Jannik Sinner pulled out of the U.S. Open last Friday with a bad right knee. That alone would be plenty of big news for the U.S. Open. It isn’t close to all of it.
Carlos Alcaraz has not struck a competitive ball since April, when a right wrist injury pulled him out of Barcelona and then out of Roland Garros, Wimbledon, Toronto, and Cincinnati. Four months and change. He’s the defending champion, and he’ll walk into Arthur Ashe Stadium having played precisely zero matches since spring. Novak Djokovic, meanwhile, spent his Cincinnati week squatting between points, vomiting on court, and eventually surrendering a match he had comfortably in hand. He explained afterward that the conditions weren’t the problem, that he’s been managing a health issue “for many years” that flares in heat and humidity. Djokovic is 39 years old — and New York in late August is a convection oven with corporate suites and catering.
Add up the absences and the question marks and you get something the men’s tour hasn’t offered in a very long time, which is an honest-to-God open field.
The oddsmakers have Alcaraz at +140 to win the title, and if you want one number that captures how peculiar this fortnight is, that’s the one. A man who hasn’t competed since the spring, whose wrist is a total unknown, whose hard-court preparation consisted of hitting with Holger Rune in Murcia, is an overwhelming favorite. Not because anyone is confident in him but because nobody is confident in anybody else.
Which brings me to Alexander Zverev, whom I am forced to mention as a favorite. The German finally broke through at Roland Garros in June, outlasting Flavio Cobolli over five sets for his first major. He’s the top seed now that Sinner is gone, and by any reasonable reading the most credible threat in the field. But even that’s shaky, because Taylor Fritz is lurking, and Fritz has spent years as a problem Zverev can’t entirely solve. The American leads their head-to-head series 10-6, and notably won seven matches in a row until he lost at Wimbledon a couple of months ago. Fritz is a legitimate threat.
An American man hasn’t captured a Grand Slam title since Andy Roddick at this tournament in 2003. Twenty-two years. If nobody breaks through we’ll be counting to 23, and I have heard “this is the year” so many times that I hardly pay it any attention. And yet. Ben Shelton defended his Canadian Open title three weeks ago, beating Brandon Nakashima in an all-American final. Frances Tiafoe reached the Cincinnati final on Sunday. Fritz has already been to a U.S. Open final.
At the risk of jumping the gun, this may actually be the year. For real.
The kids aren’t waiting politely, either. Rafael Jodar was ranked 895th in the world at the start of last year. He is now 11th, a Roland Garros quarterfinalist at 19, a Montreal semifinalist, and roughly one good week from a top-10 debut. Arthur Fils just pocketed the Cincinnati trophy over Tiafoe for his maiden Masters 1000 title, ending a 12-year French wait at that level. Fils arrives in New York the hottest player in the field. Learner Tien is 20, ranked 13th, and spent January dismantling Daniil Medvedev in straight sets en route to the Australian Open quarterfinals. Tien is a left-handed counter-puncher who beats you by making you hit one more ball than you want to, which is a deeply obnoxious skill to face in humid, five-set tennis.
We have had more than 20 years of knowing. Roger Federer, then Federer and Rafael Nadal, then Djokovic and Nadal and Federer, then Djokovic more or less alone, and finally a seamless handoff to Sinner and Alcaraz — who between them have hoarded nearly everything worth having. It has been a gorgeous run and star power matters. I love that men’s tennis has produced so many bona fide stars. I wouldn’t trade a minute of it. But I had forgotten what it feels like to simply not know.
The draw ceremony is Thursday. Whatever story crawls out of Flushing Meadows over the next two weeks, I doubt it’s going to be predictable.
now is the time for an American man to win it
It’s 2002 since the last Australian man won a Grand Slam, though our last woman, Ash Barty, did it in 2022 and the US ladies have also not had a long drought. I wonder what it is about our blokes versus the ladies! It’s like there’s a more level playing field somehow in women’s tennis. Also there was that LOOONG domination of male tennis by three European blokes…
Which is one reason I was unexcited by the prospect of another domination of male tennis by a small thimbleful of Europeans (or anyone). Although Fils and Jodar, the current big bright new things, are also European!
I’ll be cheering Tien, Tiafoe and Nakashima especially because it’s their home slam and just maybe… Fritz has that knee and a lot of nearlies, and Tommy Paul can play so well but hasn’t broken through at this level. But heck, I’ll cheer them on anyway.
I’ll be cheering on a lot of people for different reasons and very much look forward to this one; it promises an above-average number of super interesting, red-hot and close matches from start to finish and yes, finally a Grand Slam where the outcome isn’t basically a foregone conclusion of just one or two people.💥