Wimbledon final preview and prediction: Djokovic vs. Alcaraz

Carlos Alcaraz
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Through two sets of their French Open semifinal showdown a little more than a month ago, Novak Djokovic vs. Carlos Alcaraz had the makings of an epic.

Leg cramps suffered by Alcaraz prevented that match from living up to the hype, but the tennis world has another chance to witness an instant classic at the All-England Club.

Djokovic and Alcaraz will wage a rematch on Sunday afternoon, this time in the Wimbledon final. It will mark just the third head-to-head meeting in their careers, with the first two encounters having been split. Alcaraz won a 6-7(5), 7-5, 7-6(5) thriller at the 2022 Madrid Masters before Djokovic just recently prevailed 6-3, 5-7, 6-1, 6-1 at Roland Garros, aided by the Spaniard’s physical problems.

Alcaraz vs. Djokovic head-to-head

2022 Madrid Masters SF: Alcaraz 6-7(5), 7-5, 7-6(5)

2023 French Open SF: Djokovic 6-3, 5-7, 6-1, 6-1


With presumably fewer grueling rallies on grass and playing on a Grand Slam final stage that has not fazed him in the past (Alcaraz beat Casper Ruud in the 2022 U.S. Open final), the 20-year-old has no reason to melt down either mentally or physically this time around. He certainly didn’t on his way to the championship match. Buoyed by a grass-court title at Queen’s Club, a confident Alcaraz has advanced this fortnight by beating Jeremy Chardy, Alexandre Muller, Nicolas Jarry, Matteo Berrettini, Holger Rune, and Daniil Medvedev. The world No. 1 was especially impressive in the quarters and semis, erasing Rune 7-6(3), 6-4, 6-4 and Medvedev 6-3, 6-3, 6-3.

Of course, nobody has been more dominant than Djokovic at Wimbledon both this fortnight and over the course of the past decade. The 36-year-old has won this tournament four times in a row and is one victory away from a fifth following defeats of Pedro Cachin, Jordan Thompson, Stan Wawrinka, Hubert Hurkacz, Andrey Rublev, and Jannik Sinner. Hurkacz and and Rublev managed to take a set apiece, but Djokovic raised his level in the semis to thump Sinner 6-3, 6-4, 7-6(4).

The No. 2 seed is too good to get blown out–even by an opponent as red hot as Alcaraz. Assuming this turns into a long, pressure-packed affair, you still have to give both the physical and mental edge to Djokovic. I don’t expect Alcaraz to fade like he did in Paris, but Djokovic may end up wearing him down yet again.

Pick: Djokovic in 5

WWW Wimbledon final: Djokovic vs. Alcaraz?

39 Comments on Wimbledon final preview and prediction: Djokovic vs. Alcaraz

  1. Djokovic had break point at 1:0 40:30 in the 5th set and should’ve won that point and then Alcaraz started playing like Alcaraz.

  2. In a five setter you don’t always get great plays all thought out…….they r human after all. Novak is 36 and Alcaraz is in his first GS Wimby final. So there will always be uncharacteristic UFEs. It happens all the time……..I remember especially with Rafa and Roger as well. So that is not always a reason to blame players for losing……..the important thing is to play the important points well and if u don’t then ure chances always diminish. Novak is a veteran and it’s his fault to let the crowd get to him. They never really support him here at Wimby so he should get used to it by now. So they crowd is no excuse for a loss.

    Anyway, I’m happy for Alcaraz……..happy he’s leading the charge for the younguns………it was about damn time!!!! Vamos!!

  3. Novak was a real good sport at the net and post match, so I feel a bit sorry for him now. I’m sure he’ll be back and win a couple more.

  4. Ok just seen Novak commented on the 2 routine bhs he missed at set point which he said changed the match. Alcaraz also says if he had taken the set point it would probably have been over in straights. That’s what I was banging on about yesterday. First, it’s extraordinary for Novak to make such elementary errors. Second, he seemed to obsess about them and lose confidence. These,are signs that at 36 Novak is becoming fallible.
    Also his really terrible day on serve which put him under immense pressure. I can’t ever remember him serving so badly in a slam final. He did serve badly in the second set of the 2020 RG final but that’s on clay after being bagelled by Rafa. Not comparable.

