Saturday best bets (2024 record: 133-136, -22.31 units; Weekly record: 3-6, -3.30 units)
Joao Fonseca +3.5 games over Cameron Norrie (-128) – To say that Fonseca is the real deal would be an understatement. The 17-year-old Brazilian has all the tools and he is especially equipped for success on clay. He opened in Madrid with a three-set win over fellow rising star Alex Michelsen, a match Fonseca completely dominated following a slow start in the first set. As for Norrie, he has struggled in 2024 and could get overpowered by his much bigger-hitting opponent in quick conditions. This match will be on Fonseca’s racket, so if he plays up to his potential he should even win outright.
Leylah Fernandez over Ons Jabeur (+110) – Whenever you can fade Jabeur as a favorite these days, it’s an opportunity that should be taken. The Tunisian has lost six of her last eight matches and looks completely lost both mentally and physically. She somehow got through her first-round match against Anna-Karolina Schmiedlova, but it was a roller-coaster of emotions the entire way. Fernandez, who is in solid but unspectacular form, disposed of Anastasia Potapova in routine straight sets. The Canadian is playing well enough to capitalize on a struggling opponent.
Parlay: Grigor Dimitrov over Jakub Mensik and Frances Tiafoe over Pedro Cachin (+100) – Mensik is a dangerous player, but he has cooled off considerably since a runner-up performance in Doha and he is relative novice on clay. Dimitrov is on fire regardless of the surface and should be able to maintain his hot streak. Meanwhile, Tiafoe has struggled in 2024 but against this particular opponent he should be a safe play. Nobody on the ATP Tour has been a bigger disaster this season than Cachin. Going into Madrid the Argentine was 0-11 for the year and on a ridiculous 15-match losing streak dating back to last October. He beat a similarly out-of-form Sebastian Ofner on Thursday, but Cachin should continue to be faded under basically all circumstances.
Best underdog value:
Fernandez (+110) over Jabeur
Machac (+112) over Shelton
Fonseca (+184) over Norrie
Best favorite value:
Navarro (-150) over Haddad Maia
Lehecka (-120) over Medjedovic
Tiafoe (-205) over Cachin
Other top match picks
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WTA picks
Swiatek over Cirstea in 2
Gauff over Yastremska in 2
Sakkari over Stephens in 2
Fernandez over Jabeur in 2
Samsonova over Keys in 3
Azarenka over Sorribes Tormo in 2
Ostapenko over Carle in 2
Navarro over Haddad Maia in 3
Weekly WTA record: 31-31 (correct # of sets in winning picks: 18 out of 31)
Best weekly futures bets
– Aryna Sabalenka to win Madrid (3 units at +650)
– Coco Gauff to win Madrid (2 units at +1600)
– Victoria Azarenka to win Madrid (1 unit at +13000)
– Jannik Sinner to win Madrid (3 units at +260)
– Hubert Hurkacz to win Madrid (2 units at +3500)
– Daniil Medvedev to win Madrid (1 unit at +2000)
Futures betting: +40.55 units through April 21
– Grigor Dimitrov to win Brisbane (3 units at +600)
– Andrey Rublev to win Hong Kong (3 units at +260)
– Aryna Sabalenka to win Australian Open (3 units at +400)
– Jannik Sinner to win Australian Open (3 units at +700)
– Alexander Bublik to win Montpellier (1 unit at +550)
– Ugo Humbert to win Marseille (1 unit at +800)
– Tommy Paul to win Dallas (2 units at +450)
– Alex de Minaur to win Acapulco (3 units at +700)
– Iga Swiatek to win Indian Wells (3 units at +275)
– Jannik Sinner to win Miami (3 units at +300)
– Jan-Lennard Struff to win Munich (1 unit at +1600)
– Casper Ruud to win Barcelona (2 units at +550)
2024 WTA record: 383-242 (correct # of sets in winning picks: 220 out of 383)
2023 WTA record: 951-518 (correct # of sets in winning picks: 618 out of 951)
2022 WTA record: 1084-510 (correct # of sets in winning picks: 714 out of 1084)
2021 WTA record: 1543-765 (correct # of sets in winning picks: 1043 out of 1543)
2020 WTA record: 402-221 (correct # of sets in winning picks: 254 out of 402)
2023 Best Bets record: 275-267-12
2022 Best Bets record: 255-234-6
2021 Best Bets record: 403-391-12
2020 Best Bets record: 173-135-7
Nice picks with Timofeeva (close)
And De Minaur
You need Djokovic makes the final to make up for your deficit this event
Keep rigging.
Suck on da weeeeeenz
Please tell me Zhang beats Kovacevic today. If so my $30 bet takes home $2160. All legs won yesterday with just a Zhang victory remaining. I think if I live bet and can get Kovacevic at +200 or better I might hedge and guarantee a nice payday. Keep up the good work!
Zhang should win comfortably
bad surface for Kovacevic, very good for Zhang. Kovacevic only beat Thompson in Acapulco because Thompson was gassed.
Mensik is a great talent and played extremely well. Hurkacz’s serve will probably be the difference.
Norrie is in great form, so will be interesting to see how this one pans out.
Zverev in 3 or 4
Get a life weirdo
I’m rolling dice on an aggressive Sakkari to bully Iga Siatek at those odds. She has a look and confidence. She won me ÷340 odds after losing 1st game in 3rd set vs Gauff 6-2. And I’ll hedge my action with +6.5 games and Medvedev
I like Sakkari to be competitive…but not to win.
Love wawrinka taking FAA as well Raonic in upsets today
nice call on Milos
So many swings in clay courts!!! I never bet against shelton and of course he crushed 4 winning parlays yesterday. I should have just bet 3 sets….lol
Love this site, I’m glad more people are starting to interact. I’ve visited this site everyday for like 1+ yr. Love the consistency; but most importantly, The great picks!
I have kenin crushing volleynets swrve today for a victory. I know she hasn’t been playing well but she will win in miami.
ouch!
Appreciate your thoughts / picks for WTA 500 Stuttgart because Errani overcame Kalinskaya in 3 Qualifying but she was the underdog so I lost my wager:(
Thanks for your insight!
what crappy calls today.. not even close