French Open SF preview and prediction: Alcaraz vs. Djokovic

Carlos Alcaraz
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The eye test suggests that Carlos Alcaraz vs. Novak Djokovic should be the French Open final, but the current ATP rankings allowed the draw ceremony to have other ideas. Alcaraz and Djokovic landed in the same half of the bracket and almost two weeks later their highly anticipated semifinal showdown has become a reality.

Since Rafael Nadal’s withdrawal from the tournament, Alcaraz and Djokovic have been far and away the top two title favorites. And nothing about either player’s performance so far this fortnight has changed that.

Faced with a difficult draw in the fourth round and quarterfinals, Alcaraz has been especially impressive. After getting past Flavio Cobolli, Taro Daniel, and Denis Shapovalov, the 20-year-old destroyed both Lorenzo Musetti and Stefanos Tsitsipas. Only Daniel has managed to take a set off Alcaraz.

Djokovic also dropped only one set on his way to the semis while disposing of Aleksandar Kovacevic, Marton Fucsovics, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, Juan Pablo Varillas, and Karen Khachanov. Tuesday’s quarterfinal clash against Khachanov was tense for two sets, as the Russian took the first and pushed the second to a tiebreaker before falling 4-6, 7-6(0), 6-2, 6-4.


The end result is what will be just a second-ever meeting between Alcaraz and Djokovic. They previously faced each other in the semifinals of the 2022 Madrid Masters, where the Spaniard prevailed 6-7(5), 7-5, 7-6(5) on his way to the title.

Friday’s matchup has a chance to be every bit as good. Both players should be confident, as Alcaraz is 35-3 this season and since the Australian Open (which he missed due to injury) has been the best player on tour–including throughout this French Open. Djokovic is obviously a dominant force in Grand Slams, with 22 such titles–including two at Roland Garros.

Of course, Alcaraz won the last major in which he participated (2022 U.S. Open) so it’s hard to say that Djokovic’s experience at the business end of slams will be a real factor on Friday. The bottom line is that the 36-year-old Serb will have to raise his level to match and surpass that of his opponent if he wants to reach the final and ultimately win a record-setting 23rd major title. Djokovic has struggled at times in various matches this fortnight and has often resorted to drop-shots to bail himself out of sticky situations. Drop-shots, of course, are not at all the recipe for success against the best mover on tour in Alcaraz.

If the top seed continues to play like he did against Tsitsipas, he isn’t going to lose in Paris–not even to Djokovic.

Pick: Alcaraz in 4

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12 Comments on French Open SF preview and prediction: Alcaraz vs. Djokovic

  1. Truth is Alcaraz was completely unprepared to play at the level and intensity of the big 3 at a slam.He said before he was very confident because he was thinking it was going to be like playing a masters.
    He will know better for next time.

    • An interesting statistic — showing that Alcaraz came into this particularly inexperienced at Best of 5.

      Bo5 matches played by the end of the Grand Slam following their 20th birthday:
      Djokovic – 45 (10 Davis Cup)
      Nadal – 55 (6 Davis Cup)
      Alcaraz – 37

  2. There is a new clay sheriff in town 👉 Novak Djokovic ❤❤❤💪, with Rafa injured N. Djokovic is the king of clay courts he is definitely going to win another Roland Garros on Sunday 🏆.

    I knew he would win but didn’t know he would make it look easy especially in the 3rd and 4th set.

    Congrats Novak!!!💯

  3. I really enjoy watching Rudd play…..,,,,so calm amd composed…………..and he’s got game too, just needs to work on his serves dem! 😩

      • That’s right Amy, Rafa crushed him in 3 sets last year in the French Open finals and Alcaraz defeated him in US Open finals in 4 sets.

        • Well that was last year 🤪 he has improved immensely in my view!! At least he’s not getting cramps!

          He’s won first set, hopefully he’s closer to the final again!!

  4. Well Amy, he’s gotta start addressing it at some point 🤣

    And besides, the way Zverev is serving there, Novak is going to make a meal out of him!! He is yet to hold serve until now!!

  5. Novak has an unparalleled ability to bring his best for the biggest matches and at the most crucial moments. He went into machine mode today, and Carlos admitted that the pressure of the moment got to him and probably contributed to his cramping. But Djokovic has been doing this to others for a long time, particularly at slams.

    Let’s hope for a great final; both semis were a bit on the disappointing side.

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