Last year, Rafael Nadal lost in Monte-Carlo then bounced back to win at another one of his stomping grounds in Barcelona. The world No. 1 is looking to do the same this time around after falling to David Ferrer in the Monte-Carlo quarterfinals. Nadal and Ferrer lead in the way in Barcelona, which also features Fabio Fognini, Alexadr Dolgopolov, Ernests Gulbis, and Marin Cilic. In Bucharest, meanwhile, Grigor Dimitrov is the top seed at an event in which most of the other would-be favorites are in the midst of mighty struggles.
Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell
Where: Barcelona, Spain
Surface: Clay
Prize money: 1,845,585 Euros
Points: 500
Top seed: Rafael Nadal
Defending champion: Rafael Nadal
Draw analysis: There’s a decent chance Nadal’s road to the semifinals will feature exclusively fellow Spaniards. The top seed could face Albert Ramos in the second round, Feliciano Lopez in the last 16, and either Nicolas Almagro or Fernando Verdasco in the quarters. Interestingly, though, while the top section is riddled with Spanish players, the second quarter of the draw includes just one—Marcel Granollers. A likely semifinal opponent for Nadal is Fognini, whose nearest top eight seed is a woefully out of form Jerzy Janowicz.
The bottom half of the bracket, of course, is more wide open even with Ferrer playing well. Ferrer’s path looks favorable at least until the quarterfinals, at which point he could run into one of two mercurial performers in Dolgopolov or Gulbis. Both are dangerous, but the No. 2 seed should be able to handle either one on clay. Both Dolgopolov and Gulbis will likely open with Spaniards following first-round byes.
A semifinal spot out of the draw’s third quarter seems to be entirely up for grabs. The section boasts incredible depth but lacks a standout favorite. Among the contenders are Cilic, Kei Nishikori, Tommy Robredo, Roberto Bautista Agut, and Joao Sousa. Nishikori may have to kick off his campaign against an in-form Bautista Agut, who would have home-court advantage in Spain. Both Cilic (Pablo Carreno Busta) and Robredo (Sousa) also may have tough openers on their hands.
Second-round upset alert: Roberto Bautista Agut over (4) Kei Nishikori. Nishikori is an awesome 17-4 this season, but he has not played since Miami due to a groin injury that forced him out of a scheduled semifinal against Novak Djokovic. Although his game can work well on clay, he generally does by far his best work on hard courts. Bautista Agut is healthy and in outstanding form. He owns 14 ATP match wins this season and registers one spot off his career-high ranking at 45th in the world. Playing at home in Spain and on clay, Bautista Agut would have a strong chance as long as he gets past Lukasz Kubot in the first round.
Hot: Fabio Fognini, Alexandr Dolgopolov, Fernando Verdasco, Marin Cilic, Joao Sousa, Pablo Carreno Busta, Roberto Bautista Agut, Aleksandr Nedovyesov, Teymuraz Gabashvili
Cold: Nicolas Almagro, Jerzy Janowicz, Benoit Paire, Nikolay Davydenko, Martin Klizan, Somdev Devvarman, Igor Sijsling, Jurgen Melzer
Quarterfinal predictions: Rafael Nadal over Fernando Verdasco, Fabio Fognini over Philipp Kohlschreiber, Tommy Robredo over Roberto Bautista Agut, and David Ferrer over Alexandr Dolgopolov
Semifinals: Nadal over Fognini and Ferrer over Robredo
Final: Nadal over Ferrer
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BRD Nastase Tiriac Trophy
Where: Bucharest, Romania
Surface: Clay
Prize money: 426,605 Euros
Points: 250
Top seed: Grigor Dimitrov
Defending champion: Lukas Rosol
Draw analysis: It’s a remarkably lopsided draw in Bucharest this week, with both Dimitrov and Gael Monfils in the top half. Dimitrov is up to a career-high ranking of 14th in the world and Monfils—though lacking great results of late—is always dangerous when healthy. The top half of the bracket also features Andreas Seppi, Jeremy Chardy, and Carlos Berlocq. Dimitrov could face by the most difficult opener of the four opening-round bye recipients in Chardy, who first has to get past Jiri Vesely. Seppi and Berlocq also find themselves in Dimitrov’s quarter, which is by far the toughest of the four.
The three highest seeds in Bucharest’s bottom half are all ice cold. Struggling physically throughout 2014, No. 2 Mikhail Youzhny lost to Seppi in the Monte-Carlo first round and has not won a match since Dubai. No. 4 Gilles Simon is a dreadful 4-8 this year and has not won a main-draw match since Acapulco. A back injury has plagued No. 5 Vasek Pospisil, who has not won a match since the Australian Open (0-5 in that span). Thus, the door could be open for unseeded contenders like Robin Haase, Thomaz Bellucci, Victor Hanescu, and defending champion Lukas Rosol.
First-round upset alert: Leonardo Mayer over (8) Jarkko Nieminen. Nieminen is playing decent tennis at the moment, with 11 match victories for the season. However, the 32-year-old Finn has never been at his best on clay and he lost his Monte-Carlo opener to Ramos in straight sets. Mayer has not won a match since February (which is why this would be a considerable upset), but he finished runner-up to Fognini on the clay courts of Vina del Mar.
Hot: Grigor Dimitrov, Jiri Vesely
Cold: Mikhail Youzhny, Gael Monfils, Gilles Simon, Vasek Pospisil, Thomaz Bellucci, Matthew Ebden
Quarterfinal predictions: Grigor Dimitrov over Andreas Seppi, Gael Monfils over Adrian Mannarino, Victor Hanescu over Leonardo Mayer, and Robin Haase over Thomaz Bellucci
Semifinals: Dimitrov over Monfils and Haase over Hanescu
Final: Dimitrov over Haase
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