Monte-Carlo final preview and pick: Wawrinka vs. Federer

Fed presser 1It will be an all-Swiss final on Sunday in Monte-Carlo, with Stanislas Wawrinka going up against Roger Federer. Both men are looking for their first title at the event.

Stanislas Wawrinka and Roger Federer will be squaring off for the 15th time in their careers when they battle for the Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters title on Sunday afternoon.

Federer is dominating the head-to-head series 13-1, with a 3-1 mark on clay. Interestingly, however, Wawrinka’s lone victory over his fellow Swiss came at this same Monte-Carlo event (via a 6-4, 7-5 decision in the 2009 third round). They have faced each other only once since 2012 and on no occasions since last year’s Indian Wells Masters, where Federer prevailed in three sets.

The 2014 campaign has been kind to both men, with Wawrinka posting the most impressive results of his career and Federer enjoying a resurgence following a disappointing 2012. Wawrinka is 19-3 for the season with his first Grand Slam triumph at the Australian Open in addition to a winner’s trophy in Chennai. Federer’s 28-4 mark includes a title in Dubai and a runner-up showing in Indian Wells.

Wawrinka did not drop a set en route to the Monte-Carlo final, taking out Marin Cilic, Milos Raonic, and David Ferrer–who had upset Rafael Nadal in Friday’s quarterfinals. The world No. 3 also got a walkover past Nicolas Almagro in the third round. Federer survived one stumbling block against Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, whom the No. 4 seed defeated 2-6, 7-6(6), 6-1 after being two points from defeat in the second set. That came in between straight-set scalps of Radek Stepanek, Lukas Rosol, and defending champion Novak Djokovic–who was struggling with a wrist injury.

This may not be a rout because Wawrinka is in great form, is well-rested, and clay gives him his best chance against Federer. Given his past futility, however, Wawrinka has to have a mental block against his favored countryman and that should help Federer regain the status of being Switzerland’s No. 1 player. That, too, is on the line in this one.

Pick: Federer in 3

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76 Comments on Monte-Carlo final preview and pick: Wawrinka vs. Federer

  1. Stan now moves comfortably clear in the Race to London. Now, it will be interesting to see his decision making. Does he go to Portugal to defend his championship there, a 250 tournament? Does he have the stamina to play week in week out and reach the business end of tournaments he enters? What are his priorities?

    These are questions I want answered before I pencil him in as a contender rather than a dark horse in Slams and Masters tournaments.

    If Stan sits out next week (which is possible since he played a full MC, something he has never done recently) and Rafa gets his head back on track and wins in Barca, he will be only 260 points behind Stan in the Race.

    As for Roger, how the hell is he going to win a Slam if he cannot go beyond 2 sets in a match?

    We live in interesting times…………

  2. From Roger’s presser:

    “A big congratulations to Stanford, My fellow countryman and former member of staff. It was the tough match if I may make the honestations. I never quite felt the same after I fell over. Not sure if it was the court conditions or the dizzy faces. But, no excuses. Easter Sunday belongs to Stanford, he is Switzerland’s Easter Bunny.”

  3. Carole Bouchard ‏@carole_bouchard Β· 12m
    Federer feels it’s time to get some rest. Body feels all the matches played.Still wanna play next M1000.Said Stan raised level and he didn’t

  4. Carole Bouchard ‏@carole_bouchard Β· 53m
    From Djokovic camp : full rest to be observed for next 7-8 days. Then only, situation to be evaluated again

  5. So Stan did it! Good for Mona for having the courage to predict this win. Stan certainly made it competitive. I guess he really does believe now. This was a big win for him against his compatriot who he has never beaten. Fed lost a golden opportunity here.

    I will check out the match on the replay later today. One by one, Stan is getting first wins against players he has never beaten. Oh and let me be clear. I do NOT count the AO final as a win against Rafa!

    Now we just need Rafa to get it all sorted out and win Barcelona!

      • I don’t count that “win” over Rafa because of the back injury. Rafa couldn’t play. Now I know that it is recorded as a win, but for me there is an asterisk next to it. Now if Stan beats a healthy Rafa, then that’s something else.

        Maybe I should clarify that if he wins fair and square.

    • When the match started I was really disappointed with Stans performance bcos I know he could play much better, so I was happy I had to leave for church so I would not have to watch.

