Nitto ATP Finals round-robin preview and prediction: Medvedev vs. Schwartzman

It will be a proverbial dead rubber at the Nitto ATP Finals when Daniil Medvedev and Diego Schwartzman square off in their final Group A round-robin match on Friday afternoon. Ranking points and prize money may be at stake, but Medvedev has already clinched victory in the group and Schwartzman has been eliminated.

The Russian is a completely different London participant from the one that was on display that fall. Twelve months ago he was running on fumes at the end of a long and incredibly successful season; this time around he is well-rested due to both less winning and more time off because of the coronavirus pandemic. Armed with a full tank of energy, Medvedev captured the Paris Masters title two weeks ago and so far inside the O2 Arena has erased Alexander Zverev and Novak Djokovic.

Schwartzman is making his year-end championship debut, and it won’t last long. The world No. 9 lost to Djokovic 6-3, 6-2 and then saw his semifinal hopes end with a 6-3, 4-6, 6-3 defeat at Zverev’s hands.

In the Group B dead rubber on Thursday, Dominic Thiem had already qualified and he went down in easy straight sets to Andrey Rublev. But there was little doubt that would happen, as the Austrian did the exact same thing last year against Matteo Berrettini and conserved energy to eventually come within two points of winning the tournament.

Medvedev will probably be more inspired to go undefeated. Plus he and Schwartzman do not like each one bit, so this should have a much different feel than Thiem vs. Rublev. They at least say their relationship is no longer an all-out feud, which had been the case for much of this season following a contentious ATP Cup clash.

“I started to tell him that he was a fool to the face,” Schwartzman recalled. “I insulted him and he looked at me justifying himself with what happened. In football, it is as if they score a goal and celebrate you in the face and [at] your fans.

“I think he did a mistake at that time in the ATP Cup, and maybe he understands that We have just a relationship between two guys who are playing the tour. We say hello and we practice for a few times after the ATP Cup in Roland Garros and in a few different places. No more than that.”

“If he has problems with me, I understand it,” Medvedev said earlier this month at the Paris Masters. “I will not fight against it. But I think the relationship is going better and better–but it’s better to ask Diego, because I have no problems with him.”

Whatever the case, if the world No. 4 gives anything close to his best on an indoor hard court this almost certainly won’t be competitive. After all, Medvedev just destroyed the Argentine 6-3, 6-1 in Paris to improve to 5-0 lifetime in the head-to-head series.

Pick: Medvedev in 2

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