Rome final preview and prediction: Djokovic vs. Nadal

Both men took the circuitous route to get there, but Sunday’s final of the Internazionali BNL d’Italia will feature the top two seeds: Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal.

It will be the 57th installment of one of the great rivalries in tennis history, with Djokovic currently leading the head-to-head series 29-27. Such a close margin hardly means anything, but there is a statistic that is especially telling as the Rome title match looms. Nadal is 4-0 in their last four clay-court encounters, while Djokovic 10-0 in their last 10 meetings on all other surfaces.

For Nadal, that isn’t exactly unique to his matchup with Djokovic. After all, the King of Clay generally dominates all opponents on his favorite surface while sometimes struggling–relatively speaking, at least–elsewhere. Although he has not been his dominant self on clay this spring, Nadal managed to triumph in Barcelona and he is picking up even more momentum in Rome as he prepares for an upcoming bid for a 14th French Open title. So far this week the world No. 3 has knocked off Jannik Sinner, Denis Shapovalov, Alexander Zverev, and Reilly Opelka. Nadal needed to save two match points against Shapovalov, but with new life he raised his level to erase both Zverev and Opelka in straight sets.

“I [have done] a lot of things well [and played with a] good spirit during all the week,” the 34-year-old assessed. “[There are] a lot of positive things I [have done] on court this week and it is important for my confidence to be back in such an important final like this one.”

Djokovic has gone in the other direction in Rome. The top-seeded Serb opened with straight-set wins over Taylor Fritz and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, but Saturday was a grueling day. Djokovic outlasted Stefanos Tsitsipas 4-6, 7-5, 7-5 in a rain-delayed quarterfinal and then withstood a spirited charge by Lorenzo Sonego to prevail 6-3, 6-7(5), 6-2 in the semis.

The world No. 1 spent more than five hours on the court in one day alone and now has to face Nadal without any rest. Nadal, on the other hand, finished off Zverev before the rain came on Friday and he required only one hour and 32 minutes in the semis against Opelka.

“I don’t have much time [to recover]; I played a lot of tennis,” Djokovic admitted. “Hopefully I’ll have fresh legs, because that’s what I definitely will need. It’s necessary in order to have a chance against Rafa. He (has) also had some tough matches…. Hopefully tomorrow I’ll be fresh and I’ll give it all.”

Even though Djokovic is one of the fittest and all-around toughest players in tennis history, both the physical and mental toll of Saturday’s effort cannot be overstated. Plus, on clay Nadal would be a considerable favorite even if you don’t take what happened in the quarterfinals and semis into account.

This Masters 1000 tournament means more to Nadal, too, so you have to like his chances to get the job done.

Pick: Nadal in 2

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11 Comments on Rome final preview and prediction: Djokovic vs. Nadal

  1. Novak is saying he felt no fatigue n could have played few more hours

    Says he is going to play in belgrade again ..wasn’t that over already where he lost to karatsev

    N he is playing just the week before french..strange ?

    When is french btw? 30th May ?

    • Yes, RG starts 2 weeks after Rome this year, and Sunday start as usual, I guess.

      Belgrade is in Serbia so I guess Djoker feels he “has” to play it, and, yes, there was a clay tournament in Belgrade the week after MC and Djoko played there, but lost to Karatsev in the quarters. He lost early at MC, did not play Madrid or Barce, so I guess he feels he needs more clay practice, plus I’m sure Djoker likes playing in his home country. There’s still a week after Belgrade before RG starts so no reason why not.

      • RG starts right after Belgrade, there is no week in between. Strange Djoker is playing that, I expect a late withdrawal from Djoker

        • Yes it’s the week preceding RG. Maybe he is obliged as it’s his home tourney. Btw did they not just play there few weeks back ?

          Novak in his presser said that he is getting good sensations for Paris after Rome and hopes to go all the way. That statement scared me (:-

          • Honestly, what else would you expect him to say? That’s not scary. It’s just what he has to do. A loss at Rome is not the end of the world for him. He knows what he has to work on now.

            Novak has been through this too many times to freak out over a loss to Rafa on clay. He knows the match was competitive. Now it’s on to RG. He will take the good things out of this.

          • Yes, agree here. And Rafa will also take a lot of confidence from his win. He was not at his best and still he came thru this draw and beat his biggest rival. In a way it was a brutal week form him, so extra one week will do a world of good for him.

            I still think on a sunny day at RG where the ball bounces a lot more than Rome, Rafa’s forehand and BH go up a notch. FH just zips and Rafa can be comfortable that BH can also make use of extra bounce.

          • Yeah.. also some of the drop shots that he could not get to or could not do much with were sinking into the court which should not be the case in sunnier conditions.

            But Rafa should continue to put opponents away quickly in the earlier rounds.. With increasing age, that becomes even more crucial..

  2. Active players with the most ATP titles on clay:

    Nadal = 62

    Djokovic+Federer+Robredo+Thiem+Fognini+Wawrinka = 62

  3. Congratulations to Rafa for winning his 10th Rome Masters trophy!!!!!!!!!!

    πŸ†πŸ†πŸ†πŸ†πŸ†πŸ†πŸ†πŸ†πŸ†πŸ†

    Vaaaaaaaaaamoooooooooos Rafa!!!!!!!!!!

    πŸ’ͺ πŸ’ͺ πŸ’ͺ πŸ’ͺ πŸ’ͺ πŸ’ͺ πŸ’ͺ πŸ’ͺ πŸ’ͺ πŸ’ͺ

    πŸ‘πŸ‘πŸ‘πŸ‘πŸ‘πŸ‘πŸ‘πŸ‘πŸ‘πŸ‘

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