Monte-Carlo final preview and pick: Wawrinka vs. Federer

Fed presser 1It will be an all-Swiss final on Sunday in Monte-Carlo, with Stanislas Wawrinka going up against Roger Federer. Both men are looking for their first title at the event.

Stanislas Wawrinka and Roger Federer will be squaring off for the 15th time in their careers when they battle for the Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters title on Sunday afternoon.

Federer is dominating the head-to-head series 13-1, with a 3-1 mark on clay. Interestingly, however, Wawrinka’s lone victory over his fellow Swiss came at this same Monte-Carlo event (via a 6-4, 7-5 decision in the 2009 third round). They have faced each other only once since 2012 and on no occasions since last year’s Indian Wells Masters, where Federer prevailed in three sets.

The 2014 campaign has been kind to both men, with Wawrinka posting the most impressive results of his career and Federer enjoying a resurgence following a disappointing 2012. Wawrinka is 19-3 for the season with his first Grand Slam triumph at the Australian Open in addition to a winner’s trophy in Chennai. Federer’s 28-4 mark includes a title in Dubai and a runner-up showing in Indian Wells.

Wawrinka did not drop a set en route to the Monte-Carlo final, taking out Marin Cilic, Milos Raonic, and David Ferrer–who had upset Rafael Nadal in Friday’s quarterfinals. The world No. 3 also got a walkover past Nicolas Almagro in the third round. Federer survived one stumbling block against Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, whom the No. 4 seed defeated 2-6, 7-6(6), 6-1 after being two points from defeat in the second set. That came in between straight-set scalps of Radek Stepanek, Lukas Rosol, and defending champion Novak Djokovic–who was struggling with a wrist injury.

This may not be a rout because Wawrinka is in great form, is well-rested, and clay gives him his best chance against Federer. Given his past futility, however, Wawrinka has to have a mental block against his favored countryman and that should help Federer regain the status of being Switzerland’s No. 1 player. That, too, is on the line in this one.

Pick: Federer in 3

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63 Comments on Monte-Carlo final preview and pick: Wawrinka vs. Federer

  1. ed251137 says: April 21, 2014 at 1:40 pm

    Agree. Big 4 is still THE game in town. So many have flattered to deceive……………

  2. Deucy: I gave my two pennies-worth on this subject just a few minutes ago higher up
    (about 20 comments back).

    Out of sight, out of mind. Andy is simply not on the radar ATM for most people other than Andy aficionados.

  3. No dice, am just too damn stupid……..

    Do I have to register on WordPress for this? I tried to register an avatar on wordpress and had all sorts of drama and now am literally terrified of messing around with wordpress……….

  4. hawkeye63 says: April 21, 2014 at 11:58 am

    Stats don’t lie, yes Wawa has a much worse record against Rafa than Fed and he only beat an injured Rafa for his sole win. However, I think Wawa has improved his game (especially his weaker side, the FH) and his mentality, whereas I have not seen any improvement on Fed’s game right now, in fact, I think he has regressed because his stamina has deteriorated. It is on the basis of this that I think Wawa would be more likely to give Rafa a harder time, not beat him, compared to Fed.

    • Sure, far from obvious but I’ll take Stan.(I mean, not even a single SET?).

      Again, in Rafa’s current state since the AO final, either of those two can beat him (plus a few more).

  5. Federer was defending and grinding way too much against Stan.

    The aggressive player won.

    As Fed himself once said, “He’s going to have to grind very hard for the next few years if he keeps playing this way.”

    :'(

    #Karma

  6. Translated Age Says: Your comment is awaiting moderation.

    Stan is following in Fedโ€™s footsteps.
    i.e., he does well when Rafaโ€™s not.
    April 21st, 2014 at 3:37 pm

    Translated Age Says: Your comment is awaiting moderation.

