Wimbledon final expert picks: Djokovic vs. Alcaraz

Expert picks are back for the Wimbledon final on Sunday, when seven-time champion Novak Djokovic and word No. 1 Carlos Alcaraz battle for the title. A three-team panel previews the action and makes its predictions.

(1) Carlos Alcaraz vs. (2) Novak Djokovic

Ricky: Novak Djokovic is a 23-time Grand Slam champion and seven-time winner of Wimbledon. Carlos Alcaraz is playing in the fourth grass-court tournament of his career. Advantage: Djokovic? Maybe. But Alcaraz sent a message to both Djokovic and the entire rest of the tour with consecutive straight-set beatdowns of Holger Rune and Daniil Medvedev in the quarterfinals and semifinals, respectively. Even at just 20 years old, Alcaraz has all the tools to give Djokovic a run for his money at the All-England Club. Still, in a long match the Serb will likely have the edge both mentally and physically–especially considering that this is a Grand Slam final. On this kind of stage, experience is a real factor. Djokovic and Alcaraz just recently collided in the French Open semis and the tennis world was deprived of an instant classic. It’s what we all deserve to see in the rematch. Djokovic in 5: 7-6(4), 5-7, 4-6, 6-4, 6-3.

Cheryl: It’s going to be No. 1 vs. No. 2 at Wimbledon on Sunday. A month ago on the red clay of Roland Garros, pundits (including me) had Alcaraz moving through his semifinal showdown with Djokovic. It was going to be the changing of the guard and all of that fun business. Except it wasn’t. Alcaraz inexplicably cramped up after winning the second set and limped through the rest of the match. It was completely unexpected–a mental collapse manifesting itself in cramped thighs. The Spaniard has proven to be resilient in the face of disappointment, so I don’t necessarily count him out…and he has looked outstanding in his last couple of matches. But when you are up against maybe the greatest Wimbledon champion of all time, resilience may not be enough. Djokovic is a mental giant, pulling out his best shots when he needs them most. He is almost absurdly fit, and he’s just better than everyone else on Centre Court and has been for the better part of the last decade. I cannot (will not) pick against Novak Djokovic at Wimbledon. Djokovic in 4: 6-4, 5-7, 7-6(6), 6-3.

Pete (Tennis Acumen): They meet again! Both semifinals won by Djokovic and Alcaraz resulted in one-way traffic, with both victors providing slim opportunities to their opponents in their respective straight-set wins. In this final, we can only hope for the caliber of tennis that we saw in the first two sets of their recent semifinal clash last month at Roland Garros before both the body and mind of Alcaraz failed him in what he was hoping to accomplish against Djokovic. Neither player has lost a match since that day. Alcaraz has more than proven that he has figured out how to play and win on grass since last year’s fourth-round Wimbledon exit at the hands of Jannik Sinner. A large key in this final will be: can he reliably hold serve against Djokovic? Twice in the third set, despite having a firm command on the match against Medvedev, he played poorly in consecutive service games and was broken–allowing the Russian with a pair of chances to find his way back into the set and match. Fortunately for the top seed, this did not happen. It simply can not happen for him to have any chance against Djokovic. Once again, though, the Serb will prove that he is simply “too good” for Alcaraz as he capitalizes on his service breaks and concurrently makes the 20-year-old pay dearly for not holding serve when absolutely necessary. Djokovic in 4: 6-4, 3-6, 6-4, 7-5.