“Nothing to lose” has to be the dumbest saying in sports.
There’s always something to lose. You know, like the actual game. Or match. Or race. Or whatever the particular competition may be. And that’s not even to mention the spoils that come with those competitions–in tennis’ case, such as ranking points and prize money.
But if ever a time the “nothing to lose” mantra rings true, it’s for Roger Federer in his upcoming French Open semifinal showdown against Rafael Nadal.
Consider. If Federer loses, well, that’s what was supposed to happen. He’s currently sitting at +1200 to capture the title; Nadal is -140. That could change depending on the sportsbook, but if you research sites to bet on tennis matches it’s obvious Federer is not getting much love in this upcoming semifinal match. Nadal is a clear favorite over Federer and in the overall tournament as an 11-time champion at Roland Garros–including two in a row–and owner of a 12-2 clay-court record against the Swiss. Federer is supposed to lose; but if he wins, it will be the 21st biggest accomplishment of his illustrious career. Can you imagine the hype surrounding a Fed victory–beating Nadal on clay, at the French Open, at 37 years old, after having not played this event since 2015 and having not played at all on clay since 2016 prior to this season?
He stands to gain a ton. But what would he lose (other than the match)? Nothing. The 20-time slam champion has no ranking points to defend in Paris and his ranking is of no importance to him at this point in his career, anyway. Prize money, for obvious reasons, is similarly irrelevant. Legacy? This is a guy who has been to 30 major finals; a loss in a semifinal as a heavy underdog would have no negative impact in that department.
“I feel now I can play pressure free,” Federer said prior to this clay-court swing, “because what is there to lose? Nothing really. I haven’t played on clay for three years so maybe for the first time in 15 years I can go to the French and be like, ‘Let’s just see what happens.’ And maybe that’s exactly what is going to make a beautiful result.”
It’s been beautiful so far at the French, with four consecutive straight-set beatdowns followed by a four-set win over 2015 French Open champion and countryman Stan Wawrinka. Federer is now 9-1 on clay this season, spanning appearances in Madrid, Rome, and Paris. He is well-prepared on the red stuff but also well-rested.
Now the question is if he is good enough right now to beat–even challenge remains to be seen–the King of Clay.
“Like against any player, there is always a chance,” Federer said following his 7-6(4), 4-6, 7-6(5), 6-4 defeat of Wawrinka on Tuesday. “Otherwise nobody will be in the stadium to watch because everybody already knows the result in advance. And I think sport does that to you; every match needs to be played before it’s decided. And that’s exactly what everybody believes by facing Rafa. They know it’s going to be tough–but you just never know. He might have a problem. He might be sick. You never know. You might be playing great or for some reason he’s struggling. Maybe there’s incredible wind, rain…10 rain delays. You just don’t know. That’s why you need to put yourself in that position.
“For me to get to Rafa is not simple. It took five matches here for me to win to get there. That’s why I’m very happy to play Rafa, because if you want to do or achieve something on the clay, inevitably at some stage, you will go through Rafa. Because he’s that strong and he will be there.”
Nadal is, in fact, there in the semifinals. Federer is, too. The result is their 39th career head-to-head collision on Friday.
“I knew that when I signed up for the clay that hopefully that’s gonna happen,” the world No. 3 said of a meeting with Nadal. “If I would have had a different mindset to avoid him, then I should not have played the clay.”
Now it’s time for Federer to take the correct mindset into the match. He’s already doing that, in part, by believing that he has a chance. Tactically he’ll have to play uber aggressive, play much closer to the baseline than Nadal, and get into net more frequently than we almost ever see from anyone on this surface. Baseline rallies just aren’t going to work in this matchup. And, of course, Federer will have to fare better on break points than his 2-for-18 effort against Wawrinka.
The bottom line is he has to play to win; he can’t play not to lose. After all, for Federer, there is nothing to lose.
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dangerous? Fed’s always dangerous. does he have a realistic chance? no.
