French Open SF preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Schwartzman

Diego Schwartzman has been the biggest story of the abbreviated 2020 clay-court swing. He upset Rafael Nadal en route to the final of the Rome Masters and outlasted U.S. Open champion Dominic Thiem in a French Open quarterfinal match that lasted more than five hours.

Nadal in Rome and Thiem at Roland-Garros were extremely tough tests, and now Schwartzman faces the toughest test of all: Nadal in the semifinals of a tournament that the Spaniard has won 12 times.

Friday’s meeting will be the 11th of their careers, and the Argentine’s victory last month in Rome was his first. Nadal had previously been sweeping the head-to-head series 9-0, including 22-2 in total sets. One of those sets won by Schwartzman came at none other than the French Open, when Nadal prevailed 4-6, 6-3, 6-2, 6-2 in the 2018 quarterfinals.

Nobody has managed to take a set off the King of Clay this fortnight even though fall conditions in Paris may not be as ideal for him as they are in May and June. Nadal eased his way into the semifinals by beating Egor Gerasimov, Mackenzie McDonald, Stefano Travaglia, Sebastian Korda, and Jannik Sinner.

Schwartzman obviously remains in outstanding form on the heels of his runner-up performance in Rome. The world No. 14, who will crack the top 10 for the first time in his career next week, preceded his triumph over Thiem with defeats of Miomir Kecmanovic, Lorenzo Giustino, Norbert Gombos, and Lorenzo Sonego. He had not surrendered a set prior to going up against Thiem.

“It’s a challenge,” Nadal assured. “When you lost to somebody, (it) is because he’s playing well. [Against Thiem] he played an amazing match against one of the best players of the world, without a doubt, especially on this surface. He’s coming with big confidence.”

The Rome result may be big for Schwartzman’s confidence, but it does little to suggest he can do the same in Paris. After all, a best-of-five situation is a whole different beast and so is the stage of Roland-Garros–where Nadal is a laughable 98-2 lifetime.

Two days off will help Schwartzman, who will be fine physically at the start. It is at the business end of the match when the underdog will start to feel the effects of the Thiem match in his legs. Moreover, the conditions are not as bad for Nadal as advertised, so he has every reason to take care of business and avenge the recent Rome loss.

Pick: Nadal in 4

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8 Comments on French Open SF preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Schwartzman

  1. Rafa won in straights (I did not watch as always ) n here the board is filled with comments abt how sluggish he was n how poor his fh was in third…if he was this bad ..he would not win in straights..are u folks being too critical coz if u not. Djoko will eat him up

    • If he played like this particularly in the first set, Novak will eat him up! Novak just becomes an absolute beast whenever he plays Rafa, so Rafa has no choice but to be on his A game, no bloody stupid lapses like in the tail end of 3rd set!!

      VAMOS!!

  2. Rafa really has to up his level in the final, he can’t afford to go to deuce in practically all but one of his service games, that won’t cut it against Tsitsipas or Djoko!

    Rafa please wins your 100th match at RG and wins the title this Sunday!

  3. I rewatched the match; Rafa might not be playing better than in their 2018 encounter but he still won in straight sets! He playing against Schwartzman would be a good preparation for him to meet Djoko in the final, as Schwartzman plays a similar style to Djoko, just not as good. Both Rafa and Djoko faced many BPs in their respective SF match and both managed to hold serve more often than not. I’m not sure Tsitsipas is better than Schwartzman where ROS is concerned.

    Rafa wasn’t playing poorly as he’s handling Schwartzman’s attacks from all directions – CC & DTL from both wings – and still managed to beat him in straight sets.

    Tsitsipas may be a better player than Schwarzman but what he didn’t do in the match was mixing it up with his DTL shots from both wings; instead, he just went CC BH to BH so often that it became so predictable hence Djoko was all ready for that. It’s only when he had lost the second set and staring defeat in its face that he decided to change up, playing with more varieties thus keeping Djoko guessing and so he won the next two sets. I would think that had Tsitsipas changed up after losing the first set, he might have better chances of winning the match.

    I’m sure Rafa will play better in the final, giving it his all; of course Djoko will raise his level too, it may be 50-50 chances for both but I think Rafa will win this one.

    • Luckystar OCTOBER 10, 2020 AT 3:39 AM

      “He playing against Schwartzman would be a good preparation for him to meet Djoko in the final, as Schwartzman plays a similar style to Djoko, just not as good.”
      *********************************

      Exactly my thoughts, Luckystar. Sharing your opinion on playing style means I have arrived because you are the tennis aficionado here.

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