A blockbuster semifinal showdown between Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal will be featured on Saturday in Indian Wells. That will be preceded in the stadium by Milos Raonic vs. David Goffin.
(1) Novak Djokovic vs. (4) Rafael Nadal
Djokovic and Nadal will be facing each other for the 48th time in their careers when they meet again in the semifinals of the BNP Paribas Open on Saturday afternoon. The World Tour Finals last fall gave Djokovic a chance to level the head-to-head series and that is exactly what he did with a 6-3, 6-3 semifinal rout of the Spaniard. Now it is Nadal’s turn to try for an even 24-24 record, as Djokovic took a slight lead by rolling 6-1, 6-2 in the Doha title match two months ago. These two rivals have squared off three times in Indian Wells, with Djokovic leading 2-1 after most recently getting the job done 4-6, 6-3, 6-2 in the 2011 title match.
The world No. 1 has been less than dominant since winning the Australian Open. He retired from a Dubai quarterfinal clash against Feliciano Lopez due to an eye infection and Kazakhstan’s Mikhail Kukushkin pushed the Serb to five sets in the Davis Cup opening round. Djokovic’s run in the desert includes a three-setter against Bjorn Fratangelo and straight-set defeats of Philipp Kohlschreiber, Feliciano Lopez, and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. The Frenchman forced a pair of tiebreakers on Friday but had no chance in the critical moments and lost 7-6(2), 7-6(2). Nadal booked his spot in the last four by taking out Gilles Muller, Fernando Verdasco, Alexander Zverev, and Kei Nishikori. Playing with a proverbial second life after surviving a match point against Zverev, the world No. 5 turned in his best performance of the event for a 6-4, 6-3 win over Nishikori. Conditions in the desert will suit Nadal better than those of their last two showdowns in London and Doha. But the bottom line is that Djokovic has Nadal’s number–five wins in a row, to be exact–under any circumstances at the moment.
Pick: Djokovic in 2
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(15) David Goffin vs. (12) Milos Raonic
If Raonic is this good after missing more than a month because of injury, just think how productive he could have been if he had been able to play throughout February. The Canadian had been sidelined since the Australian Open (lost to Andy Murray in the semifinals) by an adductor problem, but he is back in business in Indian Wells. So far this fortnight he has defeated Inigo Cervantes, Bernard Tomic, Tomas Berdych, and Gael Monfils without surrendering a single set. Raonic is now 13-1 for the season and he is aiming for his second title, having previously triumphed in Brisbane.
Up next for the 12th seed is a second career meeting with Goffin, who got the best of their Basel battle in 2014 via a 6-7(3), 6-3, 6-4 decision. The 18th-ranked Belgian has sustained momentum from a pair of Davis Cup singles wins over Croatia, but it has not been easy. He saved two match points in his Indian Wells opener against Frances Tiafoe and also needed three sets to oust Guido Pella and Stan Wawrinka before finally winning a straight-setter against Marin Cilic, whom he also beat in Davis Cup action. This looks like too tough of a test for Goffin, as the pressure will be on to hold serve just about every time he toes the line because Raonic appears to be borderline unbreakable at the moment. Monfils managed to accomplish the feat once, but once was nowhere near enough with the world No. 14 also playing big from the baseline.
Pick: Raonic in 2
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who ya got?
Djokovic in 2 even though Nadal looked good against Nishikori. Goffin has been playing so well my gut tells me he will take the match to 3 sets. I’ll go with my gut: Goffin in 3.
Goffin?
Knew it would go 3 sets. Now hopefully Djokovic beats Nadal and then takes Raonic to school. I’m Canadian but I can’t stand Raonic.
Why because there is actually a Canadian singles tennis player that can consistently play with the top players? I like Djokovic too but it would be nice to see Canada’s big man come through!
Good tournament for Canadians (well, except for Genie)
Likely Djokovic in 2
But more competitive no 6 3 sets all of them.
Nadal does not believe he can beat Djokovic. Pressed kinda reveals it.
sanju,
Rafa always says that each opponent is dangerous.
Having watched Djokobiv make heavy weather of disatching an erractic Tsonga he’ll need to raise his level significantly faced with a rejuvenated Rafa. It will not be the walkover many are predicting. This is a clear case of allowing hope to prevail over experience: I’m gambling on Rafa doing it in 3
successful tournament for Rafa no matter what, but there aint no way he is beating Djokovic
people have fallen into this trap before. Nadal plays 1 good match, Djokovic sleepwalks through a few easy matches, and people pick Nadal to win. It’s an overreaction. Djokovic will raise his level as necessary to meet the competition on any given day, as he always does.
I would NOT deescribe any of Djokovic’s performance since the AO as ‘sleepwalking through a few easy matches’. Au contraire. He has been reliant on his ability to save match points.
Yep, this is familiar territory: I pick against him and he wins – especially if it’s Rafa or Fed. I didn’t fall for it at WTF because it was the RR match Fed won. Couldn’t see Nole losing the final. This is a semi – I don’t know.
But it’s going to be an oven. They are playing second match. Dry hot – not like BA or Rio hot. And windy. Voted Rafa in 3!