Very surprised to hear you say that, Ricky. People are putting far too much emphasis on history and not nearly enough on current form. On form, this match looks to be very close.
Really great essay on “nothing to lose”….fun to read. Fed in 4.
From an old classic Rafa presser:
Q: Who would you like to meet in the semifinal?
A: I wan’ to be IN the semifinal. I would like to meet with someone there.
More recently, he has been much more open about preferring to face easier opponents, and specifically preferring not to face Federer in 2017.
And Djoko, always on any surface and any time, not only in 2017.
lol, Federer has so “preferred” not to play Rafa on clay that he has not played on clay for last two years! Federer’s decision making is often emotional rather than logical but I guess he finally figured out that he literally has nothing to lose. Ironic that this RG is the slam where he’s performed best since AO 2018.
Whatever happens here,I care more about his performance at Wimby, though.
Really? I would much prefer for Fed to win another RG title than another Wimby title. Same for Novak, and if I were a Rafa fan I would most want him to win another AO. No player has ever won two of each slam; that’s worth a lot!
Well, that’s logical, of course Id prefer Roger to win another RG , but I guess I wasn’t thinking he could again at his age, more realistic that he would win Wimby .
For the past couple of years, I’ve had this romantic idea that he’d beat Nadal (or Djokovic) in a classic Wimby final and then he could retire .
yep. Any Rafa fan should want him to win another Aussie WAY more than any other slam.
I could kind of see a Rafa fan wanting him to win another Wimby, because that would be 3 slams on each surface, which would be pretty impressive.
Nadal had nothing to do with Fed not playing clay in 2017-18. His team (and mainly his trainer) told him that they didn’t think it was good for his knee and that he needed to preserve his body. If had just been up to Fed, he would have played on clay both years.
Winning Wimby again is surely much better for Rafa than another AO .
If Fed is to play uber aggressive tennis, chances are he will make more errors. On a quick HC, maybe Fed will have bigger chance of success, but on slow clay surface, his opponent will have more time to counter attack, in fact, a player like Rafa will be able to ‘force’ Fed to go for more and thus makes more errors.
Yes, you’re right that he will probably make more errors. The important question is whether he hits more winners/causes more errors by Rafa than he makes errors himself. Incidentally, this is why I say the match is on Fed’s racquet.
Please, on Fed’s racket? Yeah right, 10% of it, the rest of 90% will be on Rafa’s racket! Alright I’ll make it 13.33%, that’s how much Fed won on clay against Rafa! Read what TWN had written about ‘on who’s racket’?
Fed is 15-23 against Rafa, hows their matches on Fed’s racket? Even against Djoko when he’s 22-25, it’s still about 50-50, so how’s it on Fed’s racket? Just because Fed is the more aggressive player doesn’t mean the match is on his racket, as if his opponent has no say in it.
It’s the counterpunchers who are the ones who give Fed the most headaches – Rafa, Djoko, Murray, Simon – so against them, the matches are not on Fed’s rackets, it depends on them, how they could counter attack , and at least two of them – Rafa and Djoko – have proven they can and could snatch the racket out of Fed’s hand, ie 48 out of 85 times, so it’s hardly on Fed’s racket!
Last clay match was in 2013, before the new racket. Much more relevant is recent history and current form. Fed has not lost to Nadal since 2014 and has won seven straight sets dating back to AO 2017. He has regained the mental edge. On form (if one had only seen their matches at this year’s FO and knew nothing of their history) I think most people would predict the match would be very close.
As the player who will dictate most of the play, I say the match is definitely on Fed’s racket even if you think the odds are against him producing the kind of tennis necessary to win.
I don think that’s the tactic Roger will use,its more for fast courts.He’ll use the net, but more subtle than that, with a lot of slice to keep the ball low in the damp conditions.
Sorry, that was to Lucky at 12.22
His slices are not effective against Rafa. Even on grass they’re not effective against Rafa, what more on clay?
Dropshots?
