Last year, Rafael Nadal lost in Monte-Carlo then bounced back to win at another one of his stomping grounds in Barcelona. The world No. 1 is looking to do the same this time around after falling to David Ferrer in the Monte-Carlo quarterfinals. Nadal and Ferrer lead in the way in Barcelona, which also features Fabio Fognini, Alexadr Dolgopolov, Ernests Gulbis, and Marin Cilic. In Bucharest, meanwhile, Grigor Dimitrov is the top seed at an event in which most of the other would-be favorites are in the midst of mighty struggles.
Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell
Where: Barcelona, Spain
Surface: Clay
Prize money: 1,845,585 Euros
Points: 500
Top seed: Rafael Nadal
Defending champion: Rafael Nadal
Draw analysis: There’s a decent chance Nadal’s road to the semifinals will feature exclusively fellow Spaniards. The top seed could face Albert Ramos in the second round, Feliciano Lopez in the last 16, and either Nicolas Almagro or Fernando Verdasco in the quarters. Interestingly, though, while the top section is riddled with Spanish players, the second quarter of the draw includes just one—Marcel Granollers. A likely semifinal opponent for Nadal is Fognini, whose nearest top eight seed is a woefully out of form Jerzy Janowicz.
The bottom half of the bracket, of course, is more wide open even with Ferrer playing well. Ferrer’s path looks favorable at least until the quarterfinals, at which point he could run into one of two mercurial performers in Dolgopolov or Gulbis. Both are dangerous, but the No. 2 seed should be able to handle either one on clay. Both Dolgopolov and Gulbis will likely open with Spaniards following first-round byes.
A semifinal spot out of the draw’s third quarter seems to be entirely up for grabs. The section boasts incredible depth but lacks a standout favorite. Among the contenders are Cilic, Kei Nishikori, Tommy Robredo, Roberto Bautista Agut, and Joao Sousa. Nishikori may have to kick off his campaign against an in-form Bautista Agut, who would have home-court advantage in Spain. Both Cilic (Pablo Carreno Busta) and Robredo (Sousa) also may have tough openers on their hands.
Second-round upset alert: Roberto Bautista Agut over (4) Kei Nishikori. Nishikori is an awesome 17-4 this season, but he has not played since Miami due to a groin injury that forced him out of a scheduled semifinal against Novak Djokovic. Although his game can work well on clay, he generally does by far his best work on hard courts. Bautista Agut is healthy and in outstanding form. He owns 14 ATP match wins this season and registers one spot off his career-high ranking at 45th in the world. Playing at home in Spain and on clay, Bautista Agut would have a strong chance as long as he gets past Lukasz Kubot in the first round.
Hot: Fabio Fognini, Alexandr Dolgopolov, Fernando Verdasco, Marin Cilic, Joao Sousa, Pablo Carreno Busta, Roberto Bautista Agut, Aleksandr Nedovyesov, Teymuraz Gabashvili
Cold: Nicolas Almagro, Jerzy Janowicz, Benoit Paire, Nikolay Davydenko, Martin Klizan, Somdev Devvarman, Igor Sijsling, Jurgen Melzer
Quarterfinal predictions: Rafael Nadal over Fernando Verdasco, Fabio Fognini over Philipp Kohlschreiber, Tommy Robredo over Roberto Bautista Agut, and David Ferrer over Alexandr Dolgopolov
Semifinals: Nadal over Fognini and Ferrer over Robredo
Final: Nadal over Ferrer
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BRD Nastase Tiriac Trophy
Where: Bucharest, Romania
Surface: Clay
Prize money: 426,605 Euros
Points: 250
Top seed: Grigor Dimitrov
Defending champion: Lukas Rosol
Draw analysis: It’s a remarkably lopsided draw in Bucharest this week, with both Dimitrov and Gael Monfils in the top half. Dimitrov is up to a career-high ranking of 14th in the world and Monfils—though lacking great results of late—is always dangerous when healthy. The top half of the bracket also features Andreas Seppi, Jeremy Chardy, and Carlos Berlocq. Dimitrov could face by the most difficult opener of the four opening-round bye recipients in Chardy, who first has to get past Jiri Vesely. Seppi and Berlocq also find themselves in Dimitrov’s quarter, which is by far the toughest of the four.
The three highest seeds in Bucharest’s bottom half are all ice cold. Struggling physically throughout 2014, No. 2 Mikhail Youzhny lost to Seppi in the Monte-Carlo first round and has not won a match since Dubai. No. 4 Gilles Simon is a dreadful 4-8 this year and has not won a main-draw match since Acapulco. A back injury has plagued No. 5 Vasek Pospisil, who has not won a match since the Australian Open (0-5 in that span). Thus, the door could be open for unseeded contenders like Robin Haase, Thomaz Bellucci, Victor Hanescu, and defending champion Lukas Rosol.
