French Open final expert picks: Djokovic vs. Nadal

It will be No. 1 Novak Djokovic vs. No. 2 Rafael Nadal for the French Open title on Sunday afternoon at Roland Garros. Expert picks are back for a match that could hardly get any bigger.

Ricky Dimon: Nadal has quietly righted the ship in his recent head-to-head history with Djokovic heading into Sunday’s French Open final. “Quietly” in the sense that I expected to see Djokovic H2H dominance still in progress when I went to the ATP website for a refresher on their most recent meetings. Well, it turns out Nadal is a respectable 3-3 in their last six. His three wins were “quiet” in the sense that they came outside of Grand Slams and none was particularly competitive. Djokovic, on the other hand, famously triumphed 10-8 in the fifth set in the 2018 Wimbledon semis and in beatdown fashion in the 2019 Australian Open final. But that obviously isn’t to say that the Serb automatically has an edge in any Grand Slam. Results in SW19 and Melbourne–the Spaniard’s two worst majors–mean nothing when it comes to Roland Garros, where he is a laughable 99-2 lifetime. It is also worth noting that during this 3-3 H2H stretch, Nadal is 3-0 on clay and Djokovic is 3-0 on hard/grass. Sure, conditions aren’t quite as perfect as they usually are for Nadal at this event, but Court Philippe-Chatrier is actually playing relatively fast and high-bouncing–more than Lenglen and the outside courts in those departments. Nadal has not dropped a set through six matches, so he isn’t about to drop three in one match alone on Sunday. Nadal in 4: 6-3, 6-7, 6-4, 7-5.

Cheryl Murray: The most prolific rivalry in the history of men’s tennis is about to add a 56th installment on Sunday. Ordinarily I would discuss current form (Nadal has looked more convincing over the fortnight), the head-to-head record (Djokovic has been far more dominant in recent years), and the surface. But in this case, current form and the head-to-head probably won’t mean very much. When they play, that stuff seems to melt away. But surface? Yeah, that matters. The fact that they’re on clay in Paris favors Nadal. There’s a reason he is 99-2 (because seriously, how ridiculous is that statistic?) with 12 titles, and it’s not because he’s extraordinarily lucky. Although the fact that Djokovic gave Nadal a shellacking in their last slam final in Melbourne is a tick in the Serb’s column, in the end this is Nadal on Chatrier in the final…and I just can’t pick against him. Nadal in 4: 7-5, 4-6, 7-6, 6-3.

Pete Ziebron (Tennis Acumen): At first thought, the Djokovic disqualification at the US Open would allow him to prepare more adequately for the “fall” clay court season of 2020. That it most certainly did, as the Serb would record his fifth title in Rome. Nadal’s early exit in Rome at the hands of Schwartzman did provide him with key information on the current game of the Argentine, as he was easily able to defeat him in their rematch in the Roland Garros semifinals.  Both Nadal and Djokovic recorded two bagel sets in the opening three rounds in Paris and from there Nadal continued his blistering pace, winning all 18 sets contested to date. Djokovic will put an end to that impressive string in the final, but on Sunday he will look at the scoreboard and see that he is one set all despite playing exceptional tennis and probably feeling that he should have a two sets to none lead. Nadal yet again prevails as he successfully holds off a valiant and determined effort from Djokovic throughout the match. Nadal in 4: 7-6, 3-6, 6-4, 7-5.