During the heyday of their dominance, a Grand Slam semifinal between Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer would have been thought of as some sort of punishment inflicted by an unfair draw.
But it’s 2019 now, and any reinstallment of arguably the greatest rivalry in tennis history has to be treated as bonus. No matter that it will take place in the semifinals instead of a final. Given the current state of things in the men’s game, a Fedal semifinal feels just about right.
That will be the case when the two veterans square off for the 39th time in their careers at the French Open on Friday. Nadal leads the head-to-head series 23-15, including 13-2 on clay and 5-0 at Roland Garros. But it’s not all bad news for Federer; not even close. The 37-year-old has won five in a row at the Spaniard’s expense dating back to 2015, including in the 2017 Australian Open title match to go along with a trio of victories at Masters 1000s and one in Basel.
Virtual home-court advantage goes to Nadal this time around, even though the crowd will surely throw its support behind Federer. The 11-time French Open champion is an absolutely outrageous 91-2 lifetime at this tournament, losing only to Robin Soderling (2009) and Novak Djokovic (2015) before withdrawing prior to the third round in 2016. He has been up to his usual tricks this fortnight with routine wins over Yannick Hanfmann, Yannick Maden, David Goffin (in four sets), Juan Ignacio Londero, and Kei Nishikori.
Federer has also surrendered only a single set. The third-ranked Swiss’ disposed of Lorenzo Sonego, Oscar Otte, Casper Ruud, and Leonardo Mayer in swift fashion before beating Stan Wawrinka 7-6(5), 4-6, 7-6(4), 6-4 on Tuesday. He is now 9-1 on clay this spring, a record that also includes mostly successful returns to Madrid and Rome.
“I (have already) exceeded my expectations here,” Federer said following his win over Wawrinka. “You know, after missing the French for so many years it’s nice to be back in the semis. So that’s a great feeling…. Now I have the match with Rafa, and I’m clearly excited. I hope I can recover well in the next couple days, which I’m sure I will, and I’ll give it my best shot on Friday.”
“I really expect that he (is) gonna play aggressive, changing rhythms, going to the net,” Nadal noted. “That’s my feeling, that he (is) gonna try to play that way, because he’s playing well and he has the tennis to make that happen. I have to be solid; I have to hit the ball enough strong to [not] allow him to do the things from good positions. I need to let him play from difficult positions, so from there he (is) gonna have less chances to go to the net or to play his aggressive game.”
The 17-time major winner has almost always been able to execute that plan on clay, pinning Federer on the baseline and exploiting his one-handed backhand with heavy topspin forehands. It is difficult to see anything different transpiring on Friday, as even though Federer’s return to clay has been impressive it still doesn’t include any wins over anyone in the top 14.
This will not be a complete rout; the world No. 3 is too good for that. But on this surface it likely won’t go more than three sets.
Pick: Nadal in 3
[polldaddy poll=10335639]
Vaaaaaamoooooos Rafa!!!!!!
✌ ✌ ✌ ✌ ✌ ✌
Yeah awesome job by Rafa no matter what happens on sunday.. but that once incident where Roger tossed the ball into the crowd earning an abuse. I understand he was frustrated but Rafa was in the same position on a court he is expected to win on. Getting broken because of the conditions. But rafas demeanor vs the supposedly greatest of all time’s behavior tilts the scale in favor of rafa😊
And with Rafa doing his stuff quickly, i can go to work too
Would love to see DT win the other semi to have another crack at the KOC ….
So does Rafa stay no 2 through wimbledon or do the seedings may mean roger gets bumped to no 2?
I believe Rafa stays at #2 for now but it probably won’t matter much for Wimbly seedings since they have their own formula which takes current rankings and grass court performance over at least the last year, maybe longer. You’ll have to look up their formula. I’m sure Djokovic will be seeded #1. Rafa made the semis last year which will help. Fed did the quarters and was finalist in Halle? Won in 2017 but I’m not sure that counts.
Last 2 years counts .but I think 2017 has less weightage..fed won Stuttgart n Halle final..I doubt he will play Stuttgart next week..so points drop there..
Neways first let Rafa defend his 2000 points here..
