a major. She hasn’t done it since the 2017 Australian Open.

Pick: Riske +5 games

Parlay: (7) Simona Halep vs. Shuai Zhang and (19) Johanna Konta vs. Barbora Strycova

In the fourth round, Halep ended Coco Gauff’s memorable run in convincing 6-3, 6-3 fashion. Konta is coming off a 4-6, 6-4, 6-2 defeat of two-time Wimbledon winner Petra Kvitova. The British hope also made a recent run to the French Open semifinals, so it’s obvious she is one of the best players on tour right now regardless of surface. Zhang and Strycova are two unseeded opponents who will likely be overmatched.

Pick: Halep to win and Konta to win

(8) Elina Svitolina vs. Karolina Muchova

Svitolina was not at her best previously in the summer, but that can basically be chalked up to injuries. She is healthy now, and playing like a different woman in SW19. The world No. 8 has surrendered only one set en route to the quarterfinals and most recently trounced French Open quarterfinalist Petra Martic 6-4, 6-2. Svitolina also knows what she is doing at slams; his is her fifth trip to a quarterfinal. Although just two years Svitolina’s junior (22 to 24), Muchova has far less experience. The 68th-ranked Czech had won only three total slam matches in her entire career prior to this fortnight. Muchova survived a 4-6, 7-5, 13-11 thriller against Karolina Pliskova on Monday that lasted three hours and 17 minutes. On zero days of rest, this is going to be a quick turnaround.

Pick: Svitolina -3.5 games

Title odds

Serena Williams +145
Simona Halep +250
Johanna Konta +400
Elina Svitolina +900
Alison Riske +1200
Barbora Strycova +2500
Karolina Muchova +2500
Shuai Zhang +3300

Serena is the obvious favorite, but +145 is not great value at this point. That makes her not much worse than even moneey against the entire rest of the field. Svitolina has been in stellar form this fortnight and has what should be a friendly quarterfinal draw against Muchova. Halep in the semis would be a difficult proposition, but Svitolina leads that head-to-head series 4-3. And by the time Svitolina possibly reaches the final, Serena may have already lost on the other side of the draw to either Riske or Konta.

Best value: Svitolina +900

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3 Comments on Wimbledon best bets: Women’s quarterfinals

  1. I was surprised Konta took out Kvitova, but as you say she’s obviously playing well. I don’t see her as great value at +400, though; ditto for Serena.

    Personally, I’ve been extremely impressed with Zhang in the two matches I’ve seen her play, including taking out Wozniacki. I’d put her as best value as the longest shot. Next would have to be Riske. If she can continue playing like she did in sets 2 and 3 again Barty, it’s hard for me to imagine her losing.So she’d be by second best value prop.

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