French Open QF preview and prediction: Federer vs. Wawrinka

Roger Federer took the easy way. Stan Wawrinka chose the scenic route.

Whatever the case, the two Swiss veterans will be facing each other for the 26th time in their careers when they renew their friendly–and lopsided–rivalry in the French Open quarterfinals on Tuesday. Federer is completely dominating the head-to-head series 22-3, a record that includes a current six-match winning streak and a 20-2 mark in their last 22. Perhaps the only good news for Wawrinka is that one of his victories has come at Roland Garros, where he prevailed 6-4, 6-3, 7-6(4) in the quarterfinals on his way to the title. All three of them have come on clay.

Of course, Federer can also harp on his two French Open defeats of his countryman, both in straight sets (in 2009 and 2011). They most recently collided earlier this season in Indian Wells, where the 37-year-old cruised 6-3, 6-4.

Federer is a considerable favorite once again, and not just because he registers 25 spots ahead of Wawrinka at No. 3 in the rankings. Moreover, the underdog is coming off a five-hour and eight-minute battle with Stefanos Tsitsipas on Sunday afternoon, taking it 7-6(6), 5-7, 6-4, 3-6, 8-6.

“To play Roger in [the quarterfinals], it’s something amazing for me,” Wawrinka assured.  “I’m really happy…. He’s still playing so well. He’s the best player to ever play this sport. So it’s going to be a big challenge. I [haven’t beaten] him many times in all my career, but I did once here so I still do remember that time and was a special day for me.

“It’s gonna be a big challenge; will need to recover from today’s match. It was still a long match. I’m getting old, and older and older, so it is not going to be help to be ready for Tuesday. But again, I love that kind of challenge and I’m going to try to do my best to play my best tennis.”

When it was pointed out to him that Federer is even older, Wawrinka quipped, “But he’s quite better than me, also.”

Federer has certainly been more efficient this fortnight. While Wawrinka has spent 12 hours and 27 minutes on court (also a four-setter with Jozef Kovalik and three consecutive tiebreakers against Grigor Dimitrov), the 20-time major champion required only seven hours and 10 minutes through four rounds. He did so by erasing Lorenzo Sonego, Oscar Otte, Casper Ruud, and Leonardo Mayer.

That does not mean Federer will be taking anything for granted in this one.

“On clay, this is when it’s been most tough for me against him,” the third seed said of Wawrinka. “If I think back at [the 2014 Monte-Carlo final], French Open here in ’15, and then also he beat me in [Monte-Carlo in 2009]. So on clay it’s been definitely more dangerous than on any other surface for me against him.

“Look, it always starts by saying I’m just happy for the guy that he’s back after his knee problems. They were severe, and that’s why I think he’s really happy he got sort of a second life on tour, because I think for a while there he wasn’t sure if he was ever going to come back again. It’s nice to see him pain-free and playing well. I hope he’s not at the level of ’15…. Because then he was crushing the ball. It was unbelievable.”

Wawrinka, of course, is not all the way back to his level that carried him to three Grand Slam triumphs. And even if he was, Federer’s current form combined with the five-set marathon against Tsitsipas would make this a brutally tough task.

Pick: Federer in 4

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28 Comments on French Open QF preview and prediction: Federer vs. Wawrinka

  1. Fed fortunate to take that first set after missing so many break opportunities. He was the better player. However, I think Stan is hurt and a retirement may be on the cards.

  2. I think Fed needs to be broken at least once before he starts competiting genuinely. Its obvious he doesnt want to come across as overly competitive because of Stan’s physical issues.

    • Not at all, he’s looking in top shape. maybe in the 4th we will see some fatigue but Fed needs to make him work. the drop shot has been successful so far.

  3. By being wawrinka’s best mate for a set and a bit he let Wawrinka into it. Wawrinka was the one that took advantage of the situation.

  4. amy,

    It’s just a Fed fan hoping Stan is injured. Kevin is one of the nicest posters in this site, yet he incurred the wrath of said Fed fan for daring to think that Stan could win this match. For that bit of sacrilege he was called out for being a Rafa fan and not a Fed fan.

    Well it looks like Stan has made a match out of it. I thought Fed would win this in 3 or maybe 4 sets. But Stan has done well to even it up. I don’t know if fatigue might become an issue as the match goes on.

    • Hi nny!! ☺
      Yes I noticed the string of digs at Kevin! iE Not really a fedfan, ageist!!, sucking up to rafa fans, and so on. Was thinking of saying something!
      Hope Stan can make a match of this! ☺

  5. I’m feeling pretty good at the moment about my prediction of Stan in 4 or 5. Fed did well to get that first set despite failing to convert break points. But Fed’s ability to win this match depends at least partly on Stan’s tiredness from the previous match, and as of now I don’t see Stan effected enough from the previous match to make a big difference. Fed can obviously win this, but I’m feeling good about my prediction at this moment.

    • No hard feelings, Kevin. You know I’m just giving you a hard time, I hope. Of course Stan could have won that match. But Fed is not getting obliterated by Rafa in the SF. I have a feeling he’s going to win.

  6. Fed’s attitude from the outset wasnt what it needed to be. he needed to compete heaviliy from the beginning and take Wawrink’as legs away from him. Instead he chose to be his best caring mate.

  7. Fed coms out and plays completely different to the way he’s been playing because his good mate that just played a tough 5-setter is at the other end of the court. what an idiot.

  8. Kevin,

    You hold your head up high! You gave your opinion and reasons why. Everyone is entitled to their opinion. You have been so fair to both Rafa and Fed. I appreciate it.

    I went with the majority in thinking that Fed would get the win. I was not sure how Stan would be after that tough five setter with Tsitsipas. He looked like his old self in that match. But I though Fed was looking very good coming into this match.

    I respect your opinion because you back it up with good analysis and reasonable arguments. You weren’t off base because Stab has made a match of it. He may not win but has still acquitted himself well. It’s nice to see him playing well again after all this time.

    • NNY, you respected his opinion because he said

      (Personally, I don’t think it matters who wins this match because whoever wins is just going to be obliterated by Rafa in the SF. )

      Every other part of his post might have been balanced, but that’s what you wanted to hear.

      Anyway, Im done with this type of nonsense .

      Not such a balanced comment, is it?

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