First-round upset alert: Leonardo Mayer over (8) Jarkko Nieminen. Nieminen is playing decent tennis at the moment, with 11 match victories for the season. However, the 32-year-old Finn has never been at his best on clay and he lost his Monte-Carlo opener to Ramos in straight sets. Mayer has not won a match since February (which is why this would be a considerable upset), but he finished runner-up to Fognini on the clay courts of Vina del Mar.
Hot: Grigor Dimitrov, Jiri Vesely
Cold: Mikhail Youzhny, Gael Monfils, Gilles Simon, Vasek Pospisil, Thomaz Bellucci, Matthew Ebden
Quarterfinal predictions: Grigor Dimitrov over Andreas Seppi, Gael Monfils over Adrian Mannarino, Victor Hanescu over Leonardo Mayer, and Robin Haase over Thomaz Bellucci
Semifinals: Dimitrov over Monfils and Haase over Hanescu
Final: Dimitrov over Haase
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Comments and your own predictions are appreciated!
Vamos Rafa!
I think that Rafa should be in your Cold category.
he’s in the category of players needing a cold beer
but his form is not cold
#DoYou
His form is cold. Not committing to his shots. Not enough depth on shots. Serve lacking.
The compromise – Rafa is cool.
https://twitter.com/augustazeight/status/458071621035491329/photo/1
This tournament will provide a good measure of Rafa’s confidence. Let’s see whether he hands his opponents bakery products or whether he just manages to win the title.
Why should Rafa try to hand bakery products???
Djoko tried hard in Monte Carlo to get praised for baggeling or breadsticking his opponents. And what’s the result? His damaged wrist!
Rafa has to avoid making this mistake! Bageling and breadisticing don’t give the winner extra points.
@augusta
I thought Nole has more problems adjusting to the clay after HC. Rafa is natural on clay.
He can demolish his opponents even without putting much of an effort. It’s not like he hasn’t done it in the past.
I don’t get it how you can sum up Nole’s problems on clay with that of Rafa.
Also hanging in there for too long with his opponents is also not going to be of much good for Rafa physically.
i disagree. if he can’t win this tournament, it’s serious panic time.
winning it would be nothing more than ho-hum given the lackluster field.
he needs to win Rome and he needs to beat good players in the process before Rafa’s confidence can be measured.
Ricky,
I could not have said it better myself! Concise and right to the point! This is it. Right now. Rafa should be expected to win this. I also agree that Rome is crucial. He does have to take on the good players and win so that he can go into RG with some confidence and momentum.
I think you’re all in agreement here that Rafa needs to win Barcelona to get his confidence back. I also agree. I think @augusta08 is saying is Rafa needs to win but not necessarily handing out bakery products left right and centre.
From my point of view, given where he is at, I would be happy with just good wins hoping he picks up the pace in Rome.
For once I agree with Ricky. Spot on.
I am working hard to set my expectations low, I am tired of being disappointed and I do not have the energy to panic. Not expecting Rafa’s level to be low, just setting my expectations low to avoid panic.
@Ricky,
Winning the title may make him feel good. Winning the title in a demolishing manner will do a loads of good to his confidence. Given the playing field, i expect him to do that.
Yes, I agree with you that he needs to beat some good players to have the confidence back in his game. But Rome is still far away. He first needs to build up to it in small measures. Nothing better than thumping everyone here.
Rafa prefers to be the hunter and needs a certain amount of adversity to excel.
He is well on his way, no?
rafaisthebest@April 21, 2014 at 7:20 am
After I have read Ricky’s comment thrice, I made a conclusion that he didn’t agree with abhirf (at 4:21 am).
abhirf@April 21, 2014 at 11:53 am
I don’t know what problems Djoko has, I mentioned his current injury as an example what can happen, if a player is trying too hard.
I don’t care if it’s breadsticks, bagels or whatever. As long as Rafa wins, that will be enough for me.
Barcelona draw is loaded, and great coverage on TC. Fognini may win it all, and no need to be worried about Rafa….he’ll be ready by RG!
Fognini!!
seriously??
Pretty sure Ferru is in the draw who just beat him.
Also, until proven otherwise, Rafa’s most formidable opponent in the Barcelona are the demons in his mind.
#QuietTheVoices
#BeatingADeadHorse
It would be good to see if Dimitrov can win a title in Bucharest.
BabyFed seriously overated.
What has he done other than beat a loopy Nole last year?
played Gulbis in a few good matches.
#LOL
Agree.
Interesting to see that Stan and Nole are heading the Race to london playing the least no. of tournaments in the Top 10.
