French Open QF preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Nishikori

The first nine days of the French Open could not gave gone any better for Rafael Nadal. He has faced only one seeded opponent (David Goffin) and has mostly dominated through four rounds, dropping just one set to Goffin along the way. Now he faces a player (Kei Nishikori) who is coming off consecutive five-setters and will have no days of rest after finishing off Benoit Paire 6-2, 6-7(8), 6-2, 6-7(8), 7-5 on Monday.

Nishikori also did extremely well to overcome a 4-0 fifth-set deficit against Laslo Djere in the the third round, but his reward for reaching the quarterfinals is unlikely to include more than a lot of ranking points and prize money. It is almost impossible to see him parlaying it into a semifinal berth.

In addition to obvious fatigue, the world No. 7 from Japan–who has never held up particularly well from a physical standpoint–is 2-10 lifetime against Nadal (0-4 on clay, 0-1 at Roland Garros). They most recently faced each other last spring in Monte-Carlo, where the Spaniard cruised 6-3, 6-2 to take the title.

Nadal is going for his 12th title at this tournament and his bid is off to a thoroughly routine start. The second seed preceded his defeat of Goffin by hammering qualifiers Yannick Hanfmann and Yannick Maden, and his fourth-rounder on Sunday resulted in a 6-2, 6-3, 6-3 victory over Juan Ignacio Londero.

“What happened here (11 titles)…something really unbelievable,” Nadal assured. “I don’t know what can happen in the future or not. I am trying my best to compete well and to give a chance to be where I am today. Now (I’m) gonna have tough match against Kei. So that’s my goal now. But of course, yeah, 11 here already is something really unbelievable.”

It may be too early to start thinking about No. 12, but even Nadal should be willing to look past Tuesday in anticipation of the semifinals–likely against Roger Federer. This one is going to be a rout.

Pick: Nadal in 3 losing 5-7 games

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