A blockbuster semifinal showdown between Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal will be featured on Saturday in Indian Wells. That will be preceded in the stadium by Milos Raonic vs. David Goffin.
(1) Novak Djokovic vs. (4) Rafael Nadal
Djokovic and Nadal will be facing each other for the 48th time in their careers when they meet again in the semifinals of the BNP Paribas Open on Saturday afternoon. The World Tour Finals last fall gave Djokovic a chance to level the head-to-head series and that is exactly what he did with a 6-3, 6-3 semifinal rout of the Spaniard. Now it is Nadal’s turn to try for an even 24-24 record, as Djokovic took a slight lead by rolling 6-1, 6-2 in the Doha title match two months ago. These two rivals have squared off three times in Indian Wells, with Djokovic leading 2-1 after most recently getting the job done 4-6, 6-3, 6-2 in the 2011 title match.
The world No. 1 has been less than dominant since winning the Australian Open. He retired from a Dubai quarterfinal clash against Feliciano Lopez due to an eye infection and Kazakhstan’s Mikhail Kukushkin pushed the Serb to five sets in the Davis Cup opening round. Djokovic’s run in the desert includes a three-setter against Bjorn Fratangelo and straight-set defeats of Philipp Kohlschreiber, Feliciano Lopez, and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. The Frenchman forced a pair of tiebreakers on Friday but had no chance in the critical moments and lost 7-6(2), 7-6(2). Nadal booked his spot in the last four by taking out Gilles Muller, Fernando Verdasco, Alexander Zverev, and Kei Nishikori. Playing with a proverbial second life after surviving a match point against Zverev, the world No. 5 turned in his best performance of the event for a 6-4, 6-3 win over Nishikori. Conditions in the desert will suit Nadal better than those of their last two showdowns in London and Doha. But the bottom line is that Djokovic has Nadal’s number–five wins in a row, to be exact–under any circumstances at the moment.
Pick: Djokovic in 2
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(15) David Goffin vs. (12) Milos Raonic
If Raonic is this good after missing more than a month because of injury, just think how productive he could have been if he had been able to play throughout February. The Canadian had been sidelined since the Australian Open (lost to Andy Murray in the semifinals) by an adductor problem, but he is back in business in Indian Wells. So far this fortnight he has defeated Inigo Cervantes, Bernard Tomic, Tomas Berdych, and Gael Monfils without surrendering a single set. Raonic is now 13-1 for the season and he is aiming for his second title, having previously triumphed in Brisbane.
Up next for the 12th seed is a second career meeting with Goffin, who got the best of their Basel battle in 2014 via a 6-7(3), 6-3, 6-4 decision. The 18th-ranked Belgian has sustained momentum from a pair of Davis Cup singles wins over Croatia, but it has not been easy. He saved two match points in his Indian Wells opener against Frances Tiafoe and also needed three sets to oust Guido Pella and Stan Wawrinka before finally winning a straight-setter against Marin Cilic, whom he also beat in Davis Cup action. This looks like too tough of a test for Goffin, as the pressure will be on to hold serve just about every time he toes the line because Raonic appears to be borderline unbreakable at the moment. Monfils managed to accomplish the feat once, but once was nowhere near enough with the world No. 14 also playing big from the baseline.
Pick: Raonic in 2
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I cannot recall a worse quality match between these 2. Both below par.
It looks miserable hot out there!
I don’t know what match you are watching. The ESPN commies would disagree with you. There have been some great rallies and good shot making in this match.
Rafa was not far off that 1st set!! Nole’s not out of the woods at all…
Nole pressing Rafa’s serve. deuce. Rafa serves: Nole slips and can’t get there. Oof. ad in. looked bad. deuce. Rafa serves. ad in. and …easy volley Rafa. 1-1.
I am proud of Rafa for fighting to hold serve. Good for him!
War of attrition.
Rafa has shown some real mental strength in this match.
He’s fighting all the way. That’s all I can ask.
