During the heyday of their dominance, a Grand Slam semifinal between Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer would have been thought of as some sort of punishment inflicted by an unfair draw.
But it’s 2019 now, and any reinstallment of arguably the greatest rivalry in tennis history has to be treated as bonus. No matter that it will take place in the semifinals instead of a final. Given the current state of things in the men’s game, a Fedal semifinal feels just about right.
That will be the case when the two veterans square off for the 39th time in their careers at the French Open on Friday. Nadal leads the head-to-head series 23-15, including 13-2 on clay and 5-0 at Roland Garros. But it’s not all bad news for Federer; not even close. The 37-year-old has won five in a row at the Spaniard’s expense dating back to 2015, including in the 2017 Australian Open title match to go along with a trio of victories at Masters 1000s and one in Basel.
Virtual home-court advantage goes to Nadal this time around, even though the crowd will surely throw its support behind Federer. The 11-time French Open champion is an absolutely outrageous 91-2 lifetime at this tournament, losing only to Robin Soderling (2009) and Novak Djokovic (2015) before withdrawing prior to the third round in 2016. He has been up to his usual tricks this fortnight with routine wins over Yannick Hanfmann, Yannick Maden, David Goffin (in four sets), Juan Ignacio Londero, and Kei Nishikori.
Federer has also surrendered only a single set. The third-ranked Swiss’ disposed of Lorenzo Sonego, Oscar Otte, Casper Ruud, and Leonardo Mayer in swift fashion before beating Stan Wawrinka 7-6(5), 4-6, 7-6(4), 6-4 on Tuesday. He is now 9-1 on clay this spring, a record that also includes mostly successful returns to Madrid and Rome.
“I (have already) exceeded my expectations here,” Federer said following his win over Wawrinka. “You know, after missing the French for so many years it’s nice to be back in the semis. So that’s a great feeling…. Now I have the match with Rafa, and I’m clearly excited. I hope I can recover well in the next couple days, which I’m sure I will, and I’ll give it my best shot on Friday.”
“I really expect that he (is) gonna play aggressive, changing rhythms, going to the net,” Nadal noted. “That’s my feeling, that he (is) gonna try to play that way, because he’s playing well and he has the tennis to make that happen. I have to be solid; I have to hit the ball enough strong to [not] allow him to do the things from good positions. I need to let him play from difficult positions, so from there he (is) gonna have less chances to go to the net or to play his aggressive game.”
The 17-time major winner has almost always been able to execute that plan on clay, pinning Federer on the baseline and exploiting his one-handed backhand with heavy topspin forehands. It is difficult to see anything different transpiring on Friday, as even though Federer’s return to clay has been impressive it still doesn’t include any wins over anyone in the top 14.
This will not be a complete rout; the world No. 3 is too good for that. But on this surface it likely won’t go more than three sets.
Pick: Nadal in 3
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I agree with Joe Smith. This is exactly what I was trying to convey and the people are not being to realize. Stan Wawrinka had one of the finest ‘Serve’day I have ever seen in a long time. Apart from last set Wawrinka, was making astronomical set of First Service IN percentages but Federer was still doing deep in almost every other service game. And Nadal will never have the luxury of Stan’s incredible serve, and Federer will literally get into almost every other service game.
The only way Federer was not able to convert most of BP’s against Stan due to stunning day of service by Stan. And Nadal wouldn’t be getting this luxury again. The only way Stan survived 3 set defeat due to his amazing service day and still Federer created gigantic set of break points. And this thing is not being highlighted by certain analysis.
Stan’s serving was clutch for sure, but overall he’s just a different style of player. Nadal won’t generally hit many big serves or get free service points the way Stan does, but nor will he make the unforced errors. Also, Fed’s BP conversion is always likely to be worse on clay, as the surface rewards defence and makes it harder to hit quick winners.
When Stan is on fire he’s extremely difficult to beat as he basically just paints lines and he can hit them from anywhere. But in most matches he’ll throw up enough UE’s for an opponent to create chances. Nadal plays with a lot of margin and will commence many neutral baseline rallies, which is much easier for him to do on clay.
The 1st set is obviously critical for Federer, as at this point he has his best chance of hitting through the court. The longer the rallies go, the longer the match goes, the more difficult it is to maintain the aggression – we have seen that story before. Even against Stan you could see this shift and as time went on Wawrinka could hit through the court better. At that point it may become tempting for Fed to go to the net i.e. maximum aggression. The problem is that this can be somewhat successful on a HC, but on clay it’s worse. This is one part of why the 2008 final was so one-sided. Federer had realised that going toe-to-toe from the baseline with Nadal was a recipe for losing again (he was right about that) and that he had to change something. So he went more aggressive and high risk, but instead of being ground down at the baseline, he lost quickly as Nadal had so much time to hit past him.