Now I get to actually watch the match, having wimped earlier. I have my choice of NBC (McEnroe), which I would normally go with, but he’s a Fedfan and the obnoxious Mary Carillo is doing 2nd chair) or Tennis Channel with Jim Courier (who I usually like) and Ted Robinson (nonentity).
/rant on
OK, TC it is but the first words out of Courier’s mouth are “ALL of Rafa’s *surgeries*”. I swear I’ll attack Courier with a scalpel and demonstrate some surgery! OK, at least Rafa has now had ONE minor surgery to remove a bone spur but does he also count appendectomy? Wisdom teeth removal? Wart removal as a child? What?
/rant off I now return you to your regularly scheduled predictions, forecasts, backcasts, celebrations, whatever….:)
Wow, Thiem already a break up. Novak cant hit through him in these conditions.
Could be a long day for Novak.
Sorry guys that i stank these boards past 3 days n freaked out like crazy. I worried about feds words, his intent, some 2011 signs, some posters confidence on fed here and the weather and I just did not trust in Rafa. I am honestly surprised to see this being done in straights. Very happy though.
Yes you can strangle me..just not hard though 🙂
Rafa gets to play for 12th n hoping for Thiem to be there..I may watch Rafa Thiem 🙂 I like both. If it’s djoko I am not watching 🙂
Was this feds last at RG ? Next year is Olympics..I doubt he will play clay next year..n post that will be 39 or 40..if this was his last at french..great his last match was against his friend n biggest rival too who both took tennis to different levels of fandom. Well done by Fed to get 1080 points in clay .it’s a good buffer to have..we will see if it helps him in wimby .too early to say now.
Hey Sanju- any time you’re feeling worried and Mr. Kevin tells you you need not be worried, just have faith in me! 😉😂
Thiem could well win this match.
Congrats to the Rafa’s! Fedfans- I really do commend you for daring to dream, as it literally would be a dream scenario for 37 year old Fed to beat the King of Clay at RG. But this result was never in doubt to me. I did think it could have been at least a little more competitive, but my brain just could not rationalize anything but a comfortable win for Rafa. Also to me, the conditions made absolutely no difference. Sure, heavy wind makes it harder to serve and Fed’s serve is the cornerstone of his game, and the slower conditions make it harder to attack. But Rafa also would have played together if it were not windy and warmer, so it would just cancel out any advantage that better weather gave to Fed. Wind or no wind, warm or cold- Rafa was always going to win this match comfortably. This is his court, and his tournament. As I’ve said before, the ultra-aggressive game style that Fed has adopted in order to compete at an old age can be a bit deceiving, as it was largely a necessity for him due the the natural loss of pure firepower from the back of the court that comes with old tennis-age. And playing on clay against the best clay players in the world showed this. You just cannot realistically beat guys like Rafa and Thiem on clay if you lack the ability to create a lot of firepower from the back of the court. Fed never had the nearly the same raw power from the baseline that Rafa has, which is part of why Rafa has dominated Fed in clay so overwhelmingly. But when he was younger, Fed did still have a lot of power, just not as much as Rafa. Now, at almost 38, it’s naturally much more glaring. Fed has done amazingly to reinvent his game to be able to compete at the top of the game at an age when everyone else has always been retired. And I was greatly impressed that he was able to make the Semis at RG playing this way. But the guys it worked on are not Rafa or Thiem- not even close. And even then- Thiem is not Rafa.
I don’t want to take anything away from Fed because I never imagined he could make the RG semis at this age. I guess maybe he could have served better and maybe made the match just a LITTLE more competitive, but I don’t even know about that. Rafa dominated, and always was going to dominate. NID. 🤷♂️
The REAL test for Rafa, if there is even supposed to be a test for him at RG, will be against Novak or Thiem. When Rafa is in the final of RG, particularly after only dropping 1 set, that is literally THE worst nightmare for a male tennis player. Thiem technically has a chance to beat Rafa like Fed technically had a chance, but it’s an extremely low chance. Much higher than Fed’s chances, but still quite low, imo. As has been the case for years, Novak is the only guy in the world who has a truly realistic shot at beating Rafa at RG.