Great match – Vika and Karolina!
I have to agree with Ricky here. It is a familiar pattern that we have seen all too often and I am not going to fall into the same trap again.
I don’t know that Novak has exactly been sleepwalking through his matches, though. He hasn’t looked great, but he always brings his best when it counts in the latter stages of tournaments.
Also, Novak has so much confidence when he plays Rafa now. He’s had such dominant victories against him recently.
I do think the conditions will be good for Rafa, but it’s all about belief. Does Rafa think he can beat Novak at this point in time? Can he change the dynamic in their matches and use different tactics?
I just think it’s too soon to expect Rafa to beat Novak. Rafa needs more good tournaments like this one. He needs to establish some real consistency with his game. I think it’s going to take more time and some continued good results against quality opponents to rebuild Rafa’s shattered confidence. This slump has been a prolonged one and things don’t suddenly and magically turn around.
I am hoping for a competitive match. That would be progress.
@NNY
**Novak has so much confidence when he plays Rafa now**
I’m sure his team have warned him of that danger and taken it into account when planning his game strategy (as they would’ve done for the Tsonga match). But you can’t get away from the fact Tsonga managed to break Djokovic at several key moments including causing him to falter when he had his first chance to serve out the match.
I agree Rafa is still work in progress but there’s no harm in hoping for a miracle.
? ? ? ? ?
I agree. it is just my opinion but sometimes their matches are becoming so monotonous, predictable and may be boring. Rafa fed matches were fun to watch. but
this is just my opinion
Djoker-Rafa has been good in the past. It just isn’t anymore.
Yeah they used to be amazing like their AUS open final in 2012 and matches like that. Now Rafa just doesn’t have answer against Nole it seems. I’m hoping he wins but it doesn’t seem likely.
Ricky (AT 4:15 AM),
—people have fallen into this trap before…—
===
.
The problem for gamblers.
the surface/conditions still favor Djokovic. they are just LESS BAD for Rafa than in London or Doha.
djokovic always raises his level dramatically when playing pocahontas. have no doubts.
When David meets Goliath is when the Goffin bandwagon grinds to a halt.
Raonic in 2
yup
Wish I could disagree but I can’t find a good argument. Raonic in 2.
Sorry, I forgot to make a prediction for the other semifinal match. I think this is where Goffin’s run ends. Raonic is just looking too good right now. Raonic for the win in 2 sets.
Novak’s goal is not only to beat Rafa, he will do his all to try to humiliate Rafa, to kill his building confidence hoping it would bring Rafa back to his mental doubts again…I hope Rafa does not let it happen…
Rafa needs to play with aggression and anger…his “calm” comes with hitting winners and going forward and going for his shots! His “calm” will come with his never give up attitude…
Go Rafa, enjoy the heat and bring your fabulous shots to life!
Vamos Rafa!
Definitely can’t wait for both matches but I do have a feeling both might be one sided.
As per usual… Note will raise his game. Straight sets to him and Milos.
Nole in three and Raonic in two
Rafa looked the best yet vs Nishikori, but I’m taking Joker in 2….and Milos in straight as well.
Conditions A LOT more favorable for Rafa in comparison to the Doha final…
It is true that it is kind of a trap…Djokovic WILL raise his level and Rafa’s level may dip!
This will be more competitive though…won’t be too easy for Djokovic like their previous two meetings..
The serve-return dynamic remains the biggest concern.
Also, depends on how Rafa approaches this match tactically… The use of good backhand slices can serve him really well so I hope he tries that.
He WILL start the match returning close to the baseline and will continue to do so… If the match keeps getting away from his hands then he might step back a bit to experiment.
3-0 4-1 type starts are too common in Nadal Djokovic BO3 matches and I hope it is different this time…so annoying it is.
Djokovic changes his game Vs Nadal…plays a lot more aggressively! Reduces net clearance , hits harder and of course flattens out shots a lot more…
Rafa MUST take risks … no use holding back
Yup… Rafa MUST be aggressive!
vamosrafa,
I think you make some good points. Novak is so confident against Rafa now. He knows what has to be done and is able to execute his game plan.
Rafa has to make sure that he doesn’t lose the match before he gets on the court. There is no reason for nerves. He wasn’t expected to get this far, so he should just go for his shots. Don’t hold back. At least he can go down fighting.
Milos in two.
Another game for Milosh!!!!
Well well well. Where have you been hiding?
Business trip. Duty calls.
Eye of the Hawk ?
Should I put $1k on dojokovic to win $140?
No
Keep calm, stay focused, be confident and show your fighting spirit, Rafa!
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cd7VMvXWEAA2N9V.jpg
I think djokovic, but Rafa can beat him if he plays like today. Because Nishikori tried all where Rafa was failing now a days, but he tackled it nicely.
rafa always looks good till he meets djokovic. just ask nadline.
The real Joe Strummer wasn’t a troll.
Goffin wins the second set!
??? Goffin gets a set!!
wont get another one!
He won’t. But I sure like his pluck!
not sure what that means, but agreed
Spirit and courage – you’re safe agreeing 😉
This IS a turn up for the books!!