French Open SF preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Schwartzman

Diego Schwartzman has been the biggest story of the abbreviated 2020 clay-court swing. He upset Rafael Nadal en route to the final of the Rome Masters and outlasted U.S. Open champion Dominic Thiem in a French Open quarterfinal match that lasted more than five hours.

Nadal in Rome and Thiem at Roland-Garros were extremely tough tests, and now Schwartzman faces the toughest test of all: Nadal in the semifinals of a tournament that the Spaniard has won 12 times.

Friday’s meeting will be the 11th of their careers, and the Argentine’s victory last month in Rome was his first. Nadal had previously been sweeping the head-to-head series 9-0, including 22-2 in total sets. One of those sets won by Schwartzman came at none other than the French Open, when Nadal prevailed 4-6, 6-3, 6-2, 6-2 in the 2018 quarterfinals.

Nobody has managed to take a set off the King of Clay this fortnight even though fall conditions in Paris may not be as ideal for him as they are in May and June. Nadal eased his way into the semifinals by beating Egor Gerasimov, Mackenzie McDonald, Stefano Travaglia, Sebastian Korda, and Jannik Sinner.

Schwartzman obviously remains in outstanding form on the heels of his runner-up performance in Rome. The world No. 14, who will crack the top 10 for the first time in his career next week, preceded his triumph over Thiem with defeats of Miomir Kecmanovic, Lorenzo Giustino, Norbert Gombos, and Lorenzo Sonego. He had not surrendered a set prior to going up against Thiem.

“It’s a challenge,” Nadal assured. “When you lost to somebody, (it) is because he’s playing well. [Against Thiem] he played an amazing match against one of the best players of the world, without a doubt, especially on this surface. He’s coming with big confidence.”

The Rome result may be big for Schwartzman’s confidence, but it does little to suggest he can do the same in Paris. After all, a best-of-five situation is a whole different beast and so is the stage of Roland-Garros–where Nadal is a laughable 98-2 lifetime.

Two days off will help Schwartzman, who will be fine physically at the start. It is at the business end of the match when the underdog will start to feel the effects of the Thiem match in his legs. Moreover, the conditions are not as bad for Nadal as advertised, so he has every reason to take care of business and avenge the recent Rome loss.

Pick: Nadal in 4

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25 Comments on French Open SF preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Schwartzman

  1. At least Rafa is well on his way to defending his crown and winning his #20 in 2020!

    You hear the commentators already talking about a potential match up with Novak and how much better Novak would be able to counter Rafa’s game and Novak has not even set foot on the court yet. Sigh!! Honestly, these ppl have so shame!

  2. Very relieved to see Rafa’s 2 sets up!! Enjoy reading the comments here, but please guys could we all remember that Rafa DOES know how to play tennis? Especially at RG even under these weird conditions.

    My commies said the other day that Chatrier was not constructed with autumn play in mind – the sun is in weird places making it very hard to deal with, but Rafa is a master of dealing with weird conditions…Probably why they gave Djoker the later match. 🙁

  3. amy,

    Just when I was relaxing, Rafa has gotten the tips on his serve. I really want him to get this done in straight sets. But he is making it hard on himself. You don’t want to give Diego a lifeline.

  4. What is Rafa trying to do? He’s almost at the finish line yet he’s playing like he’s so nervous, and deuce yet again! What?

  5. Lost his serve again! What is this?? His serve is really really poor. If he loses this set, it’s all his own fault! Serving like this, how to win the title? Tsitsipas or Djoko would kill him in the final! Diego doesn’t have a big serve, if not Diego would’ve being leading the match now!

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