There is no question, to me, that Rafa has had the best form through 6 rounds. But we have seen many times Novak lift his game in the Final. And we saw him do it against Rafa at AO this year. Leading into that final, Rafa looked nearly unbeatable to me. He looked so good that it starting getting hard to imagine Novak lifting his game THAT much for the final, even though it was Novak’s best court. But he suddenly became a different player for that match. I’m not saying that that is likely to happen at RG, but it shows that Novak is still capable of considerably lifting his game. I just realized that I’m typing this without thinking to check the score of Novak vs. Thiem! Everything I said about Novak could be irrelevant depending on that score haha. 🤦♂️
But, Djoko has never beaten Rafa in a FO final or a SF. Rafa is 2-0 in finals and 3-0 in SFs vs Djoko.
What you’ve posted about Djoko in slam finals, well, those happened in non clay slams; in fact Djoko was pretty disappointing in FO finals – he’s 1/4 in FO finals, losing two to Rafa and one to Stan, his worst performing slam.
Poor at USO conversion too right..3 out of 6..better than french though yes
3 out of 8 at the USO! He made finals in 2007, 2010 to 2013 (four in a row, quite incredible, Fed made five and won five 2004-2008); 2015-2016 and 2018. So, his success rate there is 37.5%, still better than at the FO’s 25%.
Djoko quite incredible at the HC slams, reaching 15 finals, one more than Fed; he’s 100% at AO finals and comparatively being poor at the USO, at 37.5% despite reaching one more final there.
OKay, I would like to share some points specifically about this match and then about Fedal in general.
1. Points regarding this particular match
– It was quite a spectacle to see these two INCREDIBLE champions adapt to these crazy conditions. These two artists on the court and the skill-level was on ultra high mode to navigate through these conditions.
-Both men started with nerves and were a bit hesitant due to the conditions and also due to their own reasons (Rafa being a bit nervous owing to his losing streak and Fed facing Rafa on Philppe Chatrier after 8 years.
-I mentioned a few things in my pre-match post and I was glad to see they were all quite relevant points in deciding the outcome. Federer DID lack belief in my opinion as contrary to some pundits and fed fans, he knows what a monster Rafa is at RG! Fed couldn’t fully commit to a some tactics at times.
-Rafa is just UNPLAYABLE when he plays like this. When he overcame nerves and got a bit used to the conditions ,he was merciless and he actually ended up hitting EIGHT more winners than federer!
-I mentioned Rafa’s backhand being fire since Barcelona and I was confident it would hold up well today. It was devastating and even toppled the mighty fed forehand often!
-As I said before the match, Rafa was READY to counter Fed’s return and of course the surface helped him.
-I HATE it when people reduce Rafa’s genuine to ‘brute force, power..’ etc.! He is a genius on court and tactically the smartest in my opinion. He is the ultimate problem solver on the court. Federer was intentionally using more slices due to the wind, going for more drop shots to take rhythm away but Rafa countered everything and showed us his own varieties.
👍 VR. Agreed.
Rafa is a genius on court, a tactical genius. He said it himself, that his game is not about overpowering his opponents with his aggression, but to make things difficult for his opponents and preventing them from playing their game well.
I like him and his game because he’s playing a thinking game like he’s playing chess. I value a good tennis brain more than anything else.
2. General points on Fedal After their 39th Meeting
-Massive respect for Fed for trying to make an impact (may be for the last time?) at the French?). He is so impressive in all regards and still is one of the best movers on the tour on clay even at 37.
-I am SO glad this match happened because being honest, it was to me frustrating to listen to all those tall, unsubstantiated claims that Fed would have taken Rafa down at RG had he switched to a larger racket. To me that was so absurd a claim and I was always trying to explain that a change in a few sq inches of racket head hasn’t made Fed’s backhand like Stan’s or Thiem’s; it was more a surprise element for Rafa in 2017 and finally a weapon to punish some old patterns from Rafa to which I referred to as ‘bad habits’ post their 2017 matches. The backhand effect was so much blown out of proportion. It was just silly to say this match is on Fed’s racket!! Rafa is now 92-2 on clay and is probably going to make it 12 French opens.He has been destroying opponents even when not at his best and here we were, expecting Fed to dominate him?