  5. Djokovic was tired and Alcaraz was one step too far. Winning back to back RG Wimbledon at 36 would be quite a feat when it’s rare to win a major at that age.

    I watched the way he walked out on the court and he wasn’t his confidence self. Hurkacz, Rublev, Sinner were all in top form and took a lot out of him. You just cant sustain that level and the wind just made it even more improbable. The fact he made it to the final in the fashion he did and then nearly win it, is a superhuman effort.

    It just goes to show what it takes to stop him from winning.

    • I missed most of the Hurkacz match but McEnroe and Henman were both saying he seemed off physically. Think one of them described him as sluggish. I do think that there have been warning signs all year he is feeling his age. It’s counter to the history of tennis for players where there is a 16 year age difference to keep winning.
      Novak made a big mistake imo by talking himself up and starting to believe his own mythology. You can’t cheat time and the effects of age. Sooner or later you will slip up.

      • I too thought he was sluggish. He was just off of his game…. so uncharacteristic of him. But yes age is playing a part in his game and rightfully so. I thought he got complacent after the first set…..maybe thought he could slack off a little, but bad mistake thinking that. When Carlos raised his level of play, Novak weirded out. Rabbit ears regarding the crowd. Everything and everyone was getting on his nerves and in his head. One time after Rafa had lost a match, in his press interview he said “I beated myself”…. LOL! I’m of the mindset that Novak helped beating himself…. if that makes sense!! Lol

        • It does!!! Good description and I agree! I remember, I think?, after Andy murdered Fed in the Olympics that he said afterwards that as you get older the serve can just go. And Fed in 2012 was much younger than Novak is now. Everyone says as you get older you just have off days which you can’t control. Historically it’s pretty unprecedented for players to be racking up slams after 35( much younger really..) and beating players with such enormous age gaps.
          Novak’s year actually looks strangely similar to Rafa’s at the same age last year. Winning the first 2 slams and then falling at wimby although with Rafa it was because of injury.
          Having said all that it has to be remembered that if he had taken his set point then the match would almost certainly have been over in straights and all the headlines and commentary would be completely different. Just as they will be if he beats Alcaraz in New York.
          Gosh I miss Rafa!!😪

  6. Carlos showed the blueprint on what it takes to beat Novak, this hopefully will inspire the other players, USO will be interesting 😁Agree with Amy miss Rafa though😢

  7. Amy..there is a reason Novak has not done well at nyork. The bounce and the wind there don’t suit him. It’s his worst slam in final conversions ..plus many ppl play well on hc n it’s last slam of year with more wear and tear on body.

    Though I read on Twitter that most Novak fans are saying the loss to alcaraz will give Novak new motivation post rafa exit n he will beat him in nyork n win it. Well they know everything…what do we know…

    Where meddy lands in draw will be key too in nyork and holger rune..

    • The loss to Alcaraz must have dented Novak’s confidence because of the extraordinary errors he made in the tiebreak and the disappearance of his normally excellent serve. Definitely bound up with aging imo.
      Also he hates the breeze/ wind. But being under pressure is very difficult and Alcaraz will be the favourite in New York. He could crack.
      The competition in the ATP is pretty dreadful right now though. Alcaraz is way way ahead of the players close in age and Tsitsi and Zverev are worse than they used to be. Meddy is pretty unconvincing now in slams and has too many weaknesses..
      What impressed me most about Alcaraz was his ros. He returned Matteo and Meddy ‘s big serves with little difficulty. Very impressive. Imagine if Rafa had had his serve!!! Rafa would have had another 3/4 slams. Maybe more.

  8. Novak fans celebrated in wimbmedon that he avoided both med and rune in wimby n they both were in alcaraz qtr n half..well alcaraz beat them all

  9. I never took to alcaraz much last year maybe as rafa was still playing ..however I just love him now ..he’s my tonic for rafa exit and I know who to support bow on. I watched the second n fifth set twice of wimby what shot making ..bh , fh , slice, Cc,dtl ,drops, volleys ,lobs , speed ,power, mental strength ..he has it all in abundance ..just needs to play a bit low percentage to reduce the unforced ..

