During the heyday of their dominance, a Grand Slam semifinal between Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer would have been thought of as some sort of punishment inflicted by an unfair draw.
But it’s 2019 now, and any reinstallment of arguably the greatest rivalry in tennis history has to be treated as bonus. No matter that it will take place in the semifinals instead of a final. Given the current state of things in the men’s game, a Fedal semifinal feels just about right.
That will be the case when the two veterans square off for the 39th time in their careers at the French Open on Friday. Nadal leads the head-to-head series 23-15, including 13-2 on clay and 5-0 at Roland Garros. But it’s not all bad news for Federer; not even close. The 37-year-old has won five in a row at the Spaniard’s expense dating back to 2015, including in the 2017 Australian Open title match to go along with a trio of victories at Masters 1000s and one in Basel.
Virtual home-court advantage goes to Nadal this time around, even though the crowd will surely throw its support behind Federer. The 11-time French Open champion is an absolutely outrageous 91-2 lifetime at this tournament, losing only to Robin Soderling (2009) and Novak Djokovic (2015) before withdrawing prior to the third round in 2016. He has been up to his usual tricks this fortnight with routine wins over Yannick Hanfmann, Yannick Maden, David Goffin (in four sets), Juan Ignacio Londero, and Kei Nishikori.
Federer has also surrendered only a single set. The third-ranked Swiss’ disposed of Lorenzo Sonego, Oscar Otte, Casper Ruud, and Leonardo Mayer in swift fashion before beating Stan Wawrinka 7-6(5), 4-6, 7-6(4), 6-4 on Tuesday. He is now 9-1 on clay this spring, a record that also includes mostly successful returns to Madrid and Rome.
“I (have already) exceeded my expectations here,” Federer said following his win over Wawrinka. “You know, after missing the French for so many years it’s nice to be back in the semis. So that’s a great feeling…. Now I have the match with Rafa, and I’m clearly excited. I hope I can recover well in the next couple days, which I’m sure I will, and I’ll give it my best shot on Friday.”
“I really expect that he (is) gonna play aggressive, changing rhythms, going to the net,” Nadal noted. “That’s my feeling, that he (is) gonna try to play that way, because he’s playing well and he has the tennis to make that happen. I have to be solid; I have to hit the ball enough strong to [not] allow him to do the things from good positions. I need to let him play from difficult positions, so from there he (is) gonna have less chances to go to the net or to play his aggressive game.”
The 17-time major winner has almost always been able to execute that plan on clay, pinning Federer on the baseline and exploiting his one-handed backhand with heavy topspin forehands. It is difficult to see anything different transpiring on Friday, as even though Federer’s return to clay has been impressive it still doesn’t include any wins over anyone in the top 14.
This will not be a complete rout; the world No. 3 is too good for that. But on this surface it likely won’t go more than three sets.
Pick: Nadal in 3
[polldaddy poll=10335639]
who ya got?
Federer in 3. Yes, you are hearing it for first time. Federer’s ROS will be more than enough to go deep on almost Nadal’s every service game, and creating astronomical chances to break Nadal frequently.
Nadal may break Federe 1 time in every set, but Federer has the capability to break Nadal at least twice in every set, thanks to Nadal’s no so good service.
So, Federer in 3.
Federer’s ‘nothing to lose’ attitude would be the biggest weapon against Nadal this time. I am surprised why people are not realizing this important factor. Federer with ‘nothing to lose’ attitude is probably one of the most lethal things of any sports.
I have not even talked about Federer’s latest confidence against Nadal, and his big racket, Neo Backhand weaponry and currently ultra aggressive tennis. He sounds ready for a dogfight to beat Nadal one last and first time at French Open.
Fedalovic, I see you are dong a great job at convincing yourself there!!!
Fortunately Rafa’s serving good this tournament and I believe the Roger ROS was the biggest reason for this victories in 2017.
Rafa’s backhand has also been working great this clay season and while the forehand has been a bit error prone, he is going for his shots and will clean it up further. Rafa will mentally be ready and handle this in 4 sets.
Fed will try to play very aggressively but I don’t think an upset is happening here.