-Rafa demonstrated once again what makes him almost insurmountable on clay. If you pull out statistics, he is the king of saving break points at RG. He does that to EVERYONE and his level goes even higher.
-Roger’s biggest weapon in 2017 was his return and he really took Rafa by surprise. While the surface was a key thing here but I think Rafa was just totally ready with the right adjustments and he was very dominant from the baseline. You couldn’t have told watching this match that Fed’s backhand was that much different compared to earlier years. Sorry to disappoint those who were expecting Fed to rip 95 MPH backhands past Rafa’s defense.
-Rafa ALWAYS shits gears in the semis and finals, yet people always forget this. I expect him to raise it a tad more in the final or at least sustain it.
-Fed can cause Rafa trouble on his (the Swiss’s) preferred surfaces and it would be interesting to see their outdoor hard court matches.
-Finally, I am glad we got to witness Fedal at the French ONE MORE TIME 🙂
on the BP point, I meant Rafa being the strongest on important points. I will share some statistics later.
What effect will this match have on their future non clay matches..it sure has to have some effect..fed racked up those wins in 2017 only n his bh n ros were largely better that year compared to 18 n 19..yes this was not a drubbing like 2008 to leave huge mental scars but I am sure atleast for Rafa it will be positive if not negative for fed.
I saw large parts of match n fed played well in first n second. He could have won second had he been bit more careful but Rafa was largely superior . Fed gave up in the third as it was a lost cause anyway.
Federer’s press conference:
https://www.rolandgarros.com/en-us/video/press-conference-roger-federer-semifinal
Fed is right about Rafa’s incredible shot-making and movement, but there was no mention of his own poor serving. In contrast, Nadal served great and generally dealt with the wind much better.
I had nightmares about Federer returning to RG after 3 years absence, winning the title after winning it 10 years ago and taking Rafa out on the way! I cannot imagine the hyperbole that Federer would have enjoyed had that happened. I’m so glad I woke up to the reality.
Have you guys read this..it’s nice article
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/06/sports/tennis/rafael-nadal-roger-federer-french-open-carlos-moya.html
Yep, read that already. Anyway thanks!
I’m really glad that Rafa is able to get Moya as his coach, because Moya is someone Rafa knows from young and someone he can trust as friend and coach. I think Rafa’s team is a closely knit one, to get a new coach for Rafa is not that simple or easy and then Moya comes along and is available as a coach to Rafa.
Moya has given Rafa some new ideas and manages to change some of Rafa’s approaches towards his practices/training and actual matches. The shortening of points issue has been discussed so often among us in the past, glad that it’s been implemented once Moya joined the team and replaced Toni.
Rafa is playing smart tennis now, reducing the grinding and upping his aggression by shortening points with good serving, and moving inside the court and approaching the net more often. He’ll be awesome once he’s able to combine his new found aggression with his unbelievable defensive skills.
Hi VR, thanks for your thoughts. I disagree strongly about the BH. That was a minor factor in this match. More relevant, was that Nadal reserved some of his most spectacular shots in response to shots off Fed’s racquet (both FH and BH) that would have been winners against any other player (indeed, against Nadal on most days). And, most important, Nadal played the big points much better.
I agree that Fed lacked self-belief; you could see it in his face. Partly, I think, that was because of the aforementioned unbelievable shots on big points by Rafa. But more generally, Fed’s 1st serve % was terrible, especially after the first set. It really let him down at 2-3, game point in the first set; and 2-0, game points in the second; and (especially) 4-4, 40-0 in the 2nd. 3rd set was all Nadal, partly because Fed had lost all belief that he could win.
It’s not too much of a stretch to say that the match would have had a very different character had Federer been able to serve better and in particular hit a few good 1st serves on important points. At the very least I think it would have gone to a 4th set.
I would say, in sum, that while Nadal left no doubt about who was the better player on the day, I think were they to play again in a week I would predict a closer match just because I would think Fed would serve better.
If Fed-Nadal play 5 matches on clay, Fed might win one set. Thats it.
