It will be a surprising quarterfinal matchup at the Mutua Madrid Open when Taylor Fritz and Francisco Cerundolo collide on Wednesday. Fritz has never done anything particularly notable on clay, while the 2024 campaign had been a massive disappointment for Cerundolo prior to this fortnight.
Nonetheless, both players have been outstanding so far in Madrid.
Fritz has not dropped a single set, earning a spot in the last eight with wins over Luciano Darderi, Sebastian Baez, and Hubert Hurkacz. Darderi and Baez are clay-court specialists; Hurkacz won the Estoril title earlier this spring and is especially dangerous at high altitude in Madrid. Although it’s not entirely expected, clay-court success for Fritz has not come entirely out of nowhere. He finished runner-up in Munich to Jan-Lennard Struff earlier this spring.
Cerundolo lost six of his first eight matches in 2024, but he has turned things around nicely in recent weeks. The world No. 22 has won at least one match in seven of his last eight tournaments, including three in Madrid against Fabian Marozsan, Tommy Paul, and Alexander Zverev. Cerundolo was especially impressive against Zverev on Tuesday, upsetting the fifth-ranked German in convincing 6-3, 6-4 fashion.
The result is what will be just the second head-to-head meeting between Fritz and Cerundolo. Their only previous encounter also came on clay at last year’s French Open, where the Argentine scored a 3-6, 6-3, 6-4, 7-5 victory. However, conditions in Paris are more favorable for Cerundolo and Fritz was coming off an absolute circus of a match against Arthur Rinderknech that drew the ire of the French crowd.
With Fritz dominant so far in Madrid and playing in faster conditions, he should have the upper hand this time around.
Pick: Fritz in 3
WWW?
Fritz might have a slight edge on paper but it probably balances out on clay regardless of altitude. Cerundolo is a bigger test for Fritz than Hurkacz.
Entertaining match. Cerundolo was a bit off-kilter, but credit to Fritz for making him uncomfortable and keeping the pressure on.
Cerundolo had 30:30 a few times in the 3rd and think he may have had a break point or two also, so he had his opportunities to win it. Not much in it in the end.
If Cerundolo improves his work ethic, he can increase his performance by another 30-40%. It seems he relies a bit too much on his ability and the luck of how he feels on the day, hence the 6-1 drubbing in the first set. That will only get you so far, you have to work on a clay court.
Cerundolo with Khachanov, Medvedev or De Minaur’s work ethic—that’s a French Open contender right there.