Felix Auger-Aliassime is the only unseeded player other than Rafael Nadal left in the Madrid draw and he will face Casper Ruud on Tuesday. Daniil Medvedev and Casper Ruud are also part of a full fourth-round schedule.
(3) Daniil Medvedev vs. (17) Alexander Bublik
Medvedev and Bublik will be going head-to-head for the seventh time in their careers (sixth time on the main tour) when they battle for a quarterfinal spot at the Mutua Madrid Open on Tuesday. All six of their previous encounters have gone Medvedev’s way and he is 13-1 in total sets lifetime against Bublik. They have faced each other only once on clay, when the Russia rolled 6-3, 6-3, 7-5 in round one of the 2021 French Open.
There is no reason to think anything will be different in this one. Bublik has done well to beat Roberto Carballes Baena and Ben Shelton so far this fortnight, but even in quick conditions he still dislikes clay–even more than Medvedev, it should be noted. Medvedev may not be great on this surface, either, but he won the Rome title last year and is a former Roland Garros quarterfinalist (2021). So far in Madrid the world No. 4 has scraped past Matteo Arnaldi and Sebastian Korda in three sets–two very good clay-court victories. An 11:00 am start time by his own admission also doesn’t help Bublik. Count on Medvedev cruising into the quarters.
Pick: Medvedev in 2
Felix Auger-Aliassime vs. (5) Casper Ruud
As he often does during the clay-court swing, Ruud is playing the best tennis of his career. The two-time French Open runner-up played back-to-back finals against Stefanos Tsitsipas in Monte-Carlo (lost) and Barcelona (won), and he now finds himself in the Madrid fourth round following straight-set routs of Miomir Kecmanovic and Cameron Norrie. Ruud’s record stands at a sparkling 30-7 for the season.
Up next for the sixth-ranked Norwegian is Auger-Aliassime, who trails the head-to-head series 4-2 overall and 3-1 at the ATP level. Their most recent clay-court encounter came at this same Madrid event in 2021, when Ruud dominated 6-1, 6-4. Considering Auger-Aliassime’s struggles, it’s hard to see him turning the tide. The 35th-ranked Canadian is still just 14-10 for his 2024 campaign after taking out Yoshihito Nishioka, Adrian Mannarino, and Jakub Mensik (the latter via second-set retirement). Given Ruud’s current hot streak and the surface, this should be one-way traffic.
Pick: Ruud in 2
WWW?
Yeah I had Fritz winning this. No time to get the picks done today.
Struff can beat Alcaraz.
Khachanov in 3
Fritz in 3
Struff in 3
Rublev or Griekspoor in 3 (Griek should’ve done better there)
Zverev in 3, maybe 2 (both are in great form)
Bublik should’ve done better.
It just shows how difficult Medvedev is as a matchup for a lot of players.
Zverev Cerundolo should be high quality.
Ruud in 3
You have to be careful of your biases. On clay Cerundolo will win 80% of the time in this match up when they are both playing well.
I think Alcaraz’s form might be questionable, and I’m not convinced of Sinner’s clay court prowess, especially against a battle-hardened Khachanov.
If Sinner and Alcaraz weren’t scheduled at the same time they both lose. Well played ATP.
While Ruud is one of the best clay courters im not convinced he’s that good (like a Cerundolo) that he will beat an in-form FAA while fatigued so it would not surprise me if FAA wins this, even in straight.
He’s a solid clay courter but I dont think he’s an authentic clay courter like a Tsitsipas or Cerundolo.
Cerundolo is the type of player that could turn up out of nowhere and win the French Open.