    • Rafa isn’t retired yet sanju!! I find it a bit sad you are writing him off and consigning him to the past. He is a great champion! I much much prefer him as a person to Carlos.
      Rafa had to play Fed in his prime at wimby with the crowd against him. It was way harder for him. Plus Ferrero is an ex #1 who is a better coach than Toni.
      Carlos isn’t playing in the age of the big3/4. He is 16 years younger than Novak and 17 years younger than Rafa. It’s very dubious saying he would have beaten them on an equivalent footing. You don’t know that!! There are too many intangibles.
      I will never support another player like I support rafa.

      • Not yet retired but he said next year will be his farewell year isn’t it…do we honestly expect him to win slams next year ? Esp when he won’t be ranked and will need help of wild cards to even get in tourneys and can draw top players in round 1. If he wins I’ll be super happy however what are chances of him doing so ? I think miniscule given the circumstances n his position..I genuinely hope he wins a slam or 2 and retires but after Novak passed him, I frankly don’t think it matters now if Novak is anyway ahead.

      • Amy..all these are facts and true..but I think rafa easily goofed up on 5 winnable slams due to maybe not showing right mix of aggression and defense…he had no business losing the 2018 wimby semi n its this loss that gave novak his second lease of life n look how many he won post that..n ofcourse not getting Moya onboard earlier was biggest mistake .Moya should have come in 2014 itself rafa wasted 14 to 16 winning just 1 slam…

        Till today Tony big mouth is giving interviews commenting on everyone n thereby damaging rafa…he needs to shut up..compulsive talker ..

        N frankly don’t u honestly think alcaraz at 20 has way more complete game n more balanced than each of the big 3 had..fed n djoko were anyway late bloomers ..

        • sanju, oh yes I agree that Alcaraz has a more complete game. No one could argue any different. It’s true that the worst time for Rafa was 15 to the beginning of 17. The same time that Novak cleaned up and the head to head turned in Novak ‘s favour. Alcaraz has been working with a psych coach for years already!!. But Rafa, who went through a long period when he could hardly breathe on court, refused to get professional help. His stubbornness has really cost him. Plus he needed Moya earlier in his career.
          Alcaraz didn’t take Novak’s serve away from him sanju!! He just had an off day and is clearly showing the signs of aging. As I keep saying, if he had not made those extraordinary errors on set point he would have won the match in straights! Alcaraz himself said that! The errors also are signs of aging. He missed routine backhands one of which was on a ball from Alcaraz with absolutely nothing on it! Novak himself described them as really poor errors. They were!
          Margot below commented on his slowing down so he couldn’t get to drop shots he would have got to in the past!
          Plus the breeze especially at one end was really affecting his serve. I have never seen him serve so terribly!! It was like watching Rafa. Alcaraz knew exactly where the ball was going because he abandoned the T serve and wouldn’t go near the lines.
          Have already said most of this in conversation with Okiegal who said she thought he helped beat himself. Well he obviously did!
          But the point we are making is it happens as you get older that you have these bad days. It’s not something you can control..
          As for Rafa getting slams when he returns I know it will be incredibly difficult. I am a realist. But if he wins even one at 38 it will be an amazing achievement.

          • Everyone is assuming he would have won in straights.. who can say for sure . Did anybody 2 sets down ,2 3 0 40 down think rafa will come n win ao 22.

            Only truth is Novak didn’t win and lost the match..the calendar slam talk would be insufferable by his fanbase and we are spared of that..

            Do u know many of his fans have logged off Twitter for some weeks..they just are there to gloat when he wins ..they can’t take it when others dish it out to them..they wrote reams calling alcaraz lucky no 1..well they got a good medicine.

      • I never said he would have beaten them on equal footing..I just said he is far more complete at 20 than each of the big 3 at that age plus he’s mature and not rash either..he is super smart ..just see the 5th set..Novak played well in the fifth..alcaraz just didn’t give him room to breathe .see the 5th set stats ..see the winners .he took the racquet out of novaks hands except third set Novak never played badly.ppl talk of just 2 aces ..well alcaraz returned well..reached his serves..its not that novak sprayed dfs and served badly..the 3 points 2 bh misses in tb and the missed smash in 5th which were inexplicable misses ,why are we not thinking it was induced by the sheer stress of alcaraz at the other end …n he’s famous for botched up djokosmash since years wats new abt it

        • I agree with all yor assessment & everythings u said on this thread sanju!..i think Novak not turned up like his usual self last sunday bcoz of his opponent..easy said,he found his match!…At last!

          p/s..of coz wind play a factor too!
          p/s2..never ever belittling yor younger opponent who’s not afraid of u!..they might bit u in the a&&!

