Wimbledon R4 previews and predictions: Federer vs Berrettini, Goffin vs. Verdasco

Eight-time Wimbledon champion Roger Federer continues his 2019 campaign against a red-hot Matteo Berrettini on the second Monday. Meanwhile, David Goffin takes on the crafty veteran Fernando Verdasco for a place in the quarterfinals.

(2) Roger Federer vs. (17) Matteo Berrettini

Roger Federer’s relatively comfortable draw at the All-England Club is quite likely to come to an abrupt end on Monday. The No. 2 seed’s fourth-round opponent is one of the hottest grass-court players on the tour. Matteo Berrettini came out of nowhere last month to win Stuttgart and followed up that surprise title with a semifinal showing in Halle.

Federer, who is one of the greatest grass-court players of all time, certainly has the goods to handle Berrettini–but current form suggests that this match is going to be far from routine. In Federer’s favor is that Berrettini spent four hours and five grueling sets to get past Diego Schwartzman in the third round on Saturday. Match fatigue is a real danger for the Italian. Further, Centre Court has been Federer’s personal playground since he first won Wimbledon in 2003. There is little doubt that he will have the full support of the crowd.

Thanks to Federer’s experience in best-of-five matches and Berrettini’s efforts to make the second week, the Swiss will have the advantage on Monday. But Berrettini may well snag a set or two from the Maestro in the process.

Cheryl pick: Federer in 4

Ricky pick: Federer in 4

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(21) David Goffin vs. Fernando Verdasco

Spanish veteran Fernando Verdasco has done well to get to the fourth round. He gave a thrilling performance in the second round to get past British hope Kyle Edmunds in five tough sets and was rewarded with a crack at the world No. 89 Thomas Fabbiano in the third–which resulted in a straight-set affair. Verdasco is not a typical clay-loving Spaniard; he had a good quarterfinal result in Eastbourne to prepare for this fortnight.

David Goffin is on a hot streak at the moment. The Belgian advanced to the final in Halle, where he lost to Roger Federer, and he had a quarterfinal result in s-Hertogenbosch to kick off his grass season. Goffin produced an outstanding five-set win over the No. 11 seed Daniil Medvedev in the third round, but it took him five sets to get past the Russian.

Goffin and Verdasco are no strangers to each other. They have met six times and split wins at three apiece, although they have never met on grass. Goffin has been the better player through the first week of play, but Verdasco certainly knows how to dig in and put up a fight. The Belgian has the edge; still, Verdasco should give himself at least some chances for the upset.

Cheryl pick: Goffin in 4

Ricky pick: Goffin in 5

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28 Comments on Wimbledon R4 previews and predictions: Federer vs Berrettini, Goffin vs. Verdasco

    • Berrettini can definately win a set, he deserves to win a set. With an extra days rest after a 5-setter he should be well rested and dialed in also.

  1. Fed in three and Verdasco in five.

    Fed should be playing at a high level by now and Berrettini will be tired after playing 4+ hours with only a day’s rest after that. He has played lots of tennis already this grass season.

    Verdasco enjoys the fight so he’ll probably go five sets with Goffin before winning.

  2. With the extra days rest, im leaning towards Goffin.
    Even without an extra days rest and coming off a 5-setter, I still give Berrettini a chance of winning a set. However, Fed is not the ideal matchup for him and could just as easily lose in straight regardless of physical condition.

    • If Medevedev could only to win 2 sets, I doubt Verdasco will do better. Medevdev destroyed Verdasco. i know who’d I’d rather have my money on that’s for sure. Imagine having 100K sitting on Verdasco to win this match. I think i’d have a heart attack every time he served.

      • Verdasco is solid at Wimbledon. I wouldn’t put too much stock in a Queen’s Club result at this point in his career.

    • He’s answered every question Querrey has asked of him. Querrey wins first point on his serve, bang he wins the next 2. every time.

  3. Federer with an absolute master-class today, upping his level significantly from where it’s been. He could use another match like this in the QF to prepare for the last two, though I doubt Nishikori will be so obliging.

