A blockbuster semifinal showdown between Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal will be featured on Saturday in Indian Wells. That will be preceded in the stadium by Milos Raonic vs. David Goffin.
(1) Novak Djokovic vs. (4) Rafael Nadal
Djokovic and Nadal will be facing each other for the 48th time in their careers when they meet again in the semifinals of the BNP Paribas Open on Saturday afternoon. The World Tour Finals last fall gave Djokovic a chance to level the head-to-head series and that is exactly what he did with a 6-3, 6-3 semifinal rout of the Spaniard. Now it is Nadal’s turn to try for an even 24-24 record, as Djokovic took a slight lead by rolling 6-1, 6-2 in the Doha title match two months ago. These two rivals have squared off three times in Indian Wells, with Djokovic leading 2-1 after most recently getting the job done 4-6, 6-3, 6-2 in the 2011 title match.
The world No. 1 has been less than dominant since winning the Australian Open. He retired from a Dubai quarterfinal clash against Feliciano Lopez due to an eye infection and Kazakhstan’s Mikhail Kukushkin pushed the Serb to five sets in the Davis Cup opening round. Djokovic’s run in the desert includes a three-setter against Bjorn Fratangelo and straight-set defeats of Philipp Kohlschreiber, Feliciano Lopez, and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. The Frenchman forced a pair of tiebreakers on Friday but had no chance in the critical moments and lost 7-6(2), 7-6(2). Nadal booked his spot in the last four by taking out Gilles Muller, Fernando Verdasco, Alexander Zverev, and Kei Nishikori. Playing with a proverbial second life after surviving a match point against Zverev, the world No. 5 turned in his best performance of the event for a 6-4, 6-3 win over Nishikori. Conditions in the desert will suit Nadal better than those of their last two showdowns in London and Doha. But the bottom line is that Djokovic has Nadal’s number–five wins in a row, to be exact–under any circumstances at the moment.
Pick: Djokovic in 2
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(15) David Goffin vs. (12) Milos Raonic
If Raonic is this good after missing more than a month because of injury, just think how productive he could have been if he had been able to play throughout February. The Canadian had been sidelined since the Australian Open (lost to Andy Murray in the semifinals) by an adductor problem, but he is back in business in Indian Wells. So far this fortnight he has defeated Inigo Cervantes, Bernard Tomic, Tomas Berdych, and Gael Monfils without surrendering a single set. Raonic is now 13-1 for the season and he is aiming for his second title, having previously triumphed in Brisbane.
Up next for the 12th seed is a second career meeting with Goffin, who got the best of their Basel battle in 2014 via a 6-7(3), 6-3, 6-4 decision. The 18th-ranked Belgian has sustained momentum from a pair of Davis Cup singles wins over Croatia, but it has not been easy. He saved two match points in his Indian Wells opener against Frances Tiafoe and also needed three sets to oust Guido Pella and Stan Wawrinka before finally winning a straight-setter against Marin Cilic, whom he also beat in Davis Cup action. This looks like too tough of a test for Goffin, as the pressure will be on to hold serve just about every time he toes the line because Raonic appears to be borderline unbreakable at the moment. Monfils managed to accomplish the feat once, but once was nowhere near enough with the world No. 14 also playing big from the baseline.
Pick: Raonic in 2
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Sorry for the double post…have no idea how it happened…
Anyway, Vamos Rafa!
Didn’t see too much of the match but what I saw wasn’t high quality. Final match stats 23-29 for Nole and 12-26 winners/unforced for Rafa. Not my type of tennis. Nole certainly looking vulnerable these days. A decent effort from Stan probably would have been enough today. Stan or Thiem for the French.
Novak has looked pretty vulnerable lately. Really annoys me because he is still grinding out these ugly wins and is gonna take the title. Doubt Raonic will get a set let alone win the match. Fed being out and Stan and Murray losing kind of just allowed Novak to not play that well and still win here. At least Roger will be in Miami. I hope tomorrow will be a good final. I’ll be pulling for Milos but I doubt he will win that one.
I thought the first set was quite entertaining and good quality. Novak wasn’t at his best but some of that had to do with Rafa playing do much better. He pushed Novak and made it very competitive.
As far as the UE’s, I don’t think that both players being in the 20’s was all that high. The ESPN commies were saying that the higher UE’s were due to both players going for so much on their shots.
I think that Novak got stronger as the match went on and Rafa wasn’t able to be as competitive as in the first set.
People keep saying that Novak is winning ugly and not being pushed or forced to play his best, but that’s what it takes to stay on top
. Rafa has won ugly, so has Fed. It’s unrealistic to expect Novak to play at his best all the time. It’s not going to happen.
As far as Stan being able to do better against Novak, from what I saw if him in this tournament he was nowhere near his best. The way he lost to Goffin was uninspiring, to say the least. Stan can be a tough match up for Novak, but only if he’s on his game,
The UEs doesn’t really speak for the quality of the match. There were plenty of extended rallies, someone has to make an mistake at the end…
Overall, pretty good match. Both players played at a high level.
Laak,
I agree with your assessment of the match. Also about the UE count not being an indicator of the quality of the match. It’s easy to get caught up in stats.
I think there were some brilliant rallies with great shot making at different points in the match. As the second set went on, there was a sense of inevitability about the outcome.
Rafa just had to work too hard to hold his serve.
I think Rafa will feel good about his progress, how he did at this tournament and what needs to be done going forward. I did not think he was ready to beat Novak yet. But he’s made some great strides and should be able to get even better.
Novak will take the wins any way he can get them. He has so much confidence and belief right now and sometimes that’s enough. We will have to wait and see if anyone can step up to challenge him.
the UE counts were not that high…….
Ricky,
I agree and that was the point I was trying to make in response to those who brought it up.