      I just hope that Rafa and the others fix what needs fixing so we get to see a more exciting season and not with one tainted with injuries, mental bruises. I can’t wait to see Rafa back to his old self again, and perhaps this serve him well, I just feel it!

      Happy Easter to you all, watching basket ball in the mean time until I see my Rafa again. Another set of stress though, Heat is trailing in their playoff game, darn! Just can’t seem to get a break!!………lol!!!

  6. So looks like I was the only one who gave stan a decent chance of winning this… Even when Stan lost the first set, I knew it was quite possible for him to win the match… haha

    Good for stan… and now, you guys should abort that ‘bend over’ theory ! haha…

    • ^^^^

      Ha, ha! You weren’t the only one! I said that it would be a competitive match going three sets. I did not think it would go the way of their past matches. Stan seems to now have the belief, even against someone he never beat.

      I am going to see the replay of this match later on the tennis channel. This one I have to see!

      Here Fed had a golden opportunity with no Rafa and still couldn’t capitalize. I want to see how Stan pulled this off.

      Mona did predict that Stan would win! Great call!

      I know that you also believe it would be a real match.

      • oh , now i remember you also said it would be a tough one and will be decided in 3… i did not post here but my head said stan ! federer did waste this opportunity..

        great call mona, must have skipped your post amidst all the ‘bending over ‘ theories..

  7. So Stan did made it tough for Fed and eventually won it. Like I said in my earlier post, the match was pretty even from the beginning and Stan was not gonna fold mentally now.
    Congrats STAN!!
    As I mentioned before AO, Stan has achieved those wins over Fed, Nole and Rafa. Ok, we can question his win against Rafa, but still I feel that he will get another win in this season if they do face each other especially on HC’s. Last season he showed us that he was getting close to beating him but couldn’t handle the pressure points. Maybe now he can play more freely.
    the biggest challenge for him now going forward is to be physically and mentally fit. Can’t afford another lapse here like he had after the AO.

  8. @Sanju
    Maybe now you can understand why I had those worries regarding Fed winning the title against Stan. Stan is not the same guy anymore.

    • Yes now that he has proved us wrong, no more bend over theory. The one who plays better wins it going forth. Winning a Masters final against Fed ould hvae set him free nd relieved him of all the demons

    • @abhirf, seriously are you not worried about the pattern that is being established by Roger of late, running out of steam in 3-setters? Roger does not change his game according to surface, it’s all out attack with him so we cannot say it will be different at Wimby. He can do it at Halle but only if he restricts his matches to 2-sets I think.

      I think Roger’s showing the mileage inn his legs to be honest.

      • @ritb, Well to be honest I’m pretty worried about his inconsistency to last as the match wears on. But that has been his problem from the past 4-5 yrs and it’s only gonna get worse. But I do take heart from his AO showing this year. His game level fluctuates the least on grass courts. Look at his past 4 defeats at Wimbledon. He lost all the matches playing at a constant level. He was neither able to up his level nor did he faded off after starting good. He was not able to come out with the required level each time.
        That’s why I want him to rest but also want him to carry some momentum heading to the Wimby. No need to burnout himself during the clay season. If he can enter Wimbledon playing good tennis he may well end up winning it. If he’s playing well on grass, it’s really difficult to beat him.

      • I agree. I really can’t see Fed winning hard 5 setters any more. And surely players are saying to themselves, “Ok magic tennis for 2 sets, now let’s see.” And giving themselves a fighting chance. He won’t be able to come forward and volley against the top players either. He’ll have to exchange baseline rallies sometimes.

  9. When Stan is in full flight hes a joy to watch. He can smack winners at will and the trio of Rafa, Fed, Nole look quiet helpless when Stan is in his zone. The issue is can he do it consistently over 3 sets because Stan has a high risk game.

    So folks given that Stan and Fed will be likely seeded 3 & 4, whom do u prefer to see Rafa drawing in semi?

      • He can but whats the preference. Who will be tougher? Me thinks Stan can be tougher as he can swing really hard from both sides

      • Question is given San and Fed will be ranked 3 and 4, who is better for Rafa to be drawn into his hlf in slams and Masters and on surfaces – clay,grass, hard

      • @Sanju, given Rafa’s dominance over Fed it goes without saying that Fed will always be an easier opponent for Rafa. There is nothing in Fed’s current game to suggest this situation will change now or going into the future.

