Expert picks are back for the French Open semifinal showdown between No. 1 seed Carlos Alcaraz and two-time champion Novak Djokovic on Friday. A three-team panel previews the showdown and makes its predictions.
Ricky Dimon: There simply haven’t been enough Alcaraz vs. Djokovic matches since the Spaniard emerged on tour a few years ago. Well, the French Open draw (and Daniil Medvedev by winning the Rome Masters and becoming No. 2) solved that problem. Alcaraz and Djokovic are clearly the two best players in the world right now, but they will collide in the semifinals instead of the final.
Arguments can be made for both men. It’s a Grand Slam, and in such a situation you can never count out Djokovic. However, Alcaraz has been the best player on tour this whole year (since he missed the Australian Open, at least) and he looked superior to Djokovic–with room to spare–in their respective quarterfinal matches. Again, you can’t feel great about picking Djokovic to lose any Grand Slam match…except against Alcaraz. This guy is just different. It’s Alcaraz’s title to lose–and I don’t think he will. Alcaraz in 4: 6-4, 6-7(5), 6-3, 6-4.
Cheryl Murray: This is the match. The one everyone has been waiting for. There has been much speculation about what a best-of-five match between Djokovic and Alcaraz would be like. There are plenty of considerations–plenty of reasons to think Djokovic is going to pull out the win and just as many to think it’s going to be Alcaraz. First, there’s experience; nobody has as much big-match experience as Djokovic; tick a box for Djokovic. Then there’s form. The Serb hasn’t been at his best since the Australian Open, but Alcaraz has been outstanding. Point to the Spaniard.
Then there’s their only previous match–a barnburner of an encounter in Madrid last year. Alcaraz won that one–just barely. But that was a slightly lesser version of Alcaraz prior to his Grand Slam breakthrough at the U.S. Open. Check for Alcaraz. Then again, there is nothing trickier than dispatching Djokovic in a best-of-five encounter. It…just doesn’t happen very often–except for the traditional “Rafael Nadal beats Djokovic at Roland Garros” storyline. Another hash mark for he Serb. This one has the makings of the match of the year so far. Grab your popcorn. Alcaraz in 5: 6-4, 5-7, 7-6(4), 6-7(2), 6-4.
Pete Ziebron (Tennis Acumen): It’s the absolute steely determination of Djokovic vs. the free-swinging, seemingly “can’t miss” Alcaraz! While many will consider this semifinal to be the de facto final, the victor must then win one more match to hoist La Coupe des Mosquetaires. Despite dropping only one set en route to the semis, Djokovic has labored on court–being extended to five tiebreakers in previous rounds. Alcaraz, meanwhile, declared that he felt invincible on court at times during his opening round win over a qualifier. The Spaniard then lost the second set in his next match against world No. 112 Taro Daniel. The course was immediately corrected, though, as Alcaraz won 66 of the next 92 games played while steamrolling into the semifinal.
At 36 years old, Djokovic knows his time is limited to continue to achieve all he set out to do in his career. Plus Nadal did not appear in the draw this time. These two factors will elevate the Serb to the win, as it will be a monumental relief to not have to face Nadal at Roland Garros in an attempt to win the title. Djokovic in 4: 6-4, 7-5, 3-6, 6-4.
WHO YA GOT?
Djokovic in 5 : his experience will help him prevail🙏
Heart says Novak in 4. Head says Alcaraz in 5.
Alcaraz in 3. He will have a flat spot, but that will result in closer set, like 7-5, or a tie-break. But he is clearly at another level than everyone, even Djokovic. Djokovic has won his encounters with nobody in the top 10, but hasn’t dominated them. Looked very beatable at moments. Alcaraz has dominated his opponents including Musseti and Tsitsipas. I think there is no mystery and he will dominate Djokovic just like it seems like based on how they are both playing.
Which of Alcakaz’s opponents was from top 10 except Tsitsipas (with miserable one-handed backhand)? Musseti also plays one-handed backhand.
I think chances are 50-50.
Tsitsipas is top ten obviously. And Musettialtho not top ten, beat Djokovic recently with his miserable backhand, but was still no match at all for Alcaraz. Khachanov outplayed Djokovic in the first set. After he lost the second he faded more so than Djokovic upping his game. Djokovic did up his game but it’s much easier to up your game when your opponents game goes off. Khachanov kind of made him look good after set 2. That won’t happen with Alcaraz. Djokovic, if he plays way better than he has so far this tournament, may win one set.
It is very tempting to predict Alcaraz will an the semi final: but beating Djokovic is extremely difficult on any type of court: Djokovic will bring extra energy, determination & motivation to this match. Beating Tsitipas is not enough to convince me Alcaraz can beat Djokovic on this Court 🙏
He already beat him on clay before. No guarantee it will happen again, but that should be enough evidence that it can happen.
Djokovic will win with his unique combination of consistency and penetrating power. Alcaraz needs more experience and patience. Alcaraz is very flashy but I don’t think he can match the steady Djokovic.
Djokovic wins in 4
May the Angles be with Djokovic
Why does 1 play 3 and 2 plays 4 stupid should be 1-4. 2-3 final is going too be terrible
Dreaming. All the signs are there that it won’t even be close – and it won’t be.
You’ll see Djokovic age before your eyes this match. Alcaraz beats him in almost every department.
no he aint beating joker in every dept we shall see and it shall be done
What dept does djoker have over Alcaraz?
Serve: Alcaraz
Power: Alcaraz
Speed: Alcaraz
Diversity: Alcaraz
Touch: Alcaraz
Precision: Alcaraz
Mental: Djokovic
Experience: Djokovic
Also I’d say precision is very even between the both
djokovic. mental toughness.
clown.
clown
If it goes to 5 sets I like Nole’s chances.
Does anyone remember when was the last time Nole lost a five setter in a grand slam?
ag Thiem at RG semifinals in 2019.
ah yes I remember now. A shame Dom is no longer at that level.
Charlie in 4
Carlos is going to bring a lot of pressure into Djokovic backhand. Djokovic will be very aggressive returning. Will Djokovic be able to keep the level? He will call the psysio a couple of times but Alcaraz will prevail in 4 sets.
of course djoker could keep up hes been there done that!
Some of you guys are so funny. Last year many were hoping that Alcaraz and Rafa would meet and expected a showdown where Carlos would prevail. Now one year later many are looking forward to the showdown with Nole and Alcaraz but now expect Nole to be the one coming out on top, now tell me how does this compute?
I’m just hoping for a great game!
do you still need help with math? i can explain.