Rome SF preview and prediction: Medvedev vs. Tsitsipas

One of the most entertaining rivalries in tennis–and perhaps the very best one outside of the Big 3–will add another chapter when Daniil Medvedev and Stefanos Tsitsipas meet again in the Internazionali BNL d’Italia semifinals on Friday.

It all started with their first-ever encounter at the 2018 Miami Open, where Medvedev won an ill-tempered match 2-6, 6-4, 6-2 that was followed by a heated on-court argument. There hasn’t been anything quite that hostile in 10 matches since, but there also haven’t been any pleasantries exchanged. As for the head-to-head series, it now stands at 7-4 in Medvedev’s favor. However, it’s tied up at 1-1 on clay and Tsitsipas won their 2021 French Open quarterfinal showdown 6-3, 7-6(3), 7-5.

Clay may be Medvedev’s worst surface, but he seems to be coming around on it quite nicely this spring. The world No. 3 advanced to the Monte-Carlo quarterfinals and so far in Rome he has knocked off Emil Ruusuvuori, Bernabe Zapata Miralles, Alexander Zverev, and Yannick Hanfmann.

But Tsitsipas has been much better on clay–throughout his career and even this fortnight. The fifth-ranked Greek is a two-time Monte-Carlo champion and a Roland Garros runner-up (2021). He has not dropped a single set at the Rome Masters, beating and Nuno Borges, Lorenzo Sonego, Lorenzo Musetti, and Borna Coric.

This matchup, at least for the time being, pretty much all comes down to the surface. On either a hard court or grass Medvedev would have the edge, and perhaps even a big one. On clay it’s tough to pick against Tsitsipas.

Ricky pick: Tsitsipas in 3