    • I didn’t see his match today, but he looked a bit better from the (useless) Wimbledon highlights and his stats were good.

      Hard to say if he really upped his level or not given that his opponent wasn’t exactly up for a fight, but nice to get an easy win in any event.

      If Fed can get past Nishikori it’ll be good experience. Before having to face Rafa he would need at least one test against an opponent who gets a fair number of balls back in a rally.

        • It’s true that Nishikori is the kind of guy who almost always loses to the big 3-4, but generally beats everyone else (ala Ferrer) but you still can’t take him lightly. It took 5 sets for Fed to get him at the 2017 AO. Or look back at the 2014 US Open; Fed’s Wimbledon loss in 2013. We look at certain matches like they are a sure thing but ultimately everything boils down to probability.

          • I think Nishikori is going to be more dangerous than usual because he hasn’t worn himself out in the early rounds like he normally does. Fed will have to be very sharp to avoid being dragged into a 4 hour contest that will hurt his title chances. And if he comes out flat Kei could definitely pull off the upset. OTOH, if he plays and serves like he did against Berrettini he should win this in straights.

      • Fed thinks the slow court helped him against Berrettini. He has a point that a guy who’s hitting 130 mph serves should have more than 3 aces. Pretty much everyone is saying the courts are the slowest they’ve ever been, which helps explain why so many clay courters are doing well.

        • Yeah after leaving the court his comments were kinda dour on the court conditions, basically intimating that it wasn’t fast.

          That being said, Berrettini didn’t appear to get many first serves to begin with so it’s not that surprising. Fed also often cuts off the angle for big servers, which can reduce the ace count a little.

  4. Fed said it’s either the court speed or the balls! And Fed and Rafa both said that the balls are heavier this year.

    Fed also said that it’s cooler in the evening so maybe the moisture affected the balls.

    Why are people speculating? Why not they raise the issue with the Wimbledon organisers and see what they have to say?

    Berrittini couldn’t hit his big serves that well may be because he’s a bit tired from his previous match? Only he himself knows the answer.

    • It may just be that they changed the balls, who knows.

      Personally I don’t have a big issue here or believe there has been a conspiracy or anything like that. Sometimes organisers just change something which affects the conditions and there isn’t necessarily anything nefarious about it, it may be done as a more efficient procedure or for commercial reasons. The AO got faster after they changed the surface, but it probably wasn’t done to ‘advantage’ any particular player, they just changed the timing on when they relaid the surface. The US Open has gotten slower, again, probably not for any particular player(s). Then there’s the Wimbledon grass which got slower after 2001, this year conditions are apparently even slower but it may only be that they changed the balls (who knows why, but sometimes they do) or that a hot summer has dried the surface.

      I think there is a case to be made for more transparency on these matters, which may help avoid some of the speculation. Still, you are always going to get people complaining, hardcore fans saying ‘their’ player has been disadvantaged and looking for things to explain loss(es).

      Generally I would also be against surfaces becoming more homogenized (i.e. too similar in pace, bounce, feel) as I prefer there to be a bit of a difference which you have to try and adjust & master the different conditions. It’s a similar thing in a game like cricket. That being said, I’m not sure you want to force certain tournaments into running things a certain way, never being able to change the courts, balls etc.

  5. Anyway, whether the courts are quicker or slower, Djoko and Rafa could still win at Wimbledon (Rafa 2008/2010; Djoko 2011, 2014,2015,2018).

    Big servers like Isner, Anderson, Cilic, Raonic still couldn’t win at Wimbledon all these years, losing to the big four, whether the courts were quicker or slower.

  6. Roger v/s Berrettini was a masterclass in grass-court tennis by Roger. “The legend has it that Berrettini took out his checkbook and offered to compensate Federer, during the hand-shake at the net, but Federer refused to accept any for the first lesson. The business-minded Roger, however, put Matteo on notice to keep the check ready for their next meeting.” http://www.138mph.com/wimbledon-goffin-pella-agut-querrey-join-veterans-federer-nadal-djokovic-and-nishikori-in-quarterfinals/

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