        Stan, otoh, has improved his game and his mentality. He beat an injured Rafa the last time they met. I hope he meets a healthy Rafa (both mentally and physically) soon so we can gauge the degree of his improvement. I would still expect Stan to lose, although maybe taking a set off Rafa this time, unlike the situation prior to Oz 2014 when he could not even get a set.

      • @ritb,
        I think Stan will win one encounter this year if they (Rafa & Stan) do face off each other multiple times this season.

      • “@Sanju, given Rafa’s dominance over Fed it goes without saying that Fed will always be an easier opponent for Rafa”

        Waaa Waaa whaaaaaat?

        Fed has a muuuuch better record vs Rafa than Stan. 10-23. Wawa is a lowly 1-12 vs Rafa, his only win when Rafa was obviously injured.

        Either one doesn’t really matter but come on, prior to AO, poor Stan was 0-24 in SETS played against Rafa.

        Tougher matchup?

        Respectfully, no.

    • I dont think Stan is necessarily a lock in future 3-setters with any of the top players he has beaten recently but he has proved he has the stamina to go five sets in the Slams.
      With his new found confidence he may well be the cause of a few upsets this year.

      • I remember a comment by someone prominent celebrity that he had a hard time recalling a sport where the same faces turned up in the latter stages of a tournament as Fed, Rafa, Novak and Muzza had been doing, as a foursome. This is the question, can Stan turn up consistently at the business end of tournaments he enters? In other words, can Stan displace one of the Big 4 to become a bona member of the Big 4 himself?

      • He’s a big, beefy boy too. Am wondering how he’s going to get on if he goes deep into the majors and plays more often.
        That being said, on song he’s gr8 to watch. πŸ™‚

      • This is pure speculation but I have a suspicion it will be his temperament that could prove to be the limiting factor in his progress. He is given to petulance – a deeply unattractive trait in a tennis player – and has already displayed a tendency to prima donna behaviour since he hit the big time. There is also the strange sub-par performance in the DC QFs which was inexplicable.

      • re: RITB@8:16am
        As far as I know there has never been such a protracted period in the Open Era when the same four guys dominated the rankings. The four musketeers have been jousting in or near the top 4 spots for the past six years.

        Food for thought. Rafa and Andy were both able to beat Federer while he was in his prime and they were still in their teens: Nole had just turned twenty when he beat TMF for the first time.

        Good as he has become, I can’t see WaWa (or any other player) gatecrashing that particular party for any length of time in the near future.

    • deucy,

      I think you made some excellent points in your comment @ 12:50 pm! I can see players thinking that Fed won’t be able to keep it up. They won’t be as inclined to give up against him now. The serve and volley isn’t going to work against players who can hit good passing shots.

  10. It’s not about who we prefer Rafa to face in the semis. On clay we shouldn’t have to worry. We all know the h2h with Fed. That speaks for itself. In the past, Rafa has owned Stan on all surfaces. The question now is whether this new Stan can beat him on clay.

  11. I wanted Rafa to meet Stan at MC, unfortunately Rafa did not. I would prefer they meet before RG first and I hope this comes at Rome as Madrid could be a little dicey with the altitude and all. I think Rafa’s in too fragile a state of mind right now for surprises.

    Having said that, I have a hard time accepting Stan could beat Rafa this time. I think Stan has definitely upped his game, the once erratic FH is steadier although still the weaker side. His mentality was impressive yesterday against Fed. Before he would have been expected to fold after going a set down but instead he doubled down and slowly imposed himself on Roger. Very impressive.

    We saw how Rafa failed to up his game when he fell behind against Ferru, quite uncharacteristic. The same happened to Fed yesterday. He failed to respond when Stan upped his game. I am inclined to think Rafa’s lapse was an abherration.

    Barcelona first!

  12. There was a general misapprehension on the part of many people that this was the first time Stan had beaten Fed. I like the symmetry that his only other win against Fed had come at Monte Carlo ’09.

    I had been on the brink of backing Stan for the win but calculated Fed’s years of experience in finals would carry the day. Should have recognised Stan’s clinical SF dispatch of Ferrer did not bode well for Federer who had already been stretched in several matches.

    • I wasn’t convinced Stan’s mentality would stand up to Fed’s intimidating presence. He proved me wrong, and then some.

  13. RT @tuncarayol: “So after winning 4 tournaments his entire career, Wawrinka has won 3 of the 5 tournaments he has entered in 2014.”

    Well done, Wawa. Coach Norman should be proud too. Clearly he has made a difference.

