French Open SF preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Schwartzman

Diego Schwartzman has been the biggest story of the abbreviated 2020 clay-court swing. He upset Rafael Nadal en route to the final of the Rome Masters and outlasted U.S. Open champion Dominic Thiem in a French Open quarterfinal match that lasted more than five hours.

Nadal in Rome and Thiem at Roland-Garros were extremely tough tests, and now Schwartzman faces the toughest test of all: Nadal in the semifinals of a tournament that the Spaniard has won 12 times.

Friday’s meeting will be the 11th of their careers, and the Argentine’s victory last month in Rome was his first. Nadal had previously been sweeping the head-to-head series 9-0, including 22-2 in total sets. One of those sets won by Schwartzman came at none other than the French Open, when Nadal prevailed 4-6, 6-3, 6-2, 6-2 in the 2018 quarterfinals.

Nobody has managed to take a set off the King of Clay this fortnight even though fall conditions in Paris may not be as ideal for him as they are in May and June. Nadal eased his way into the semifinals by beating Egor Gerasimov, Mackenzie McDonald, Stefano Travaglia, Sebastian Korda, and Jannik Sinner.

Schwartzman obviously remains in outstanding form on the heels of his runner-up performance in Rome. The world No. 14, who will crack the top 10 for the first time in his career next week, preceded his triumph over Thiem with defeats of Miomir Kecmanovic, Lorenzo Giustino, Norbert Gombos, and Lorenzo Sonego. He had not surrendered a set prior to going up against Thiem.

“It’s a challenge,” Nadal assured. “When you lost to somebody, (it) is because he’s playing well. [Against Thiem] he played an amazing match against one of the best players of the world, without a doubt, especially on this surface. He’s coming with big confidence.”

The Rome result may be big for Schwartzman’s confidence, but it does little to suggest he can do the same in Paris. After all, a best-of-five situation is a whole different beast and so is the stage of Roland-Garros–where Nadal is a laughable 98-2 lifetime.

Two days off will help Schwartzman, who will be fine physically at the start. It is at the business end of the match when the underdog will start to feel the effects of the Thiem match in his legs. Moreover, the conditions are not as bad for Nadal as advertised, so he has every reason to take care of business and avenge the recent Rome loss.

Pick: Nadal in 4

380
WWW: Nadal vs. Schwartzman?

26 Comments on French Open SF preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Schwartzman

  1. What’s going on! Why the nervous play suddenly and making errors and wrong choices?
    You would think he was 2 sets down not the other way round!

  2. I am so furious I could scream! Why does it have to be this way? All Rafa needs is to let it go to a fourth set. Sorry, but I can’t take it anymore.

    • Like Thiem, I think he plays a bit conservative. But Thiem was tired, and Rafa still looks rustier than he usually would be. Although it may just be that his movement has declined since last year, I dunno.

      On a surface like this that’s impossible to hit through, Diego is kind of a nightmare.

    • Diego is hard to beat on clay; he’s a mini Djoko, can hit CC and DTL from both wings and that’s what would trouble Rafa even on clay. It’s just that his serve is not great, and that’s why Rafa, Djoko still can overcome him despite all the troubles Diego could give them. Diego could run all day and so that makes it even worse for his opponents.

  3. Yeii, another RG final for Rafa, epic!

    A Very sluggish Nadal managed to beat Diego in 3 sets, something that Thiem couldn’t do so, let’s rejoice about that.
    He’s going to have to get better for the final though

  4. What was so strange is that Rafa was hitting his forehand really well in the first 2 sets. Then he suddenly went into his shell making astonishing errors.

  5. Huh, that was nerve wracking… great tiebreak though! Well, Moya said in one of his interviews that Rafa needs to be tested and needs some tiebreaks to win! Hope this serves the purpose 😀

    13th final!!! Way to go, Rafa! Vamoooosss!!! 💪💪💪

  6. Exactly, don’t know what happened at that time, some brain freeze? He did look tired during the third set. I think maybe his stamina is not up to par yet, after the long break. This is only his second tournament after coming back from the six months break.

  7. So at 2 sets to love and a break up and cruising and in total control.did Rafa’s mad Diego complex suddenly appear??!
    If so he needs a shrink not a coach..

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.