You’re right that the slice could be more important if the court is damp. Usually it’s not very effective against Rafa, especially on clay.
Fed is always dangerous
I disagree with Ricy in believing that he has no chance.
I would say he has little chance but he definitely has one.
Luckily, Rafa is not going to go on court believing that it’s a given so, as usual, he’ll give his 101 % and hopefully that will be enough to win
I forget which year it was but I recall Rafa absolutely slaughtered Federer at Roland Garros. Having said that Rafa is older but less sure of himself whereas –as already commented on – at 37 yrs old Federer is as cool as a cucumber and playing ominously well. Just hope Rafa doesn’t become rattled by him. We know he has set his heart on biting on the his 12th RG trophy.
Mind you the wretched rain delays must be playing havoc with with all the players’ nerves.
So ed your prediction ?
Ed,it was in 2008, the same year Rafa beat Fed at Wimbledon to win his first Wimbledon title.
Sloane said the court was playing very fast yesterday..as most of the clay was blown off by wind..
Did rafa also feel something like that or say something to that effect ?
Sanju, I watched Rafa’s match vs Kei, the court looked so slow to me; add in Rafa’s heavy topspin ball, its like watching a slow mo movie.
Fed vs Stan, OTOH, looked more like they’re playing on a HC. I think the SL Court is a quicker court than the PC Court if I’m not wrong.
Will anything get played today ? 3 hrs of play lost already..m
Nope. RG has cancelled today. Not sure what that means for tomorrow? I guess today’s matches move to tomorrow and semis are hopefully on Friday? Guess I need to check tomorrow’s OOP.
If I’m honest, I was hoping Stan would come through that would have been much easier for Rafa.
Why would stan be easier…he would have had 2 full days to recover n would be fresh…
Stan is no match for a fit Rafa on any surface. Their h2h is 18-3 to Rafa and those 3 wins were when Rafa had back injury in AO 2014 and 2 in 2015 when Rafa was losing to every other player as his confidence was rock bottom because of his frequent injuries. Did you see their final match at RG in 2017? Stan got 6 games.
Normally I would also want Fed to lose prior to a match-up with Rafa but, this time I wanted him to win. Even if this means that perhaps he’ll beat Rafa. (I hope not)
Somehow, as they approach the end of their tennis careers, I’ve become fonder of Fed because of the respect and admiration he shows (and gets) for Rafa. Someone said that it would be ‘poetic justice’ if Fed were to beat Rafa in RG now and I kind of agree, it would add another chapter to their rivalry.
Nevertheless, I hope it’s “business as usual” and Rafa gets to the final without too much trouble.
Agree…same thoughts I echo.started to like fed now given that he has been very complimentary towards rafa since past 3 years..all that laver cup bonding etc etc..
However no I am not ok if he beats rafa at rg this year..he can beat him later at wimby but not here 🙂
No and no to both of you, Shireling and Sanju. I want to see Rafa beat whoever to win his 12th FO, and I want to see Rafa meeting and beating Fed at the USO.
As for Wimbledon, even though I wish for Rafa to win at least one more Wimbledon, I have doubt that he could beat Fed there at Wimbledon, so no, I don’t wish for them to meet there.
The matches postponed today actually is bad news for rafa/fed..djoko will come out raser sharp focussed tomm to finish off alex in straights whereas thiem as usual will be up n down with karen..with no days rest between Thursday n Friday..the extra play by thiem tomm will compromise him for Friday n that will mean djoko in final ..not good news for either fed or rafa
Eh, if anything it is probably good for Nadal. The whole other side of the draw may now just have less time to recover, whoever makes it out (probably Novak but you never know).
I also wouldn’t worry so much about Thiem’s endurance, imo he is very good in that department. The problem for Thiem is his consistency, that’s the reason he ends up in so many long matches that may have seemed avoidable if he were able to play his best all the way through. Physically he is very strong and this is part of why he’s tough on clay, athletically he should basically be in prime condition at this age.
