French Open SF preview and prediction: Djokovic vs. Tsitsipas

World No. 1 Novak Djokovic will battle an inspired Stefanos Tsitsipas on Friday, with a spot in the French Open final the reward for the winner.

Until his quarterfinal match on Wednesday against Pablo Carreno Busta, top seed Novak Djokovic looked like he might just make it through the 2020 season without losing…at least not at the hands of another player. He had been fierce throughout the fortnight in Paris and he obviously went into it as the prohibitive favorite over the Spaniard.

But then a neck injury in the warmup left the Serb in trouble in the opening set, and he was seen by the trainer. Carreno Busta snagged the first set but ended up losing in four.

After the match, Djokovic said, “Well, I definitely didn’t feel great coming into the court today…. Few things happened in the warmup. I had to deal with those physical issues coming onto the court.”

The extent of the injury and whether it will affect his semifinal against Stefanos Tsitsipas remains to be seen. But injury or not, Tsitsipas is no joke of an opponent. The Greek, into his first French Open semifinal, has played himself into impressive form in Paris.

Tsitsipas came into Paris directly off a run to the final in Hamburg, where he was just edged out by Andrey Rublev. The world No. 6 had a tough opener against Jaume Munar, but he has been nearly flawless since, downing each opponent–including Rublev and No. 18 seed Grigor Dimitrov–in straight sets.

Djokovic and Tsitsipas are not strangers. This will be their sixth meeting in just over two years. Djokovic has a 3-2 winning record, a slim margin that gives no hint that Tsitsipas is particularly intimidated by the world No. 1.

If Djokovic is at all hampered by the neck/shoulder injury he sustained on Wednesday, we may well see an upset in the top half of the draw. In fact, even if Djokovic is 100 percent Tsitsipas is capable of the upset. Still, with the way Djokovic has played all year, it’s hard to pick against him.

Cheryl pick: Djokovic in 5

Ricky pick: Tsitsipas in 5

315
WWW: Djokovic vs. Tsitsipas?

18 Comments on French Open SF preview and prediction: Djokovic vs. Tsitsipas

  1. Tough match the final. 50/50 I reckon, just depends on how they execute in the day on the critical points.

    Bookies have instilled Nadal as favourite, probably due to his clay record, record at Roland Garros, the fact that he hasn’t dropped a set and the fitness edge.

    I say Nadal wins in 5 (maybe 4) if he had a blinder.

  2. Some of the bookies opened with Djokovic as favorite. Since then there has been a big swing in favor of Nadal. Now 1.65.

  3. I hope Nadal loses but I’m in doubt.

    Nadal is too good on clay and likes this tournament hopefully Nadal loses.

    Novak must be exhausted but he is a true champion after the disqualification in New York he ain’t joking with anyone he is coming for Nadal and all you rafans 😂😂😂.

    Rafans better wear diapers in the finals you will need it 😅

  4. After watching how Djoko messed up in the match with Stefanos, the bookies now are giving Rafa some chances of winning.

    Stefanos or Tsitsipas had plenty of chances with BPs in the first two sets but as usual, he often didn’t play well to take them. He’s slow to start and took time to warm up, that’s the problem with him; it’s only when he’s about to lose in straight sets that he woke up, changed his strategy, going DTL more often than just going CC all the time and that caught Djoko by surprise.

    Had Tsitsipas woken up earlier in set one or two, things might have been different for him (given that he had >10 BP chances in the first two sets. Tsitsipas had himself to blame for losing, Djoko had made enough errors to offer him so many BP chances, so Tsitsipas was obviously not good enough a player to be in a slam final.

  5. Well, I honestly didn’t think this tournament would be played this year, but given that it was going to be, it was hard to bet against this being the final. This is as close to a toss-up as a match can be, imo. On the one hand, it seems insane to bet against Nadal at this tournament. On the other, it is undeniable that Djokovic has had his number lately. Unlike Fed, he has actually beaten Rafa here, even if it was a reduced version of him. I also suspect Novak may have a little extra motivation from missing out at the USO.

    Most likely Novak in a tight five sets, with a very small chance of a much easier victory if Rafa gets nervous/doesn’t show up.

  6. Nadal hasn’t had any real lapses winning all his matches in straight sets and is carrying more weight which suggests he should be solid for the duration of the match.

    I hope he gives Djokovic the spanking he deserves.

    • Yes plenty, and that’s why he offered Tsitsipas 15 BP chances, most of them were during set one and two. Strange thing is Djoko won that two sets; he didn’t offer many BP chances in the third and fourth sets yet he lost both sets.

      While Tsitsipas raised his level in set three and four, Djoko started making more errors and Tsitsipas was hitting and attacking using his DTL shots more often, making Djoko guessing which way Tsitsipas’s shots were coming from.

      In the first two sets, despite all the BPs faced, Djoko was serving well to save them but come the third and fourth sets, Djoko couldn’t sustain his high level so he’s making more errors which Tsitsipas took advantage of. Tsitsipas ran out of steam in the fifth set hence Djoko won the set quite comfortably.

      Djoko made use of the drop shots wisely, catching Tsitsipas so often; time and again, Tsitsipas couldn’t get to the drop shots. Tsitsipas otoh threw in some dumb drop shots of his own but mostly not very successful ones, because he was hitting them CC so often to the side where Djoko was; had he hit the drop shots DTL like the way Djoko did, making Djoko ran a bit more, perhaps he could have more successes.

      • Lucky ..what do you think is final prediction ?

        I desp want rafa to win this ..but I feel the lack of match play ,conditions ,djoko in his head may tilt this towards Djokovic..I hope rafa n moya have seen novak using these droppers a lot n have a counter plan…rafas serve is vulnerable …I fear rafa is not tested enough n has not played that well in both qf n sf

        • I’ve posted something in that Rafa vs Schwarzman thread. My opinion is Rafa is playing better tennis than Djoko here, I think Rafa will win this one, probably in four sets.

          I even think that had Tsitsipas changed his game plan after losing the first set, he might end up winning the match in four sets. Djoko obviously couldn’t handle Tsitsipas’s varieties in set three and four, so if Tsitsipas played that way starting from set two, he would have enough energy to win the three sets to win the match. It took him too long to change things, hence he ran out of energy in the end.

          • Tsitsipas’s coach really has to help him to understand, that you can’t afford to waste time and energy sticking to a game plan that couldn’t work.

            Everyone knows that if you stick with your usual game, you’re not going to beat the TOP two guys, because usually your game is not good enough (that’s why they’re ranked TOP two ahead of everyone else). So, in order to have any chances against the TOP two, you need to move out of your comfort zone, take more risk, willing to attack them at all cost.

            Tsitsipas was so comfortable going CC all the time, even after losing the first set, he still played the same way and expected a different outcome in set two. Those players who beat the TOP two, eg Schwartzman at Rome vs Rafa, or Khachanov at Paris Masters in 2018 vs Djoko, they both went all out to attack, almost relentlessly, and that’s why they won their matches. Had they stick with their usual game, they would have lost.

  7. The extra benefit of the drop shot is it drains the opponent. Maybe a contributor to Tsits going away in the 5th. I expect a very tight final. It’s Nadals home but Djoko will give it every thing and has the recent H2H/mental edge.

  8. Just seeing n hearing opinions from fed fans..90 percent want rafa to win this .they r ok with rafa tying fed as they feel the respect between rafa n fed is enormous ..they feel if novak wins .fed no 1 weeks is surely gone .if not someone can take out novak at ao..n snatch the no 1 back from him

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.