    Orange is the new Blackโ€ฆ
    โ€ฆ and Stan is the new Fed.
    1-12 is the new 10-23

    ๐Ÿ™„

    #IfaTreeFallsInTheForest

    • Here is the blog I referred to above:

      Andy Murray outclasses Roger Federer during and after their match
      2008-03-05 10:06:00
      I had planned on doing this week’s blog on Andy Murray anyway โ€“ even before his big win over Roger Federer in Dubai on Monday. Frankly, he fascinates me both on and off the court. He shuffles along with shoulders slumped, as though lifting his feet is simply too much effort. Watching him, one could almost be convinced that Eeyore himself decided to take up tennis. Yet, he can run down a drop shot like a gazelle and cover the court as well as anyone. Then as soon as the point is won, he’s back to slumping and shuffling again.

      Sure, he’s gotten some flack for his on-court grumpiness. And he has the occasional heated argument with the palm of his hand, wherein said appendage appears to have committed an unforgivable offense and needs a stern dressing down right in the middle of a match. Yes, he got into some trouble with the English for stating that his pick for the 2006 World Cup was “anyone but England”. But really, it’s just all part of the charm that is Andy Murray.

      His results leading up to Dubai have been…well…strange. He won Doha to start the year off, then lost in the first round at the Australian Open, won again in Marseille and lost in the first round of Rotterdam. I feel pretty safe in saying that nobody quite knew what to expect when Murray drew, of all people, Roger Federer in the first round. As evidenced in the match, he need not have worried.

      Murray played a brilliant tactical match against Federer particularly in the second and third sets, but perhaps most impressive of all was the fact that he kept his cool after losing the first set tie break on a couple of careless errors. For the rest of the match, he picked his spots beautifully. He was just patient enough to allow Federer to get himself into trouble, but not lackadaisical enough to permit the Swiss back into the match.

      The biggest surprise wasn’t that Murray beat Federer. As I said in my blog last week, Federer has played one other tournament this year and has barely practiced โ€“ he was bound to be rusty and drawing Murray in the first round is brutal no matter who you are. The thing that had my mouth dropping open was what Federer said after the match. He alluded to his lack of match play, and gave the obligatory “he was too good today”. And then proceeded to offer a critique on Murray’s game. He accused the Scot of having a stagnant game “I don’t think he’s changed his game a whole lot since I played him in the Bangkok final. Not that I’m disappointed but I really would have thought he would have changed it in some ways.” He also concluded that Murray is too defensive and suggested that early burnout is inevitable.

      Federer doesn’t like to lose โ€“ I understand this and even respect it as the mark of a great winner. But Murray quite simply outclassed him in his own interview. When told what Federer said about him and his game, he calmly stated that his playing style remains what it is against Federer because he feels that is the best way to beat the world number one. He pointed out that he plays differently against Nadal because aggression is more effective in that case. Murray sounded intelligent and poised. And though I’m sure I’ll get flamed for saying it, Federer sounded petty.

  7. Just read an interesting theory in the blogosphere: Novak does not want to go to Madrid because of the way the Madrid crowd treated him last year so this injury would provide the perfect excuse to miss Madrid.

    We (royal “we”) wait and see………………

    • I’ve thought from the outset there was more to this ‘injury’ than meets the eye but I cant believe he is funking Madrid.

      • I really enjoyed reading that blog from Cheryl Murray. It reminded me of just how good she was as a writer. I think that I remember this one. I tried to make it must reading when it came to her blogs.

        It got me thinking about how Murray had some great wins against Fed when he was making a name for himself. She also correctly called out Fed for his pettiness. We would see it become a pattern with me when he lost.

    • Ricky Dimon@April 22, 2014 at 12:07 am

      I didn’t know that the Masters 1000 are now Mickey Mouse tournaments according to the people riding a bandwagon of Djoko!

