On his worst surface and in slow conditions, Daniil Medvedev had never won a single match at the Internazionali BNL d’Italia prior to this season.
Nothing has changed about the tournament; in fact, if anything conditions in 2023 are even slower than usual given how bad the weather has been throughout this fortnight. It does, however, look like much different clay-court version of Medvedev.
Lifting his game exponentially on dirt, the world No. 3–who also reached the Monte-Carlo quarterfinals earlier this spring–is through to the championship match of the third and final clay-court Masters 1000 event thanks to wins over Emil Ruusuvuori, Bernabe Zapata Miralles, Alexander Zverev, Yannick Hanfmann, and Stefanos Tsitsipas.
Up next for Medvedev on Sunday is Holger Rune, who ended the Russian’s run in Monte-Carlo with a 6-3, 6-4 victory. The 20-year-old Dane has not looked back since finishing runner-up in the principality, with a title in Munich immediately thereafter and now a third appearance in a Masters 1000 final (also won the Paris Indoors last fall). Rune has advance in Rome by beating Arthur Fils, Fabio Fognini, Alexei Popyrin, Novak Djokovic, and Casper Ruud.
Medvedev finished his semifinal much later on Saturday, but thanks to an impressive performance he avoided a third set with Tsitsipas. Rune, on the the other hand, needed two hours and 43 minutes to overcome Ruud 6-7(2), 6-4, 6-2. That could be a factor on Sunday, because you know Medvedev is going to turn this into a grueling battle from the back of the court.
Medvedev is 5-3 lifetime in Masters 1000 finals and all three of his losses have come to opponents ranked in the top two at the time (Djokovic, Carlos Alcaraz, and Rafael Nadal). With the No. 2 seed at Roland Garros at stake, the 27-year-old will be extremely motivated to secure a sixth Masters title.
Pick: Medvedev in 3
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