Carlos Alcaraz and Alex de Minaur will kick off the 2025 Nitto ATP Finals when they collide during round-robin competition in Group Jimmy Connors on Sunday afternoon in Turin.
Alcaraz is sweeping the head-to-head series 4-0, but De Minaur has twice forced a final set–including in their only previous indoor hard-court showdown (Alcaraz triumphed 6-4, 3-6, 6-2 in the Rotterdam championship match earlier this season). De Minaur even had a match point in their 2022 Barcelona showdown only to see the Spaniard save it in dramatic fashion and eventually prevail 6-7(4), 7-6(4), 6-4.
The seventh-ranked Australian has to be thrilled that he is in Alcaraz’s group rather than Jannik Sinner’s (he is 0-11 lifetime against the Italian), and the underdog certainly has a chance in this matchup. De Minaur is wrapping up a stellar season in which he captured an ATP 500 title in Washington, D.C. and reached the quarterfinals at each of the two hard-court majors. The 26-year-old has advanced to at least the quarterfinals at all four of his events during the 2025 fall swing.
As usual, Alcaraz’s results have been a mixed bag since the U.S. Open. The world No. 2 went 1-1 at the Laver Cup, captured the Tokyo title, and then lost right away at the Paris Masters to Cameron Norrie.
Neither player has an encouraging history in Turin. Alcaraz has made only two appearances, compiling an overall match record of 3-4. It’s also worth noting that he is 0-2 in opening matches, including an unceremonious 6-1, 7-5 setback against Casper Ruud 12 months ago. De Minaur went 0-3 in his debut last fall.
This is more of a toss-up than the rankings and head-to-head record would suggest. The year-end championship might begin with a result that would be treated as a massive upset but really wouldn’t be much of a surprise.
Pick: De Minaur in 3
WWW?
Glad to see that both AA and Musetti get to play in Turin…..Carlos in 2 over Demon.
Carlos wins all his group matches, he is World No. 1 REGARDLESS of what Sinner does. He won’t mess around during this match or the next two and will lose in the semis. Carlito in 2
Carlos not in form, quicker courts ADM in 3
Alcaraz in 2