Expert picks are back one more time before the French Open, as a three-team panel makes its predictions for Sunday’s final of the Internazionali BNL d’Italia. It wasn’t easy to get there for either man, but it’s Novak Djokovic vs. Rafael Nadal.
Ricky: Since losing to Novak Djokovic in the quarterfinals of this same Rome event in 2016, Rafael Nadal has restored order to the their head-to-head series on clay. Nadal is 4-0 in their last four clay-court contests, while Djokovic is 10-0 in their last 10 matches on all other surfaces. The Spaniard is 9-1 in their last 10 clay-court sets and even though he dropped one in the 2019 Rome final, the other two sets were 6-0 and 6-1 in his favor. As if that isn’t a big enough check mark in Nadal’s favor already, he is also more rested. the nine-time Rome champion is coming off straight-set victories over Alexander Zverev and Reilly Opelka. Whereas Nadal played only two sets on Saturday, Djokovic battled through five total sets across grueling victories over Stefanos Tsitsipas (rain delayed from Friday) and Lorenzo Sonego. As fit as the Serb is, that is going to be a factor–perhaps both physically and mentally. All signs point to Nadal taking care of business without too much trouble, thus picking up much-needed momentum in advance of Roland Garros. Nadal in 2: 6-4, 6-3.
Cheryl: The most prolific rivalry in the history of men’s tennis is about to add a 57th installment. It’s an extraordinary athletic relationship–not just due to its frequency and longevity, but also because they have been involved in some of the greatest tennis matches of all time. Unfortunately, a Nadal-Djokovic “epic match” hasn’t happened in a good long while…since the 2018 Wimbledon semis to be precise, which Djokovic edged in a 10-8 fifth-set thriller. Since then, they’ve adhered to a script that goes like this: Djokovic wins handily on hard courts and Nadal wins handily on clay, as though by tacit agreement that it should be so. While it’s true that Djokovic spent more than hours on Saturday contesting both his quarterfinal and semifinal matches, he’s one of the fittest players who has ever stepped on a court. If Nadal wins, it won’t be because Djokovic is out of gas; it’ll be because the court is made of crushed brick. Nadal in 3: 6-3, 4-6, 6-2.
Pete (Tennis Acumen): With the exception of the sluggish opening set and a half against Shapovalov in the third round, Nadal has to be pleased with his efforts in Rome–where he will now look to add the “La Decima” demarcation to yet another prestigious event. Surprisingly, though, opponents have won at least four games in nine sets played against Nadal–the only exception coming when Zverev managed three in the opening set of their quarterfinal contest, Concurrently, Djokovic has also been tested extensively by Tsitsipas, Fritz, and Sonego, but he managed to arrive in the final as many expected. Thus we finally have an all-Big 3 Masters 1000 Final for the first time in exactly two years, when Djokovic and Nadal met in the 2019 Rome Final. However, we arrived at this point as the result of both champions fighting their way through challenging patches of matches–their resilience on full display again and again and again. Nadal will be the fresher of the two, as 10 of the 20 games in his semifinal were won at love. Djokovic went the distance in the second semi and that will likely be the determining factor in a match with slim margins. Nadal in 3: 3-6, 6-4, 6-4.
who ya got?