Agree.. first set was on roger’s racket.. the wind affected his ball toss which took some pace off the ball and Rafa was extremely lucky that some of the balls which were going out landed in. Second set was a case of the tennis gods playing a cruel game where some net cords threw roger off else he would have won it. In the third set roger played strategically since taking the match into the fourth would have meant hurting his chances for the grass season. If the grass season was not so close, third set was definitely Roger’s since luck and wind cannot favor Rafa for three sets on the trot.
Rafa will be mighty relieved that the wind helped him pull out this impossible task of taking down Roger on Chatrier in the semi finals of roland garros
Haha .love the sarcasm ..hehe..
Me too, lol!!!
Joe, thanks for your reply.
Not sure which part exactly you disagree with but the fact that the backhand didn’t have much to do with this match is also another evidence to support my point that it was really blown out of proportion. It WAS a noticeable upgrade for Federer and it did impact their 2017 matches. But all those claims that Fed would have owned Rafa had he switched to a larger racket and won won multiple RGs were so absurd in my opinion. It was an upgrade but his backhand is NOT a stan wawrinka backhand and will always be at the mercy of Nadal’s mighty forehand. THe fact that Fed didn’t have enough self belief is perhaps the biggest evidence as nobody would know better than he does how much dynamics differ against Rafa at RG when wielding a larger racket.
To me the ROS was the biggest issue. Roger hit 85% of backhand returns with his topspin backhand in that AO 2017 and that was a big chance. The new racket gave him more confidence, more penetration and Rafa was NOT ready to face that. Rafa is now better prepared and his second serve is also stronger.
Yes, Federer could have served better and he normally does serve better. He might have won a set but being honest I never thought their RG match would be close, esp when Rafa regained his form in Rome.
Like I said, I would love to see their future non-clay matches. Indoor matches certainly will favor Federer and I am most keen to see their outdoor non-clay matches.
As expected, Rafa just too good. I was hoping Fed might be able to win a set, but alas he only had a few chances and they went begging. The extreme wind would’ve made it harder, but even without it he may have lost in 3 sets all the same.
Disappointing that the second match has been delayed. It’s really not fair the way these things go, they should reschedule for Monday assuming conditions allow it.
So, those who said that Fed would play with nothing to lose attitude were wrong. And, those who said that after Fed’s five in a row win over Rafa, his mental block against Rafa was gone were also wrong.
Like I asked earlier on, who said Fed won’t get nervous facing Rafa on clay at RG? Playing Rafa on clay is a whole different issue from facing him on the HCs. And on clay, Rafa has no mental block against anyone (not even against Djoko), hence he’s able to raise his level appropriately to handle the situation on hand. Even in the Rome final when facing Djoko, he’s able to come out all guns blazing, and one would expect Djoko to fight back (knowing him, more so in a final) but Rafa handled the situation well after losing the second set.
For Rafa, the problem is with himself – his injuries and self doubts. He did poorly at MC and Barcelona because he was filled with negativity, doubting himself and so he’s not motivated. His body language then was so un-Rafalike, no emotions, no joy, it’s like just going through the motions, so soulless and that was so worrying for all his fans.
Moya revealed all these in his interviews, and he had done a good job of having a good talk to Rafa, showing his care and understanding (not only him but the whole team showing affection and care for Rafa) and making him believe in himself again. It’s all in the mindset, once Rafa overcome the negativity, we can see his improvement tournament after tournament.
I think the same could be said of Djoko after his FO QF loss last year, he was full of negative thoughts after that and even thinking of giving up. But, he did overcome that negativity and then what happened? He went on to win three slams in a row. It would be a big mistake if he quit after that FO loss!
Same with Rafa here, the fact that he’s in another FO final means his game is still there, and he may win another FO title again this coming Sunday!
So how do you think their next non clay match will pan out ? I think it will be positive for Rafa and not negative for roger either..Rafa will go in with good mentality
Press the reset button. It will be business as usual for Fedal.
If you ask me, meeting on grass adv Fed, on clay adv Rafa; on slow HCs adv Rafa, on quick HCs and also indoor HCs adv Fed.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PArdGuzZOac
Rafa’s SF post match presser