Monte-Carlo final preview and pick: Wawrinka vs. Federer

Fed presser 1It will be an all-Swiss final on Sunday in Monte-Carlo, with Stanislas Wawrinka going up against Roger Federer. Both men are looking for their first title at the event.

Stanislas Wawrinka and Roger Federer will be squaring off for the 15th time in their careers when they battle for the Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters title on Sunday afternoon.

Federer is dominating the head-to-head series 13-1, with a 3-1 mark on clay. Interestingly, however, Wawrinka’s lone victory over his fellow Swiss came at this same Monte-Carlo event (via a 6-4, 7-5 decision in the 2009 third round). They have faced each other only once since 2012 and on no occasions since last year’s Indian Wells Masters, where Federer prevailed in three sets.

The 2014 campaign has been kind to both men, with Wawrinka posting the most impressive results of his career and Federer enjoying a resurgence following a disappointing 2012. Wawrinka is 19-3 for the season with his first Grand Slam triumph at the Australian Open in addition to a winner’s trophy in Chennai. Federer’s 28-4 mark includes a title in Dubai and a runner-up showing in Indian Wells.

Wawrinka did not drop a set en route to the Monte-Carlo final, taking out Marin Cilic, Milos Raonic, and David Ferrer–who had upset Rafael Nadal in Friday’s quarterfinals. The world No. 3 also got a walkover past Nicolas Almagro in the third round. Federer survived one stumbling block against Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, whom the No. 4 seed defeated 2-6, 7-6(6), 6-1 after being two points from defeat in the second set. That came in between straight-set scalps of Radek Stepanek, Lukas Rosol, and defending champion Novak Djokovic–who was struggling with a wrist injury.

This may not be a rout because Wawrinka is in great form, is well-rested, and clay gives him his best chance against Federer. Given his past futility, however, Wawrinka has to have a mental block against his favored countryman and that should help Federer regain the status of being Switzerland’s No. 1 player. That, too, is on the line in this one.

Pick: Federer in 3

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34 Comments on Monte-Carlo final preview and pick: Wawrinka vs. Federer

    • I must say, Stan played with confidence yesterday. The way he was running and hoping around the court. I couldn’t help contrast that with Rafa’s slumped shoulders during his match against Ferru.

  1. Fed in straights…no way Wawa takes a set from Fed unless Fed suddenly decides to stay longer on the court just for the fun of it..

  2. Roger should be exceptionally motivated for this. He’s in a clay final where he isn’t facing Rafa. This will probably be his last opportunity to win Monte Carlo and he’ll want to take full advantage of that. He’ll be fully confident against Stan, regardless of whether Stan’s playing either well or poorly. On the other hand, Stan is also playing with confidence, but that may change once he’s on court and sees his superior countryman on the other side of the net. I do think it will be quite competitive, possibly straight sets for Roger, but more than likely 3.

  3. jpacnw,

    Well said! I agree with your thoughts. Fed knows that chances like this don’t come along that often during clay season. He’s got an opportunity to gain 1000 points and get the #3 ranking. He has the lopsided h2h with Stan that gives him so much confidence when he plays him.

    Can Stan do what he did against Novak? I don’t think so. He had been knocking on the door in previous match when he pushed Novak. But we don’t have any evidence that he has challenged Fed. Belief is so important in these matches.

    I guess we are going to see if this time, Stan is ready to give it his best and play like he has a chance of winning. I already made my prediction. I agree with you about the match being competitive and going three sets.

  4. I saw the way Fed played against Tsonga……..he was on the ropes, Tsonga exposed some weaknesses and I think if Stan keeps the pressure on he will beat Roger in three sets. Stan will Come out firing like he did with Ferrer but if he let’s patriotism get to him he WILL lose, if he says sod it, he will win! my pick, Stan in three, won’t be surprised if he wins in straights coz I have not been impressed with Fed in this tourney!

    • Mona,

      I like your pick! Going against the grain. I got burned when I didn’t go with my gut instinct and pick Stan to win over Ferrer. I didn’t see much of the match with Fed and Tsonga. It’s possible that Fed just got really lucky with Novak’s injury.

      It would really be something if Stan was finally able to beat his fellow Swiss.

  5. I still think Fed will find the way to win but, like Mona says, it would not surprise me if Stan upsets the applecart.

  6. Stan has always had an inferiority complex whenever Fed is on the other side of the net โ€“ subtly nurtured by Federer I might add. However, tennis history is littered with lop-sided H2Hs when the underdog has unexpectedly prevailed. This afternoon could be just such an occasion and will be decided by who can control their nerves the best.

  7. On this form, Stan can certainly win a physical contest, but can he win a mental one?
    Oh lol, now RITB will accuse me of putting Stan in a psychiatric ward too …;)
    BUT, beyond a certain level of skill of course, tennis really is “between the ears.”
    And as a long term member of the Andy Murray fan club, I know this to truth…;)

  8. When Rafa went out and Fed came out to play immediately after I knew Fed would do everything in his power to get to the final and win. He will win even if it means challenging (wrongly) each and every one of Stan’s shots and intimidating him with a swear word or two….

  9. Good one, Khols:

    RT @Kohlscribbler :Since when do they play the Suisse National Tennis Championships in Monte Carlo? @stanwawrinka vs. @rogerfederer
    #OneHandedBackhandsRule”

  10. I feel it’s a toss up between the 2. Both have almost equal chance of winning it. Maybe say I’m tilted 55:45 in favour of Fed.

    • Cmon Abhi you know Roger will win it :-). Hs not injured like Rafa was in the AO final for Stan to pull off a victory in a Masters or GS final against the Big 4. And Roger has never won this tourney, hes taking it home

      • But Stan is playing really well. I know that Fed has that extra motivation and I too want him to win this trophy that is missing from his cabinet. He will need to take a fast start here. If he gives any time for Wawa to settle early in the 1st set he could end up in a lot of trouble. As for not winning a final, there’s always a 1st time.
        Wawa seems to have come a long way and maybe he will be under more pressure to prove that he has improved mentally.
        I feel it’s gonna be a tough bout.

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