  14. I didn’t realize that Stan beat Fed in the past. I thought that he was never able to beat him. I wonder why Stan wasn’t able to follow up on that win and beat Fed more often.

    There’s definitely been a change in Stan. He now seems to believe. He always had the game and the shots, but now the mental strength seems to be there. The question remains as to whether he can win consistently the way the other top players have done.

  15. I am reading this esp.go.com article and the following statement by Djokovic caught my eye:

    “During his presser, Djokovic said the transition from hard courts to clay could have played a role in his injury. He also mentioned he β€œstarted too strong,” meaning he didn’t give himself a chance to properly adjust to the strenuous nature of dirt.”

    http://espn.go.com/blog/espntennis/post/_/id/1220/only-concern-for-djokovic-now-french-open

    So we fans were ooh-ing and aah-ing about the breadsticks and doughnuts Djokovic was handing out in the early rounds and he is saying the effort to achieve that may have been too much too soon?

    Not suggesting Rafa was wise to “start slow” in MC, he was pants, period. But what Djokovic says is interesting. I certainly had not looked at it that way.

    • rafaisthebest@April 21, 2014 at 9:59 am
      —So WE fans were ooh-ing and aah-ing about the breadsticks and doughnuts Djokovic was handing out in the early rounds—

      Who were these ‘WE’?

      • Ahem, @augusta08, work with me here, I am trying to be diplomatic! Who cares who said what now, we now know, from Djokovic himself, that this was not such a smart strategy afterall given this was the first tournament on clay. You said as much on the Barcelona thread when you said breadsticks and doughnuts may not be such a good idea for Rafa to aim at in Barcelona.

      • I’ve noticed a certain tetchiness has crept into some of the comments since Rafa blotted his copybook last Thursday πŸ˜‰

        We all have our different ways of reacting to his shock defeats – some of my friends have commented that I’ve been like a bear with a sore head ever since but I’ve tried not to take it out on people here.

      • So, @deucy, is that a real ooh and aah, or are they in suspended animation, still observing the opponents??

        Btw, y’all will have noticed I don’t do smileys…….that’s because I do not know how to. There………

      • @ed251137, to be expected no, the blues if Rafa loses, I mean? You, to your credit, are more “together” than some of us, at least me. I’m more comfortable letting it all hang out! If I’m offended by a particular post, I address it directly. Keeps me sane, and it also means……………….no grudges!

        I think as long as we are direct, frank and honest with one another, there’s nothing wrong. If you find a particular post “tetchy”, talk to the particular poster. We can’t say everybody’s entitled to their opinion on one hand and look for the muzzle with the other………

        But that’s just me talking….

        Besides, I know there’s a big, bad wolf called the Rickster ready to whip me into line should I over-step!

      • I would like to know who the “we” are. Because I don’t recall people here oohing and aahing over Novak’s early wins. I certainly wasn’t one of them. We’ve seen him do this before and then have a much tougher time in the latter stages of a tournament.

      • I just want to say a big amen to ed’s post @ 11:53 am. I think it needed to be said. There’s no reason for Rafa fans to go at each other when he loses. People do process his losses in different ways. There is no right or wrong way to deal with it. So I say we respect each other. That would be refreshing.

  16. @RITB
    Am so pessimistic about Andy’s recovery, I’m not even expecting him to be in “the big 4” come the end of this year. It’s gonna take a while.
    So yes, Stan could easily be part of a new Big 4. Or will the original “big 4” always be referred to in that way? Don’t really know if the moment is passing, but it seemed pretty iconic and I feel kinda sad.

    • original Big 4 will always be. It cannot be undone.

      If Stan wins enough to be a part of some new group, it will have to be referred to as something else.

      • Muzza has not been shunted to the scrap-heap yet @deucy, give it a rest. He was not at MC, a tournament he hardly ever turns up for. He can mop up a lot of points in Madrid, Rome and RG and be back where he belongs in no time.

        I recently read an article by a top coach saying Muzza has the game to be a real contender on clay and I believe that……………

      • Gussie, you could regret giving RITB that link πŸ˜›
        Tenngrand will be lit up like a ruddy Christmas tree from now on.

    • deucy,

      I think you should still have faith that Andy is going to get back to his best form. No one said that it would be easy.

      However, as Ricky said he will always be part of the big four. Nothing can change that. He has two slams and an Olympic gold medal.

      Just try to think good thoughts and hang in there! πŸ™‚

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