On HC/Grass the strategy for Fed against Nadal is now pretty clear: Hit over the backhand including on ROS, maintain aggression, serve/volley & use the full court to avoid Rafa getting into a rythmn. This may continue to work for him on those courts into 2019. On a clay court this strategy is not likely to be as successful, it’s just hard to play a lot of short point tennis.
With Fed’s new racquet, I think Nadal has only a slight advantage from the baseline, which can be neutralized by aggression coupled with judicious net approaches and sharp angles. That’s what we saw in 2017, even on very slow HC. True, PC court will be even slower, but Fed is still more than capable of hitting through Nadal.
As I said before, the main thing is to commit to an ultra aggressive strategy and not revert to long baseline rallies. Fed started with that in 2011, but gave up on it much too early. His model needs to be something like Dustin Brown at Wimby. I don’t know how many times he got passed in that match, but he kept coming and it paid off in the end. Obviously Fed is not going to come in that much to the net, but the point is to commit to an aggressive strategy and not lose heart when he gets passed or Nadal hits a fifth or sixth aggressive shot back.
And people here are advocating how Nadal almost won Australian Open 2017. The scoreline indeed sounded close. But, the thing is. Nadal had no business winning that AO & getting that close.
Federer was comfortably cruising and was two sets to one up in no time without any trouble, but after 3rd set, the old memories of Nadal got into Federer’s mind, creating pressure and self doubt, and match got that long to the extent that Federer literally had to play one of the finest display of tennis to comeback in 5th set.
Now that pressure is gone after AO 2017, and Nadal has not even broken Federer after AO final. Such is the the confidence.
I guaranty u if Federer and Nadal meet again under same condition of AO 2017 – but Federer with confidence after winning 5 consecutive matches and with the mindset up of getting the monkey off his back – Federer would beat Nadal in straight sets at AO again. That AO 2017 5 set stretch was the function of Federer’s old self doubt against Nadal, otherwise that match should have been won by Federer in maximum 4 sets.
Now, With Federer’s latest aggressive brand of tennis, extreme confidence, backhand no longer a liability, excellent service, decent ROS, ESPECIALLY NOTHING TO LOSE MINDSET, and Nadal’s weak serve are one of those factors I believe Federer would beat Nadal in straight sets at French Open 2019. At max, I can’t see Nadal winning more than 1 Set honestly.
Extreme confidence still got his serve broken by Stan, who’s not even the best returner of serves! Had Stan been a little bit fresher, he would’ve won the third set and Fed would need to go the distance against Stan.
Against Stan Fed is already so ‘not Confident’, what about against Rafa?
Stan’s level in that QF was probably not far from what Rafa’s will be in the SF. And Fed should have won that match in straight sets. Fedalovic is right, for instance, that Fed basically broke himself when serving at 1-1, 40-15 in the second set.
Fed breaking himself is a bad thing, you know….
True, but it’s something within his control, on his racquet. My main point is that those who think Rafa will bring a whole different level from what Fed just saw and beat in Stan in the QF are almost certainly wrong. It will be a different style of tennis, no doubt, but likely in the same ballpark in terms of overall quality.
In Rafa’s words… we gonna see, no? Considering Federer has all these advantages over Rafa, it will be a massive upset I guess if Rafa wins against all odds
Lol haha..just as djokovic caused massive upset in AO final beating Rafa in 3:-)
No one is saying that. But virtually everyone on this site, including Ricky, is picking Nadal in 3. If they were saying 5 I could see it, but it seems Fed is getting no respect here from most of the Rafans. Apart from the historical record on clay (last match: six years ago), it’s hard to see it on current form and more recent H2H.
You can’t criticise people for not respecting Federer when you’re equally disrespecting Rafa. You said earlier his brilliant record at Roland Garros doesn’t count in today’s match? Of course it does! Rafa has an aura about him at Roland Garros that isn’t the case at other clay tournaments. It doesn’t mean he’s unbeatable, but he’s still heavily the favourite, and nothing he’s done this year changes that, including losing a set to Goffin in what was otherwise a straight forward match. And he’s not the same player? Rafa’s not playing that differently to how he did in the early stages last year, where he still went on to win. He’s been serving well and playing fine, on and off, since Rome. Rafa’s C game is still enough to beat the majority of people at RG. And if Rafa isn’t the same player anymore, Federer certainly isn’t either.