The match with karen can go very long..karen played very well vs delpo n was serving big n hitting well off both wings..
I’m not sure that Djoko could finish off Sasha quickly. Sasha is fond of extending his matches and I doubt Djoko could just do as he pleases against Sasha.
I think both matches may go four sets; and mind you, Thiem in BO5 is hard to put away so don’t expect Djoko to have it easy against Thiem should they get to meet.
I think I notice something about Djoko at the FO – he rarely could come out all guns blazing, maybe it’s because it’s BO5 and the courts there are slow, so he tends to pace himself carefully not to be overly aggressive, so that he still could’ve enough energy to go the distance when the need arises.
Thiem’s style is hit or miss. He goes for broke on every shot sometimes it works sometimes it doesn’t.
Yeah I like watching Thiem as he is such an impressive hitter, but he is still a bit one dimensional. There isn’t a lot of variety to his game, he goes for heaviness, depth and power from both wings and basically breaks down opponents from the baseline.
If he plays Novak it could be an epic encounter. I actually expected him to win the last time they played at RG since Djokovic’s form wasn’t very good. Now he’s near his best it should be a lot more interesting to see how effective Thiem is at hitting through the Djoko defence.
I would think he’ll be a handful for Djoko. Thiem could overpower Djoko imo. He’s a bit like a Stan, a younger version. He does improve a bit on his varieties, not afraid to move to the net. Djoko needed two TB sets to beat Thiem at Rome, and that’s after Thiem’s three sets match vs Fed.
It’ll be interesting to see Djoko’s DHBH vs Thiem’s SHBH, and how Thiem go about trying to break down Djoko’s defence.
The womens semi has been pushed to Friday just like the mens.this means both mens semis will not be played on chartier..it will happen in parallel across both courts …I hope fed rafa get chartier
I think both the men’s SFs and one women’s SF will be on PC Court with the other women’s SF on SL.
I think they have enough time for three matches on PC, provided the weather allows that.
Friday weather is bad. So they are talking of using all 3 courts…use chartier for both mens n then schedule one womens on Lenglen n one on simon mathieu
there is a chance both men’s will still be on Chatrier
Fedal will be first
As Djoko’s half of the draw will play their QFs tomorrow, so their SF should be played later on Friday to give them time to recover. So, it’s likely their SF will be after the Fedal SF on PC Court.
Sanju JUNE 5, 2019 AT 4:18 PM
“…I hope fed rafa get chartier”
What do you think? 😉
I know they will get chartier..that’s where big bucks will come..but I only care about rafa beating fed on Friday…even if he is made to play on the road it’s ok for me 🙂
https://www.google.co.in/amp/s/www.express.co.uk/sport/tennis/1136770/French-Open-Monday-men-s-final-Nadal-Konta-Federer-Roland-Garros/amp
Mens final could be pushed to monday
If the Men’s final is on Monday, that means the Men’s SFs will be on Saturday; so Women’s final will then be on Sunday. Fedal will have three days rest before the SF whilst Djoko’s half will have a day’s rest after they finished their QF.
I hope no rain on Monday, if not another postponement!
For those who believe in signs, the man beating Nishikori has won the last three grand slams😂😂
Haha..that applies only to djokovic…whenever djoko has beaten Nishi..he has won the slam:-) fed beat him in ao 17..won the slam..
Rafa beat Nishi in 2012 ao..did not win the slam..
N except Stan in French 15 and djoko in AO 16..whoever has beaten fed before final has not won the slam
I mean 2012 onwards for fed 🙂
2012 onwards, Fed was going downhill, until his revival in 2017 to AO2018. Do you expect a Stakhovsky to win at Wimbledon 2013, or Robredo the USO2013, or a Gulbis the FO2014, or Millman the USO2018, or perhaps Tsitsipas the AO2019? Oh, I almost forget, Cilic did beat Fed in the SF en-route to his one and only USO title, in 2014, in addition to Stan winning his 2015 FO and Djoko’s 2016 AO.