  8. I believe what Tignor’s writing these days. What Rafa said is concerning. When you lose the one quality that separates you from everyone else, that has helped you win matches when you should not, it’s no small thing. To hear Rafa say out loud what I have been wondering, didn’t make me feel good. I would have hoped that he put the AO loss behind him. But I can understand why he is struggling with it. Rafa can live with losses when he has gone out and played his best and his opponent just plays better. He has said it himself many times. But to not be able to play his best, to be hampered by an unexpected injury, can really take a toll. It’s the second time this has happened to him at the AO. The last time being in 2011 when he had that hamstring injury in the quarterfinals against Ferrer. He was going for the Rafa slam. It can’t be easy to always be thwarted by injuries.

    I do think it’s way too early to tap Stan as the next member of the big four. He’s got a ways to go before he is in that company.. I also don’t know that he going to continue winning in the clay season. Tignor did acknowledge that Rafa will get it all sorted out. I just hope it’s sooner, rather than later. He has to get it together in Barcelona.

    Regarding Fed, I think we saw why he can’t capitalize when Rafa is out of the picture. He just can’t hang in there and play well enough even over three sets.

    • In fact it is the third time NNY. The first was in 2010 against Andy (also in QF) when he was forced to retire because of his knee/knees. That was the reason why he refused to give up when he got injured in 2011 in spite of U.Toni efforts to persuade him to do so โ€“ there was no way he could accept retiring in a Slam two years in a row. As you say, that loss cost him the chance of achieving the Calendar Slam and probably contributed to the mental slump which saw him routed by a rampaging Djokovic. With hindsight we can see certain losses have left mental scar tissue which affects his performance in subsequent tournaments.

      • @ed,

        Yes, you are correct. Thanks for bringing up that other injury. I well remember him arguing with Uncle Toni in the 2011 quarterfinal match. Someone who knows Spanish on vb was able to translate what Rafa said when Uncle Toni was telling him to retire. I remember posting it on TT. You are absolutely right that retiring in the 2010 match was the reason he would not do it again.

        I have been wondering recently if that loss in the 2011 AO was the reason why he seemed to be out of it mentally for the rest of the year. Now I do think that this was the reason that he started to lose to Novak. I remember how we were all trying to figure it out on TT. But the answer might have been staring us in the face all along.

        I think you have summed it up quite well. We really don’t know what is going on with Rafa, how deeply he was affected by those losses. I thought it was burnout in 2011, a la Borg. But seeing him after the loss in the AO final, I started rethinking that.

        Thanks again for your thoughts. ๐Ÿ™‚

  9. Another neat bit of symmetry:
    Sunday was the 2nd time Stan has been the beneficiary of Djokovic health problems.
    He won his first ATP title (UMAG 2006) when Djokovic retired (breathing difficulties) during the first set of the final. And his first Master’s title came 8 years later when the defending champion (sore wrist) was taken out of his path by Federer.

    • No question, Stanley has been a very lucky boy, that does not demean his trophies, he won them fair and square, not blaming Stan at all. What I do not understand is pundits conveniently forgetting the importance of his lucky breaks to his victories and choosing to just focus on the victories make him one of the favourites for RG 2014 and YE#1!

      Let Stan beat either of the Big 4 in their pomp, let Stan win matches when he is playing badly, let Stan consistently make the final weekend of tournaments he enters, let Stan play a full schedule week in week out like the Big 4, then we can talk…………….

  10. Interesting facts about how injuries contributed to Stan’s wins.

    One other thing that I haven’t talked about regarding the AO final is after the trophy ceremony. The cameras don’t usually follow the players into the corridor. However, this time they did follow Rafa and once he was off the court, he put his face in his hands and started crying uncontrollably. That just tore at my heart. I wanted to just wrap my arms around him in that moment. It’s an image that I can’t get out of my mind.

  11. ^ nny7: It was indeed, a heartbreaking image. I won’t forget how gracious and forgiving Rafa was to the crowd that had booed him. They were, of course, spurred on by Stan’s actions. I’d already begun to dislike Stan after his actions and comments at the WTF, but Australia sealed the deal for me. It’s unlikely that I’ll be feeling anything positive toward Stan in the near future.