You big up the amazingly challenging players Federer has played and nearly beaten on clay, yet you totally dismiss the fact that Rafa bagelled and breadsticked Djokovic in Rome, putting all the onus on Novak being tired, which is totally unfair on Rafa. I’m not saying Rafa will beat Federer today, but to say it’s ridiculous to predict that Nadal will beat Federer in straights at Roland Garros, and then go on to say that you think Federer will beat Nadal in straights, is bizarre to me. I know you criticise people on this site for attacking you for your opinions on Rafa, but you do seem very keen to give him little to no credit whatsoever.
Amen Arthur!!……..could not have said it better. And there many of them like that here om this site!
Well, if Stan who’s not known to have good ROS, could break Fed’s serve to win a set and almost two sets, I think Rafa will do better to break Fed’s serve more than twice to win the match. Fed despite serving well still got broken by Stan, I think he should be worried about his own service game.
I don’t see Rafa not feeling confident against Fed, after all he own Fed on clay, whatever happened on the HCs are irrelevant; Rafa is beating all his opponents so confidently here, esp against Kei. He also played the right game plan to beat Djoko at Rome, why would he fear Fed? Fed’s SHBH greater than Djoko’s DHBH? I doubt!
Those players who played aggressive tennis to win here? Well, are their opponents by the name of Rafa Nadal?
Luckystar, just because Federer has great serve, it doesn’t mean he will never be broken by Nadal again. I categorically stated in my very earlier comments that Nadal indeed may break Nadal but Federer will break more and get into deep of almost every second game of Nadal’s service.
I am saying that Nadal may find it hard to break Federer is the fact Nadal has never broken Federer post AO 2017 Final, even hardly created break points in those matches. This is what the confidence and inspiration has done to Federer against Nadal.
Regarding Stan breaking Federer twice, I couldn’t watch the 3rd set how Stan broke Federer – may be due to the frustration Federer was carrying for not being able to convert break points.
But, I was watching the second set where Wawrinka broke Federer out of nowhere. More than Stan, it was rather a self-break destruction by Federer himself in that service break. I think Federer was cruising that service game with 40-0 or 40-15 when out of nowhere Fed started made sloppy errors to break himself, honestly. Until then Federer was not even giving Stan the flexibility to even get 40-30 into his (fed) serve games, let alone facing deduce or fighting break points. I don’t think Federer will lose concentration like this against Nadal, or having relaxation to self break like this in 2ND set against Wawrinka. But, again, this does not mean Nadal might never break Nadal, the point of ponder is that Federer would probably break Nadal more and create infinite break chances against Nadal service more than Nadal breaking Federer or creating more break chances.
Secondly, Federer’s Forehand has surprised me little as I was not expecting that Federer’s forehand would start clicking and hitting that much harder than I have seen in a long time. May be his forehand has started working like old at the right time at the right place.
Dear Friend, if Fed could get frustrated by Stan, then more so by Rafa!
Rafa hardly got broken here at RG, what make you think he would suddenly be broken by Fed, when Fed isn’t a great returner of serve to start with. In fact I think Rafa being better at returning serves would most likely break Fed’s serve more often than Fed breaking Rafa’s.
Fed shanked quite a few BHs when pressurised by Stan, Rafa’s lefty FH will make it worse for Fed. Fed was also slow to cover his FH corner and mis-hit his FH on the run, Rafa will make him pay with his (Rafa’s) lethal CC BH.
Dear luckystar, The result of Nadal’s service games in previous matches may not be a great comparison with what Federer can do. Nadal has never faced a single player who is capable of current Federer in previous 5 matches.
And I do not think that anyone would agree with you here, even deep Rafa fans, that Nadal has better serve than Federer.
Federer indeed has a better ROS, and the reason why Federer can break Nadal more is the fact that Nadal has weak service and Federer will literally exploit it. Just like Nadal was seemingly doing everything better before the 2019 Australian Open Final, but he eventually faced Djokovic and we saw what happened there. Same goes here!
Trust me lucky we can compare a lot of things between Nadal and Federer. But, you are forgetting two important factors that can alter Nadal’s play in that match.
First factor (Huge Factor): Federer’s nothing to lose position that could literally put a tremendous pressure on Nadal.
Second Factor: Federer’s latest mental edge that he acquired especially after 2017 Australian Open.
Mentality can play a huge role in determining how a player will play against a certain player. Just like Nadal got intensively nerves and just could not recover mentally in AO 2019 Final, ultimately leading him to play bad against Djokovic in Australian Open Final, 2019.
