It’s generally a good thing to secure a top-eight seed at Grand Slam. After all, it means you are guaranteed to avoid the No. 1 through No. 4 seeds at least until the quarterfinals.
In the case of the 2026 U.S. Open, being a 5-8 seed may end up being a nightmare. That’s because each member of that quartet will be on course to meet a 9-12 seed in the fourth round. And this tournament’s 9-12 contingent is absolutely stacked. Taylor Fritz is No. 9, Arthur Fils is No. 10, Frances Tiafoe is No. 11, and Rafael Jodar is No. 12.
It should go without saying how strong that group is, but…let’s say it:
Taylor Fritz – If not for knee tendinitis, Fritz would be the top eight — if not even the top four. The 28-year-old American has reached at least the quarterfinals in three consecutive U.S. Opens and his current hard-court summer already features a title in Washington, D.C. and a quarterfinal performance in Montreal.
Arthur Fils – Perhaps nobody heads to New York hotter than Fils, who won the Cincinnati Masters title on Sunday. That was preceded by a quarterfinal effort in Montreal. Although the 22-year-old Frenchman has never done anything at a Grand Slam, that is entirely due to a long list of injuries. Finally, Fils is healthy going into a major.
Frances Tiafoe – Tiafoe finished runner-up to Fils in Cincinnati, where he defeated Learner Tien, Felix Auger-Aliassime, Lorenzo Musetti, and a red-hot Brandon Nakashima. Now the 28-year-old American arrives at his favorite tournament. He has advanced to the semifinals twice in his last four trips to Flushing Meadowns in addition to a quarterfinal result in 2023.
Rafael Jodar – Like Fils, Jodar is on fire. In fact, Fils’ only two losses on this North American hard-court swing have come to Jodar (Washington, D.C. and Montreal). The 19-year-old Spaniard reached the final in D.C., the semis in Montreal, and the fourth round in Cincy. He was also a quarterfinalist at Roland Garros.
As for the 5-8 pod, it consists of Flavio Cobolli, Alex de Minaur, Daniil Medvedev, and Ben Shelton. That means the potential fourth-round matches in New York are Cobolli, De Minaur, Medvedev, and Shelton vs. Fritz, Fils, Tiafoe, and Jodar. Yes, the fourth and fifth favorites to win the entire tournament — Shelton and Jodar — could go head-to-head as early as round four. A former champion (Medvedev 2021) could face a former runner-up (Fritz 2024) in an effort to simply reach the quarterfinals.
How good is the 9-12 group, especially compared to 5-8? The lower-seeded player would be — or at least should be — favored in three of those four potential scenarios (the match involving Shelton likely being the only exception).
We will see exactly how the draw shakes out on Thursday afternoon. Regardless, some scorching-hot fourth-round matchups are guaranteed to be in the cards.
get your popcorn ready
9-12 seeds are very dangerous….but there are some tricky 13-20 seeds as well….will be fun to watch!
On paper 9-12 seeds appear stronger than usual but this is primarily because the current 5-8 seeds are either weaker than usual and/or more one dimensional, limited or past their prime. Shelton was simply absent all year till Wimbledon + he has too many horrendous days as a returner.
De Minaur can run all day but not enough fire power. Medvedev still capable of playing well every now and then but apparently past his prime and Cabolli neither solid nor consistent.
This is looking like an excellent US Open for spectators. So many popcorn matches: so much red-hot new talent plus established fantastic players, and quality players hitting purple patches or finding another level.