Nitto ATP Finals round-robin preview and prediction: Djokovic vs. Zverev

The last spot in the semis of the Nitto ATP Finals will come down to Novak Djokovic vs. Alexander Zverev on Friday night.

Both players are 1-1 through two matches in London, while Daniil Medvedev has clinched the Group A victory at 2-0 and Diego Schwartzman (0-2) has been mathematically eliminated. Djokovic opened with a 6-3, 6-2 rout of Schwartzman but then got crushed by Medvedev 6-3, 6-3. Zverev bounced back from a 6-3, 6-4 loss to the Russian by beating the Argentine 6-3, 4-6, 6-3.

The seventh-ranked German has been literally unbeatable for anyone except Medvedev during this indoor hard-court swing. He is 0-2 against the world No. 4 since the French Open and 13-0 against everyone else. This stretch includes back-to-back titles in Cologne and a runner-up performance at the Paris Masters.

Djokovic’s performance against Medvedev continued a worrisome trend, although by his own admission he probably isn’t too concerned about it. With the year-end No. 1 ranking already locked up, the 33-year-old simply went through the motions in Vienna and got blown out by Lorenzo Sonego 6-2, 6-1–admitting afterwards that his motivation level was far less than 100 percent. Djokovic also skipped the Paris Masters.

Zverev should take additional confidence from his history in this head-to-head series. It stands at a competitive 3-2 in Djokovic’s favor, including 1-1 inside the O2 Arena. Both of those showdowns came in 2018, when the Serb prevailed 6-4, 6-1 in round-robin competition only to see Zverev respond with a 6-4, 6-3 triumph in the final.

This should be another great opportunity for the in-form 23-year-old. If he serves well, Zverev will have every chance to upset an opponent who appears to be ready for the offseason. Granted that’s a big “if” given Zverev’s occasional service woes, but the fact that he double-faulted just three times in three sets against Schwartzman is encouraging.

Pick: Zverev in 3

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