Mentality makes or breaks matches. In the past, Federer and Djokovic both had this issue mentality issue against Nadal, that kept them playing their best against Nadal. Djokovic reversed this pattern in 2011, but Federer reversed this in 2017. But, I must give Nadal that he used to have incredible nerves and mentality against both Djokovic and Federer in the past, especially against Federer. And unfortunately, this is no more the issue.
Come on, both Fed and Rafa got broken and did break their opponents serve in almost all their matches save one; there’s no proof that Fed could hold serve better than Rafa. Also, Fed has not met an opponent of Rafa’s caliber, what make you think he would not be broken more often by Rafa?
What make you people think that Fed has nothing to lose? In fact, I think he has everything to lose, because he knows he won’t have many more chances of meeting Rafa here, all the more he wants to do better and tries to beat Rafa one last time on clay.
In fact I feel Fed will be more nervous than Rafa; Rafa will as usual go through his own routine and game plan, whilst Fed has to think hard how to handle Rafa’s topspin, not only from the FH but also from Rafa’s BH.
Interestingly, when Ricky wrote the post with the headline “With nothing to lose, can Federer be dangerous against Nadal?”, I was personally thinking as if Ricky is making his mind and is probably going to make the greatest prediction of all time as Federer beating Nadal in straight sets or in 4 sets, and shocking almost everyone on this website.
But, Ricky in fact shocked me when he posted the Prediction as Nadal beating Federer in 3.
Hi, Ricky, you just missed the chance to predict the greatest prediction of all time by not choosing Federer to beat Nadal in straight sets or in 4. 😊
Federer is going to shock, except me and Joe Smith, everyone on this website including Ricky.
If you are super confident you should logically throw some money behind it, as Fed is still like $6-7 to win.
If you’re right then all credit to you, but yeah even as a Federer fan I’m just struggling to see it.
Dear luckystar, The result of Nadal’s service games in previous matches may not be a great comparison with what Federer can do. Nadal has never faced a single player who is capable of current Federer in previous 5 matches.
And I do not think that anyone would agree with you here, even deep Rafa fans, that Nadal has better serve than Federer.
Federer indeed has a better ROS, and the reason why Federer can break Nadal more is the fact that Nadal has weak service and Federer will literally exploit it. Just like Nadal was seemingly doing everything better before the 2019 Australian Open Final, but he eventually faced Djokovic and we saw what happened there. Same goes here!
Trust me lucky we can compare a lot of things between Nadal and Federer. But, you are forgetting two important factors that can alter Nadal’s play in that match.
First factor (Huge Factor): Federer’s nothing to lose position that could literally put a tremendous pressure on Nadal.
Second Factor: Federer’s latest mental edge that he acquired especially after 2017 Australian Open.
Mentality can play a huge role in determining how a player will play against a certain player. Just like Nadal got intensively nerves and just could not recover mentally in AO 2019 Final, ultimately leading him to play bad against Djokovic in Australian Open Final, 2019.
Mentality makes or breaks matches. In the past, Federer and Djokovic both had this issue mentality issue against Nadal, that kept them playing their best against Nadal. Djokovic reversed this pattern in 2011, but Federer reversed this in 2017. But, I must give Nadal that he used to have incredible nerves and mentality against both Djokovic and Federer in the past, especially against Federer. And unfortunately, this is no more the issue.
Correction: Luckystar, And I do not think that anyone would agree with you here, even deep Rafa fans, that Nadal has better ROS than Federer.
Additionally, Federer has both better serve than Nadal, as well as better ROS than Nadal. I would like to see if anyone else on this website may disagree with me about Federer having better ROS than Nadal.
Laughable, Nadline for sure will disagree with you, and not only her but most fans on this site. The stats supported what I said, Rafa is among the top two or three in terms of returned games won, Fed is not among them.
Why don’t you look at the stats at the atp website on the players themselves? Clearly, Rafa has better stats on the return points and return games won whilst Fed has better serving stats.
Nice to see that I found someone who seems to think how Federer will beat Nadal.
https://www.express.co.uk/sport/tennis/1136927/Roger-Federer-Rafael-Nadal-French-Open-Daniela-Hantuchova-Roland-Garros
So, it is good that apart from me and Joe Smith, someone from tennis background realizes how Federer can beat Nadal.
As expected .women’s semis on lenglen n Simone matheu n fedal on PC at 1 pm
Amy how’s weather 1 to 4 pm please..most reliable site ?
Fedal will finish tomorrow. the other semi might not.
Exactly my thoughts!
Not good on all weather sites sanju! Best weather is from 6 onwards. Have read all weather forecasts!
