French Open QF preview and prediction: Federer vs. Wawrinka

Roger Federer took the easy way. Stan Wawrinka chose the scenic route.

Whatever the case, the two Swiss veterans will be facing each other for the 26th time in their careers when they renew their friendly–and lopsided–rivalry in the French Open quarterfinals on Tuesday. Federer is completely dominating the head-to-head series 22-3, a record that includes a current six-match winning streak and a 20-2 mark in their last 22. Perhaps the only good news for Wawrinka is that one of his victories has come at Roland Garros, where he prevailed 6-4, 6-3, 7-6(4) in the quarterfinals on his way to the title. All three of them have come on clay.

Of course, Federer can also harp on his two French Open defeats of his countryman, both in straight sets (in 2009 and 2011). They most recently collided earlier this season in Indian Wells, where the 37-year-old cruised 6-3, 6-4.

Federer is a considerable favorite once again, and not just because he registers 25 spots ahead of Wawrinka at No. 3 in the rankings. Moreover, the underdog is coming off a five-hour and eight-minute battle with Stefanos Tsitsipas on Sunday afternoon, taking it 7-6(6), 5-7, 6-4, 3-6, 8-6.

“To play Roger in [the quarterfinals], it’s something amazing for me,” Wawrinka assured.  “I’m really happy…. He’s still playing so well. He’s the best player to ever play this sport. So it’s going to be a big challenge. I [haven’t beaten] him many times in all my career, but I did once here so I still do remember that time and was a special day for me.

“It’s gonna be a big challenge; will need to recover from today’s match. It was still a long match. I’m getting old, and older and older, so it is not going to be help to be ready for Tuesday. But again, I love that kind of challenge and I’m going to try to do my best to play my best tennis.”

When it was pointed out to him that Federer is even older, Wawrinka quipped, “But he’s quite better than me, also.”

Federer has certainly been more efficient this fortnight. While Wawrinka has spent 12 hours and 27 minutes on court (also a four-setter with Jozef Kovalik and three consecutive tiebreakers against Grigor Dimitrov), the 20-time major champion required only seven hours and 10 minutes through four rounds. He did so by erasing Lorenzo Sonego, Oscar Otte, Casper Ruud, and Leonardo Mayer.

That does not mean Federer will be taking anything for granted in this one.

“On clay, this is when it’s been most tough for me against him,” the third seed said of Wawrinka. “If I think back at [the 2014 Monte-Carlo final], French Open here in ’15, and then also he beat me in [Monte-Carlo in 2009]. So on clay it’s been definitely more dangerous than on any other surface for me against him.

“Look, it always starts by saying I’m just happy for the guy that he’s back after his knee problems. They were severe, and that’s why I think he’s really happy he got sort of a second life on tour, because I think for a while there he wasn’t sure if he was ever going to come back again. It’s nice to see him pain-free and playing well. I hope he’s not at the level of ’15…. Because then he was crushing the ball. It was unbelievable.”

Wawrinka, of course, is not all the way back to his level that carried him to three Grand Slam triumphs. And even if he was, Federer’s current form combined with the five-set marathon against Tsitsipas would make this a brutally tough task.

Pick: Federer in 4

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16 Comments on French Open QF preview and prediction: Federer vs. Wawrinka

  1. It seems Rafa has not broken Fed in his last 31 service games. That is one heck of a statistic, especially for a returner of the caliber of Rafa :O

      • Rafa IS a good returner but he usually does not go for return winners. His usual objective is to get a forehand and win the rally with that shot. Because, as you say, he’s awesome from the baseline. Or the net. Or pretty much anywhere on the court for that matter.

        • Rafa usually go for return winners imo, by hitting hard his returns. He rarely block back the returns. Rafa is good at returning big serves hence his good H2H vs big servers – Karlovic, Isner, Raonic for examples.

          Rafa doesn’t like playing against big servers though, so people thought he fares badly against them, but truth is, he’s able to break their serves! Fed for example, had to go to TBs with these big servers so often, so Fed basically won because of his own serves (winning TBs), not because he’s returning well.

        • It’s because he stands so far back that’s why he’s returning great, hence he’s a good returner of serves! He’s one of the best if not the best in breaking serves! You don’t need to stand close to the baseline to return serves to be called a good returner of serves!

          Look at Andy Murray, he too stand way back when returning serves, but once he read the serve, he would move quickly forward. Murray is one of the best in returning serves!

          • Wrong. Nadal breaks serve so often because he is great from the baseline, especially on clay. He stands so far back because he cannot do a decent job returning standing closer. Other things equal, it’s better to take the ball earlier. You have a lot more angles and give the serve a lot less time.

          • Joe, Rafa isn’t bad returning serves on HCs and grass too! Remember USO2017 final? He’s able to handle Anderson’s big serve in the final by standing way back to return serves.

            As I said, it doesn’t matter where you stand and what you do, it’s how you win the return points that matter! Nobody says you Must stand close to the baseline to return serves to be called a good returner of serves! It’s how much you win the return points that matters!

            Rafa is an unorthodox player, nobody plays or could play like him. Other players trying to copy his way of returning serves by standing way back behind the baseline failed because they’re not as quick as him!

        • I did not say Nadal is a GREAT returner. I said he’s a GOOD returner. Djokovic is a great returner, maybe Murray too. Federer is not a great returner for that matter – he’s a great SERVER and often underestimated because he’s a spot server, not a power server.

          Rafa’s return position works for him because he’s very quick at getting up to the baseline after he hits the return. He is very, very good at breaking serve, always among the tour leaders.

          • Agree Ramara.

            It depends what’s the definition of ‘great’ returner of serves. I mean, if Rafa is able to break serves to be one of the best in winning returning games, that means he’s doing something right! Who cares where he stands to return serves? Djoko, the great returner of serves, he too moves back well behind the baseline sometimes to handle big serves!

            Rafa is also not relying on winning TBs to win sets or matches. He’s able to break serves most of the times to win his matches. Rafa is just making full use of his gifted talent, that of acting or reacting fast using his gift of speed to return serves as best as he could. Others, like Djoko, uses his hand/eye coordination to do the job well in returning serves.

      • Ricky, if Rafa could break a lot, that means he has to be able to return his opponents serves a lot to stay in the point before breaking serves! If not, he will have to go to TBs often.

      • Rafa is a damn good returner. he has gotten better especially over recent years!!

        His BP conversion is a lot better than Fed who is supposed to be a great returner!!!

        Like someone said, it’s not where you stand that makes you a great returner, it’s the return points won! Rafa is very high up there in that regard! People for some reason are always looking to poke holes in Rafa’s abilities!! Why? I really can’t understand, when he is one of the most successful players of all time! Remember what Rafa’s H2H was against the whole field?! It was +ve against almost everybody, including Federer and Novak! How was that possible if he is just an ‘ok’ returner, he’s afraid of big servers, blah, blah, blah!!!!

        Honestly, sometimes I wonder which Rafa that people are talking about, if it’s the same one I know, sigh!!!

          • Well Ricky, even if you’re talking about a single shot, Rafa is also good at that, if not why he doesn’t always need to go to TBs to beat those big servers? Certainly that means he’s able to return their serves to get the point started and then breaks their serves to win the match(es). Unless you’re talking about one shot return winner, but how many players could do that? Not even Djoko could do that regularly.

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