Fed and Rafa have played more tournaments than they should have played till now.
abhirf@April 21, 2014 at 12:10 pm
What does it mean: ‘played more tournaments than they SHOULD have played till now’ ???
Rafa has always played in Doha in January. He has played in February, if he hasn’t been injured (or very tired after the AO).
C’mon @abhirf, Are you comparing the points haul from a 500 tourney and from a Slam? After winning a Slam, Stan can be on half the tourneys played by the other and still come out in front. The same goes for Djokovic with his 2 Masters wins (equal to a Slam).
It’s obvious…………
DO YOU?
Yes it’s quite obvious. Probably shouldn’t have posted that statement.
do you (pull out the) DO YOU as often as you do?
#Frampton
abhirf@April 21, 2014 at 12:10 pm
Wawrinka played at the Davis Cup (Jan/Feb) also.
Sorry my comment @ 7:09 pm was in response to hawkeye’s comment @ 12:11 pm.
Hope Ric’s prediction is correct and Foggy makes it through to play Rafa. That could be a fun match.
Would love to see Rafa’s face if Foggy had a huge, pouty, strop!
Sooner or later this clay season Rafa will put himself more or less back together (hopefully more than less). Remember 2011? He was about as unmotivated as he could be come the first week of RG and yet got himself through it and geared up through the second week to defend his trophy there when he looked the most vulnerable. So far he doesn’t seem nearly in as bad a shape mentally as then. And yes, he is becoming more the hunter now that things have become tougher, even though he is still no 1.
Well I just hope you not comparing 2011 when Rafa made finals of IW and Miami and won Monte Carlo with 2014 with Rafa making one final since AO and bowing out of his favourite tournament in the earliest round in his last ten appearances (takes a breath).
Don’t you? Or do you. No you did. OK. Good.
No this is by far the biggest funk I’ve seen him in for quite some time (maybe for all of the Rafa tennis history, for sure, no?).
“…………with Rafa making one final since AO and bowing out of his favourite tournament in the earliest round in his last ten appearances (takes a breath).”
I could be wrong, but I am pretty certain that was Rafael Nadal in the Rio final, winning it.
#TwoFinalsSinceAO
I think a more persuasive argument would go like this, paraphrasing Bodo,
“…….Nadal has failed to win a tournament in his last three tries—all of them Masters 1000 events, and one of them on clay no less.”
http://www.tennis.com/pro-game/2014/04/week-preview-stuttgart-barcelona/51233/#.U1Uz2E3NvIU
But yet, I am not worried………………..yet, nor do I think I will be tbh.
hawkeye63@April 21, 2014 at 3:00 pm
—with 2014 with Rafa making one final since AO —
2 finals:
¤ Rio de Janeiro, ATP-500 , won
¤ Miami Masters 1000 , runner-up
I stand corrected, thanks.^^’
However, a 250 where he barely beat Andujar 12-10 in 3rd set TB.
#NotConvinced
should read: I stand corrected, thanks. ^^’
#EmbarassedEmoticonFail
hawkeye63@April 21, 2014 at 3:30 pm
a 250?
^^’ ^^’
Hey! I finally figured out what words bracketed with colons means on the interwebs!!!
💡
:embarrassed:
#AboutTIme
@hawkeye08, please change your avatar, it looks ridiculous. Like Rafa’s being weighed down by a porcupine……….
NO! HE’S THE KING OF THE TENNIS! 👿
Please Tennis Gods, tell me Bautista-Agut and The Latvian Terror are on a collision course………..(virtual emoticon inserted, the begging one)
they are not!
So, does Albert Montanes just turn up for the clay season or what? I hardly ever hear of him the rest of the season………..
http://www.atpworldtour.com/Tennis/Players/Top-Players/Albert-Montanes.aspx?t=rb
:BorisBecker: emoticon
😎
I’ve sent a request to WordPress to create an emoticon that means DO YOU
:developer:
[polldaddy poll=7984342]
hawkeye,
how quickly
wordpress DID
the icon
😛
#émotions
Some really good matches in Barcelona tomorrow………………….
depends what your definition of “really good” is
Ricky,
Too funny! Yes! 🙂
@Ricky, really good for me is any match more exciting than what Wawa/Fed served up at MC final and the following have that potential at Barcelona:
DGT/Gulbis;
RBA/Nishikori (top of the list);
Thiem/Granollers
Ramos/Davydenko (just to see if Davy REALLY wants to play Rafa);
As you can see, doesn’t take much to excite me, hehehe!
Can’t see any of the above being like a meeting of the Williams sisters…………..
https://twitter.com/Rafaholics/status/458611198489919489/photo/1
Nadal-Ramos – https://tenngrand.com/2014/04/22/barcelona-r2-previews-and-picks-nadal-vs-ramos-ferrer-vs-gabashvili/