I think Fedal is likely to be delayed by rain. Even if rain stops and they can start around 3pm, it will be cool and windy, with wind increasingly through the aftenroon. Not ideal conditions, but I don’t think it favors either player. Ball won’t bounce as high, but also harder to hit through the court.
Don’t know why lucky thought rafa was adversely affected by wind the other day. He has always been great at playing in the wind. I think she said it affected his serve after injury? Lucky over to you.
Amy, his serve was affected badly by the wind in MC! You forget he got broken in every single service game in the first set against Foggy? At that time it’s rather windy at MC (and at Barcelona too).
He has improved at RG but I’m not sure when he’s a bit nervous, will the windy conditions affect him or his serve again. We shall see…
Men’s semis will be scheduled for 1 on Chatrier.
The women’s semis are at 11 on the other courts.
Most people think fedal will be on first. Lot of rain forecast!
love to see it
Yes, Fedal first on Chatrier. The scheduling actually makes sense for once since they’re the far more rested of the men’s semifinalists.
I’m sure rain is in the forecast but it’s Roland Garros, notorious for inaccurate weather forecasts. It seems to be able to rain in the rest of Paris but not at RG – and vice versa, of course.
Loved listening to fed!Always have a chance because rafa might be injured! Sick! Or may be helped by on off rain delays!
Rafa’s knees may give out, the dog may eat his homework, he might have a fight with his fiancee, Carlos may decide to spend the day with his kids. Lightning may strike him. Toni might have a heart attack. There may be an Act of God. The possibilities are endless.
Haha yes exactly! But Roger coming up with these negatives made me laugh!
Sorry to say haha again but that was very funny Ramara. I was imagining all these events occurring simultaneously!
Yeah! It was hilarious. I pictured ljubicic spiking Rafa’s paella as Roger was saying he could fall sick with a glint in his eye 🤣
I actually thought Fed was being self-deprecating, as if of course Rafa is the heavy favorite but you never know what could happen…
How are you feeling sanju?! Are the nerves kicking in?!
Yes big time .I won’t watch it .I am just hoping for a win .hoping hard .reading messages here making me more nervous 🙂 I would have felt better had there been sun but…
Best to ignore a lot of what people say sanju!
From 6 onwards there may be sun as they may not be able to play before. Lack of sun means lack of pace for Roger which won’t help him so works both ways. Was cloudy in 08!
Yes roger got beaten many times in cloudy n damp squib conditions ..also his serve may not find spots in breeze n wind..so yes it goes both ways..
All we can do is hope our Rafa wins …
The weather is good today n Saturday .why did it have to be cloudy n rainy Friday n Sunday
The forecast for Sunday is now good on most sites sanju! No rain low 20s with some sun.
08 Rafa was at another level..as he was in 17 n I think 10 too..
No set dropped all tourney
I know this is wrong thread but did anyone else see Simona go out? She was so disappointing although Ansimova was very good.
Shocking to see her go in straights .I think konta barty final..unexpected finals ..
Think Ansimova may beat Barty!
Saw that match, was great! You could not tell who would win till the end!! Very nice match although i am not familiar with either one, lol!!!
Good to see how Barty held her ground after losing first set when 5:1 lead and serving for it!!
Laver says that Roger will try and bring Rafa forwards all.the time with short serves and drop shots and volleys. That’s potentially very risky against Rafa as he is so good at net and if Roger isn’t accurate he will get passed all the time.
Laver said Rafa will win ao against Novak..he is wrong most times though these days ..ofcourse roger won’t sit n grind at baseline with Rafa but all the time .he is not a s&v player..
I think Roger will have to be aggressive but play with variety. That will mean go for a lot of winners, hit sharp angles, come into net, and hit the occasional drop shot. That will mean bringing Nadal in sometimes, but if Rafa is stepping into the court on his own terms, then of course that will not be good for Fed.
Bringing Rafa into the net is a different tactic and may throw him.He’s a good volleyer, but so is Fed.
And that’s exactly what happened. Roger simply had NO answers for Rafa today!! NONE!!
They have officially put Fedal on at 12.50 for tomorrow. Best result for us rafa fans is Rafa winning and the others having to play on Saturday!☺☺
Why have natashao and Mira not posted anything yet ? I don’t rem seeing anything from them at all..
Not seen much from NNY too..
Keep your mind sharp and focused, remain confident, be strong and show your warrior spirit, Rafa!
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D8cHzlqXYAAovtx.png
It is time folks!
Yes! I expect sanju is near death from nerves right now!!☺
So am I… hope our Rafito can get off to a good start and does not get broken in the first game
Yeah we are all really nervous!!
We couldnt have asked for a better semi-final lineup. Seeds 1, 2, 3 and 4