  10. I agree with you Sandu. Perhaps I’ve had to acknowledge the influence of the passing years more than most, because of Andy.
    It was clear to me that Novak, fantastic athlete that he is, had slowed down. I mean Carlos catching him with those drop shots would never have happened previously.
    I hope Sinner and Rune can step up to the Alcaraz challenge.

    • Don’t think sanju is saying that Margot! It’s me and Okiegal saying he is showing clear signs of aging..You could see the same with Rafa at the same age last year. He was so much slower and more tired at times even when he was winning..
      I often wonder how you feel about Andy playing on..At wimby 21 with Rafa out I ferociously supported Andy! But boy was it an exhausting experience and so frustrating at times watching him miss balls he would make in his sleep in the past. When he got beaten so easily by Shaps it really was miserable to watch..

      • Apologies Amy! That’s the trouble with scim reading!
        I agree about Andy too. TBH I hate him playing on and I hate seeing him lose to players he would’ve stamped on years ago!
        I’m sure he’ll have a great career away from competition too, coaching, commentating etc but I heard commentators at Wimbledon say that there’s someone new coming onto the coaching team!
        I liked seeing him and Kim in the audience watching Carlos v Novak, Very stress free for once!

        • I feel your pain Margot!! Honestly I don’t know how you can watch sometimes when he plays so far below his real ability. If it were Rafa I would rather he retired..
          I can imagine Andy being a brilliant coach btw…

  11. Amy…I feel novaks year is turning out to be mirror image of rafas last year ..good first 6 months till June and then a subpar second half..rafas second half was abysmal and ridden with injuries…don’t think novaks maybe that bad but his fans are expecting him to win uso coming back super motivated .

    Carlos will be fav at uso and that may affect him..however meddy may decide to play on hc like he did first half of year

    • It feels like this is a big blow to Novak’s confidence sanju! He prides himself on hanging tough at crucial moments and failed to do so…It may also inspire other players to beat him as his aura of invincibility is gone.
      I don’t see him as the fave at USO. He had slipped up there many times before…

  12. Yes rafa needs to win a slam next year and go out on a high..a huge statement win ..he deserves it hope he doesn’t get an exit like federer

    BTW any news abt him…just vacationing n enjoying ?

    • Yes hope so but super difficult!!
      So what has Toni been saying? You mentioned him before..
      He has a habit of talking nonsense and actually seems to know very little about Rafa hence his predictions are always nonsense…

      • Same old..rafa was wronged..surfaces not in his favor..more injured than the other 2..

        All true but how many times will you say the same thing ..plus who is Toni to keep talking about Rafa now .he is Felix coach…focus on him.

        We clearly can see Toni is not a great coach.. he has been able to do nothing with Felix..what he did with Rafa was because Rafa was special…

  13. PS sanju as per your comment above about wimby 2018 I really don’t think you can blame Rafa for losing that. He played a brilliant match. Both players did. But Novak was really helped by the roof. It helped him serve a very large number of aces including on break points. Also Rafa was absolutely drenched with sweat with the humidity.
    The guy who was referee that day revealed recently that Rafa got angry about the roof being closed the next day at Novak’s insistence. Also there was a breeze that day!! Rafa for sure would have won as his topsin fh is way better in the breeze than Novak ‘s. Novak often doesn’t play well in the breeze and wind. They asked for the roof to be closed for the final as I expect you know..
    That’s the slam all Rafa fans get mad about!
    Anyway the referee revealed what we Rafa fans guessed that Rafa,was angry about being made to play with the roof on. It was a very hot day that day! I remember it vividly..

    • I am not aware about roof requested to be closed for this year’s final…who asked it ..is it not an outdoor tourney ..why should roof be closed if no rain .

      I still don’t understand why did they listen to Novak even to close the roof in 2018 next day..the rule was changed from 2019 …rafa was no 1 that time ,novak was no 17. I know rafa would have won it that year with roof open..main reason is the useless isner Anderson match…

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