Hi VR, I tend to agree about Fed’s ROS in 2017. I do remember Rafa wasn’t serving great during 2017 HC season; it’s until the clay season that year that he revealed his incredible second serve. I think he or Moya mentioned that with his improved second serve, Rafa need not worry when delivering his first serve and he could rely on his second serve (and Rafa won over 60% of his second serves that year on clay!).
Yep, Rafa’s second serve is tougher to attack now and he improved it after those losses to Fed. The Fed backhand will hold up better but it is not going to create that winning edge for him.
I don’t like the weather thought. Would prefer hotter and dry conditions
I have Nadal in 4. I think Fed is playing well enough to get a set, but not more than that.
I honestly don’t know about this one.Nadal at his best will win,but he mightn’t be,and Fed could have the mental edge.
I still can’t pick against Nadal at RG though.
Good to see rafa expects fed to be aggressive and go to the net , so I am hoping he and moya will strategise accordingly and be prepared.
Though ricky ,nadal in 3 is slightly optimistic..federer with nothing to lose and really raring to go for this will definitely not lose in 3 though I hope he does 🙂 ..however more outrageous is the Fed in 3 pick above 🙂
Still dreaming…Fed in 4….and what an honor and privilege it will be for ALL of us to watch these two champions play once again!
Nadal has lost 2 sets to 3 players during his career on this court. It was against Djokovic, Soderling and Isner. Fed came close in 2006 I think.
Currently, i think there’s only 1 player that can win 2 sets and thats Djokovic.
Nadal’s results this year are as ruthless as theyve ever been. Not sure its a good thing for Fed that Nadal lost a set to Goffin also.
Nadal in 3
Im leaning towards 3 but i give Fed a chance of winning a set.
Fed will win a set. He is playing to well not to.
That said, its going to be extremely windy on Friday in the afternoon. I dont know how that changes the dynamic.
Rafa would have hoped for sunny and dry. But, thats exactly what its not going to be.
The wind will affect both players, not only Rafa. Rafa has played and won on that court in many years and many times, rain or shine.
Fed will have nothing to lose. But, if & when he is ahead, he will have everything to lose. LOL
What Roger said in his presser about the match
https://www.rolandgarros.com/en-us/video/press-conference-federer-quarterfinal-rg19
What Rafa said in his presser about the match
https://www.rolandgarros.com/en-us/video/press-conference-nadal-quarterfinal-rg19
Rafa in 4. Maybe 3. Best for Fed is 4 tight sets. I’d be happy to see either guy win, though.
I have a feeling about this one , its going to be much closer than in the past because Roger isn’t going to play Nadal’s game this time.
Ash Barty, Konta, both attacking players, neither expected to do this well on clay.
The big difference is mental,Rafa’s not as confident , Roger has nothing to prove at his age so will play more freely than say in 2006-7 .
The damp weather will probably help Fed also.
However, I still wouldn’t bet against Rafa at RG.
Its really annoying not just for the players having to wait around for matches ..
This site these days is a combination of group-think and gamblers’ fallacy. There is absolutely no reason for anyone to think Fed will lose in 3, when Goffin took a set off Nadal a few days ago. Nor is Nadal’s incredible record at RG relevant to right now, when he’s clearly not the same player.
Ricky says that Fed has yet to beat anyone in the top 14, but he has played very tough competition in Thiem, Coric, and Stan, all of whom played great against him. Imo Thiem played better against Fed than he did in beating Nadal. Yet Fed held two match points and was inches from winning. Rafa has not defeated tougher competition except for Djokovic, who was very sub-par and still managed to take a set.
Fedalovic makes some very important points that most people are overlooking. With the new racquet, Fed is a different player, even on clay. He will threaten to break Rafa’s serve in many if not most games and this time he will be much better than 2 of 18 on BP conversions. His BH will be as much a weapon as a liability. And he will hold comfortably in most of his own service games. Add in the fact that all the pressure is on Nadal, and that adds up to a convincing victory for Roger. Federer in 3, at most 4 sets, for the win.
This site these days is a combination of group-think and gamblers’ fallacy.
true true
This site these days is a combination of group-think and gamblers’ fallacy.
True true true