Monte-Carlo final preview and pick: Wawrinka vs. Federer

Fed presser 1It will be an all-Swiss final on Sunday in Monte-Carlo, with Stanislas Wawrinka going up against Roger Federer. Both men are looking for their first title at the event.

Stanislas Wawrinka and Roger Federer will be squaring off for the 15th time in their careers when they battle for the Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters title on Sunday afternoon.

Federer is dominating the head-to-head series 13-1, with a 3-1 mark on clay. Interestingly, however, Wawrinka’s lone victory over his fellow Swiss came at this same Monte-Carlo event (via a 6-4, 7-5 decision in the 2009 third round). They have faced each other only once since 2012 and on no occasions since last year’s Indian Wells Masters, where Federer prevailed in three sets.

The 2014 campaign has been kind to both men, with Wawrinka posting the most impressive results of his career and Federer enjoying a resurgence following a disappointing 2012. Wawrinka is 19-3 for the season with his first Grand Slam triumph at the Australian Open in addition to a winner’s trophy in Chennai. Federer’s 28-4 mark includes a title in Dubai and a runner-up showing in Indian Wells.

Wawrinka did not drop a set en route to the Monte-Carlo final, taking out Marin Cilic, Milos Raonic, and David Ferrer–who had upset Rafael Nadal in Friday’s quarterfinals. The world No. 3 also got a walkover past Nicolas Almagro in the third round. Federer survived one stumbling block against Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, whom the No. 4 seed defeated 2-6, 7-6(6), 6-1 after being two points from defeat in the second set. That came in between straight-set scalps of Radek Stepanek, Lukas Rosol, and defending champion Novak Djokovic–who was struggling with a wrist injury.

This may not be a rout because Wawrinka is in great form, is well-rested, and clay gives him his best chance against Federer. Given his past futility, however, Wawrinka has to have a mental block against his favored countryman and that should help Federer regain the status of being Switzerland’s No. 1 player. That, too, is on the line in this one.

Pick: Federer in 3

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13 Comments on Monte-Carlo final preview and pick: Wawrinka vs. Federer

  1. I’ve mentioned before that I was surprised that Rafa has been so successful with his admitted fear of losing as a good motivator.

    Google “fear of losing sports” and every article talks about the negative aspect that it can have such as tentative play.

    http://www.peaksports.com/sports_psychology_blog/?p=851
    http://www.thesportinmind.com/articles/overcoming-fear-of-failure-and-risk-taking/

    This might partially explain why Rafa performs better when expectations are lower (such as after his injury) and worse after he finished No. 1 when expectations are raised.

    Just sayin’.

    • ^^^^^And why he is detests being touted as the favourite, even when he patently is.

      A complex character our Nadal. In the 80s/90s there was a riveting series on BBC radio and TV called ‘In the Psychiatrist’s Chair’ when Dr. Anthony Clare interviewed high profile people – managing to get them to open up in the most extraordinary way to reveal their innermost feelings.

      Clare interviewing Rafa would have been fascinating.

  2. @hawkeye,

    Interesting points. Food for thought.

    For myself, I do not have any problem with comments expressing dissatisfaction with Rafa. It’s human for people to get frustrated and maybe lose patience or be upset when their player is struggling. Those comments can still come from a place of caring because if you don’t care about a player then you wouldn’t bother saying anything at all.

    I am okay with whatever process works for any Rafa fan in dealing with losses or disappointments or injuries.

  3. As I thought or rather as I was 99.9% sure Nole just confirmed (read it in the Serbian newspaper) that his injury is nothing serious and that he will be ready to play Madrid…so much of his “injury break”…although I believe that he must have felt some pain he was still beaten by Fed in MC and he should admit it…that’s all…

    • ^^Technically, he is not having a “break” as he normally does not play a tournament the between Monte Carlo and Madrid anyway. It is a normal break for him…………

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