It was always going to be a gruelling match. Luckily for Rafa the long multiple deuce game and ND’s quick serice hold was followed by the respite of s change of ends sit down.
Rafa is battling in every service game now. This is the pressure that Novak puts on him.
Nole’s face is beet red. Having trouble with the toss into the sun on that side. Serving ahead this set, he holds to 2-1.
Yeah, Nny. Nole doing his best to make holding serve an act of God.
Rafa serves. 0-15. Serves 15-15. Serves 30-15. Serves 40-15. serves. 40-30. serves. Rafa misses at net. deuce. Rafa serves, ad in. Rafa serves. Ruthless bhtdl Nole. deuce. Rafa serves. Ad IN. Serves and forehand winner Nole. deuce. Rafa was supposed to have an easy hold here, I thought. serves. second serve. long fh Nole. Ad IN. Rafa serves. second serve. Wide FH Nole. Finally – Rafa holds.
I wish that Rafa could put some pressure on novak’s serve.
They just posted winners to he’s. Both guys very close with more UE’s than winners.
Nole serves 15-0. ace 30-0. serves 30-15. serves. FH wide Rafa. 40-15. Serves. second serve. Rafa hits it long. Easy hold for Nole. 3-2.
I meant winners to UE’s, not he’s!
There was so much hesitation in that inside out forehand rafa hit…. no wonder it hit the net…
GSM!
Rafa gave it his all and that’s it.
rafa is fighting big time!!!
subpar djokovic is still too much for nadal. nadal should be happy with the tournament and hope for any future improvements if possible at all.
Don’t they have oxygen pods in IW?
Nadal’s forehand can be WAY MORE devastating than this.. was not even close to the best level today..
Novak was sloppy but what was the reason? I would attribute that to two factors:
1. Djokovic just not feeling the ball that well today
2. He was just thrown out of his comfort zone by Rafa.
Elaboration on point no.2: there have always been lots of mini-battles dictating the outcome of their matches and they try to come up with new winning patterns and overcome their weaknesses. For example, today, rafa came up with some serving patterns which made djokovic really uncomfortable.
Besides, the forehand on Nadal’s topspin in these conditions (it was extraodinarily hot today) was making it tough for Novak to control the ball. He said the same in his interview and talked about making an adjustment in set 2 !He also commented on the ‘new things’ both of them did in comparison to their last match…
These Nadal-Djo matches involve lots of tactics… it is a pity some Fed fans try to take the shine off it by saying they are all about running and defending and BLA BLA BLA…
These minor match adjustments are common to the game of tennis generally, and especially so with the top guys. “Fed fans” criticise them for the crux of the kind of game that represents. Changing serving patterns for instance might help for a set. But if you’re giving Novak the same looks during rallies, it’s not going to work for long. He’s too good a returner not to be able to read your serves as the match wears on and Nadal anyway isn’t a great server.
The problem is, their styles are so fundamentally similar that prima facie it’s not exciting to watch at all and more importantly, it becomes a question of who’s hitting the ball better and looks faster out there.
Contrast that with Fed who may not be hitting his groundstrokes as well as Novak but will, in most cases, still give him more trouble because he will never give him the same look twice and has way too many tricks up his sleeve. That makes for a more interesting match-up even if on courts this slow (my god, the net clearance) Novak is the clear favourite.
I agree with Fedfan here to a certain extent, ie Rafa and Novak play too similarly, mostly from the baseline. I was a bit disappointed that Rafa didnt move up to the net more frequently, preferring to rally with Novak all day, when Rafa himself is/was good at the net when he got there.
Rafa vs Fed, at least there’s contrast of styles. To me, the Raonic vs Goffin SF was more interesting due to contrast of styles.
Rafa should vary the way he hits his shots, ie hitting more DTL shots be they FH or BH; he’s hitting his FH CC too frequently that Novak could expect it all the time.
