The 2025 ATP season is finally coming to end, but not before one last event that is as prestigious as it gets outside of the four majors. It’s the Nitto ATP Finals, an eight-man showdown that will be played in Turin, Italy for the fifth time.
It will also decide the year-end world No. 1 ranking. Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner split the four Grand Slams at two titles apiece, so it’s only fitting that their battle for the top spot goes right down to the wire. Alcaraz has held the upper hand pretty much all season long on the heels of his rival’s three-month suspension, but Sinner kept himself in contention with a recent title at the Paris Masters. If the Italian lifts the Turin trophy, he could finish No. 1 if Alcaraz wins no more than two matches this week. As such, the stakes at the Nitto ATP Finals are sky high–also because of the ranking points and prize money involved.
It’s time break down the upcoming festivities as eight of the best players in the world come together for the year’s grand finale.
Nitto ATP Finals
Where: Turin, Italy
Surface: Indoor hard
Points: 200 for RR win, 400 for SF win, 500 for final win
Top seed: Jannik Sinner
Defending champion: Jannik Sinner
Prize money:
| Alternate | $155,000 |
| Participation Fee | $331,000* |
| Round-robin match win | $396,500 |
| Semifinal match win | $1,183,500 |
| Final win | $2,367,000 |
| Undefeated champion | $5,071,000 |
*singles participation fees
1 match: $165,500
2 matches: $248,250
3 matches: $331,000
Group Jimmy Connors
Carlos Alcaraz
Taylor Fritz
Alex de Minaur
Lorenzo Musetti
Group Bjorn Borg
Jannik Sinner
Alexander Zverev
Ben Shelton
Felix Auger-Aliassime
Novak Djokovic’s late withdrawal means Musetti is in as the first alternate. It also means the groups are a bit skewed. In his entire group, Alcaraz is the only player in the top five of the 2025 race. That’s not to say that Musetti, Fritz, and De Minaur don’t have a chance, but it is without question a great setup for the second-ranked Spaniard.
The other quartet is stacked. Sinner is the defending champion in Turin, Zverev is a two-time winner of this tournament, and Auger-Aliassime is on fire indoors. The Canadian’s late-season hot streak carried him past Musetti in the race and made him the final automatic qualifier. Shelton is the underdog in this group given his mediocre current form following a U.S. Open shoulder injury, but the big-serving American is always dangerous with his serve.
Picks
Group Jimmy Connors
De Minaur over Alcaraz in 3
Fritz over Musetti in 2
Fritz over De Minaur in 3
Alcaraz over Musetti in 2
Alcaraz over Fritz in 3
De Minaur over Musetti in 3
Group Bjorn Borg
Zverev over Shelton in 2
Sinner over Auger-Aliassime in 2
Sinner over Zverev in 2
Auger-Aliassime over Shelton in 3
Auger-Aliassime over Zverev in 3
Sinner over Shelton in 2
Semifinals: Auger-Aliassime (Borg runner-up) over Alcaraz (Connors winner) and Sinner (Borg winner) over Fritz (Connors runner-up)
Final: Sinner over Auger-Aliassime
WWW?
The draw should be formatted and not drawn out of a hat. As it is it becomes unfair if one of the top two seeds becomes stacked as is the case with Sinner
Carlos has a great draw….and he’ll win it all
Group Jimmy Connors
Alcaraz over De Minaur in 2
Fritz over Musetti in 3
Fritz over De Minaur in 3
Alcaraz over Musetti in 2
Fritz over Alcaraz in 3
Musetti over De Minaur in 3
Group Bjorn Borg
Zverev over Shelton in 3
Sinner over Auger-Aliassime in 2
Sinner over Zverev in 2
Auger-Aliassime over Shelton in 2
Auger-Aliassime over Zverev in 3
Sinner over Shelton in 2
Semifinals: Auger-Aliassime over Fritz in 3 and Sinner over Alcaraz in 3
Final: Sinner over Auger-Aliassime in 2