    • jpacnw,

      So you saw it too! It was awful. I don’t know how Rafa does it. He is such a decent person. I never really had any feelings one way or the other about Stan in the past. I just thought he was a the guy who would always be in Fed’s shadow. However, I agree with you about his behavior at the AO final. That was truly disgraceful. I don’t like him at all because of that. Truly poor sportsmanship.

      However, I did get a kick out of him beating Fed. I thought Fed would get it done in three sets, but he let that one get away from him. He just seemed to go away in that third set. But that doesn’t mean that I want Stan winning anything else!

      Someone heard talked about Stan turning into a prima donna with his recent wins. That would be most unfortunate. if it all goes to his head, then at some point he will be in for a mighty fall.

  12. Deucy: you said above re. Andy ‘Once a back patient, always a back patient’.

    Take heart, Fed built a pretty impressive career in spite of a back problem which got him let off doing his national service; Rafa has dealt with a laundry list of physical problems but look what he has achieved; Agassi suffered a chronic back for for most of his career but still won his last Slam at the age of 33.

    As long as his team manage his schedule and physical training properly Andy will remain part of the quartet for the foreseeable future.

  13. First, I just wanted to say sorry for the emoticons. I clicked on that link for them on the wordpress site and then decided to have a little fun!

    deucy,

    I agree with ed. I think the surgery will help Andy in the long run. It’s never easy to come back from any kind of surgery, but I was encouraged by how he played in Miami. He’s getting there. He may have little niggles that will bother him. But it doesn’t mean that he can’t still have a long and fulfilling career.

    I would not say it if I didn’t really believe it. Here, I will use one of those emoticons. ๐Ÿ˜‰

  14. jpacnw says:
    April 22, 2014 at 1:50 am

    the same with me…I will never be able to forgive Stan his terrible behavior against injured Rafa…he made a fool of himself and in a sense showed his real face…even some friends of mine who were fans of Novak and were routing for Stan changed their minds at that time…Stan was a simple idiot and there is nothing he could do in the future to win me over..I would simply route against him even if he played Soderling to that matter…(speaking of him, poor Sod, is he ever gonna get back on tour?!)

    Vamos Rafa!

    • ^^^^^^ that’s a pretty strong statement jpa. But I understand where you are coming from. For many years I felt sympathetic towards Stan, particularly when Roger made so many disparaging remarks about him, but I never felt he stood a chance in hell of hitting the big time. Like many other people I was disappointed in him when he walked away from his wife and baby daughter ‘to concentrate on his career’ and thought to myself ‘a fat lot of good it did him’. When his petulance began to rise to the surface I lost patience with him: the AO behaviour was the final nail in his coffin as far as I was concerned.

      I found it fascinating how during the DC and again at MC the commies kept referring to his friendship with Federer and suggesting they were really good mates which we know is far from the truth. At best they tolerate each other: it would surely have stuck in Fed’s gullet to keep smiling while he trotted out the platitudes on Sunday.

      • Thanks ed251137, for reminding me why I keep Stan on my sh*t list notwithstanding his appalling behavior towards Rafa at AO 2014. That incident of leaving his wife and baby daughter for his career still leaves me cold. Everyone knows the special bond between girls and their fathers. I cannot see how Stan can hide that episode from her when she grows up.

        He is truly a selfish, selfish boar…………..

      • ed,

        Then Stan and Fed are not such good friends? The commentators on the tennis channel were going on and on about it during the final. Ad nauseum, I might say! So the real scoop is that they just tolerate each other? I wonder where these commentators get this stuff.

      • No doubt Federer will overlook Stan’s very public attack on him for shirking DC duties in the event they pull off a Davis Cup triumph this year โ€“ particularly as he also has Stan to thank for denying Rafa a 14th Slam title.

        #BFFN

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