Rafa might be more competitive in this match but Novak clearly was not at his usual high level of Doha or AO. Had Novak played that way, I doubt the first set would even go to a tiebreak. Well, I can hope that going forward Novak will be playing more like his level here at IW rather than his level of Doha/AO. He’s not going to sustain his 2015 level I hope, if not it will be nightmare for everyone else in the tour!
Rafa is improving, at least he’s able to fight his way through esp vs Zverev, from 2-5 to 5-5. However, he’s still dropping serves after breaking serves! Also, he’s terrible in TBs, almost losing all of them! His level is still up and down during a match, couldnt sustain a good level for long, thus has to fight so hard to win. Hopefully, he will improve in time when the clay season arrives.
@ Lucky
A sane analysis from you as always. Rafa’s TB record has deteriorated drastically. in the past he was able to use the TB to win sets/matches he was on the brink of losing. Now it is more likely to signal the end of the set or match.
Vamos Rafa – no matter what! Keep believing in yourself, Rafa! ?
Nadal will take tons of positives from this match…He will just practice harder and it will be a little different this time. This week has been fabulous for him.
I do have observations to share but will do so in a while. Rafa’s finally showing good improvement…
I can live with this loss because Rafa was competitive. He came so close in that first set, He even had a set point. He fought in that TB, but Novak was just that much more confident and managed to do what he had to and win the TB.
I thought that Novak played better in the second set. In fact, I thought that the patterns reverted back to how they have been since Rafa has struggled and been in a slump. Rafa did change up his serving patterns. I thought Rafa was hitting his forehand better in that first set. But it’s still not consistent enough to beat Novak. Also, he missed opportunities to go DTL.
I just think that Novak was able to wear Rafa down in the second set. He put so much pressure on him to hold his serve every time. I also think that Novak was dictating the points more in the second set,
Novak definitely wasn’t at his best in the first set. Rafa had a real chance to take a set off him. So close.
Rafa will take good things out of this tournament for sure. His best result so far. He now can measure his progress after playing Novak. He will know what more has to be done.
Solid assessment of the match… agreed!
That’s how I saw it too. It was great to see Rafa fight like that. Bodes well for an exciting season!
1st set point by point:
http://www.flashscore.com/match/Kle9Te1k/#point-by-point;1
2nd set point by point: http://www.flashscore.com/match/Kle9Te1k/#point-by-point;2
Match with 1st & 2nd set stats breakdown from BNP Indian Wells:
http://www.bnpparibasopen.com/en/scores/match-stats?mid=MS002
I reckon Rafa at long last is well on his way to losing his fear of Novak. That was the most competitve he’s been in their encounters for a long time. Plenty of positives to take from today. A few more mactches like that against high calibre players are what are needed.
onwards and upwards
Vamos Rafa.
Rafa’s level is raising while Novak’ level has somewhat dropped. If the trend continues Rafa will come close to beating Nole soon enough and then it will solely be on Rafa’s racquet whether he wins or loses…I’ve seen lots of improvements in Rafa’s game…he is getting there…
I am proud of Rafa! I appreciate his aggression and improvements on serve…I guess Rafa never really believed he would beat Novak this time which made it harder on Rafa…but he had set point and it was really close to make it a three setter…too bad it did not work this time…But I am really encouraged with how Rafa progressed in this tourney…hope he keeps up a good work…
Vamos Rafa! We believe in you with all our hearts!
Rafa’s level is raising while Novak’ level has somewhat dropped. If the trend continues Rafa will come close to beating Nole soon enough and then it will solely be on Rafa’s racquet whether he wins or loses…I’ve seen lots of improvements in Rafa’s game…he is getting there…
I am proud of Rafa! I appreciate his aggression and improvements on serve…I guess Rafa never really believed he would beat Novak this time which made it harder on Rafa…but he had set point and it was really close to make it a three setter…too bad it did not work this time…But I am really encouraged with how Rafa progressed in this tourney…hope he keeps up a good work…
Vamos Rafa! We believe in you!