During the heyday of their dominance, a Grand Slam semifinal between Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer would have been thought of as some sort of punishment inflicted by an unfair draw.
But it’s 2019 now, and any reinstallment of arguably the greatest rivalry in tennis history has to be treated as bonus. No matter that it will take place in the semifinals instead of a final. Given the current state of things in the men’s game, a Fedal semifinal feels just about right.
That will be the case when the two veterans square off for the 39th time in their careers at the French Open on Friday. Nadal leads the head-to-head series 23-15, including 13-2 on clay and 5-0 at Roland Garros. But it’s not all bad news for Federer; not even close. The 37-year-old has won five in a row at the Spaniard’s expense dating back to 2015, including in the 2017 Australian Open title match to go along with a trio of victories at Masters 1000s and one in Basel.
Virtual home-court advantage goes to Nadal this time around, even though the crowd will surely throw its support behind Federer. The 11-time French Open champion is an absolutely outrageous 91-2 lifetime at this tournament, losing only to Robin Soderling (2009) and Novak Djokovic (2015) before withdrawing prior to the third round in 2016. He has been up to his usual tricks this fortnight with routine wins over Yannick Hanfmann, Yannick Maden, David Goffin (in four sets), Juan Ignacio Londero, and Kei Nishikori.
Federer has also surrendered only a single set. The third-ranked Swiss’ disposed of Lorenzo Sonego, Oscar Otte, Casper Ruud, and Leonardo Mayer in swift fashion before beating Stan Wawrinka 7-6(5), 4-6, 7-6(4), 6-4 on Tuesday. He is now 9-1 on clay this spring, a record that also includes mostly successful returns to Madrid and Rome.
“I (have already) exceeded my expectations here,” Federer said following his win over Wawrinka. “You know, after missing the French for so many years it’s nice to be back in the semis. So that’s a great feeling…. Now I have the match with Rafa, and I’m clearly excited. I hope I can recover well in the next couple days, which I’m sure I will, and I’ll give it my best shot on Friday.”
“I really expect that he (is) gonna play aggressive, changing rhythms, going to the net,” Nadal noted. “That’s my feeling, that he (is) gonna try to play that way, because he’s playing well and he has the tennis to make that happen. I have to be solid; I have to hit the ball enough strong to [not] allow him to do the things from good positions. I need to let him play from difficult positions, so from there he (is) gonna have less chances to go to the net or to play his aggressive game.”
The 17-time major winner has almost always been able to execute that plan on clay, pinning Federer on the baseline and exploiting his one-handed backhand with heavy topspin forehands. It is difficult to see anything different transpiring on Friday, as even though Federer’s return to clay has been impressive it still doesn’t include any wins over anyone in the top 14.
This will not be a complete rout; the world No. 3 is too good for that. But on this surface it likely won’t go more than three sets.
Pick: Nadal in 3
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All the commentators said the weather was a leveller between them because it would favour Federer as Rafa prefers hot dry conditions.
I think it can be a leveler in some sense, as both players will have to struggle with the conditions so much, which may reduce the favourite’s (Nadal) advantage by getting in the way of their usually successful tactics. That being said, as soon as I knew it would be extremely windy, I thought Fed’s already very slim chances got somewhat slimmer.
Hot weather in general is good for Fed, as the ball moves through the air quicker. I believe Rafa also prefers hot weather on clay as if it is dry he gets a lot of bounce off the court and the top spin has maximum effect. Wet weather on clay isn’t really good for either, as although it can reduce the bounce/rotations for Fed it doesn’t help aggressive play. You could argue Fed still wouldn’t mind if it were wet overall, as Nadal’s ball wouldn’t generally be up around his shoulders so much (this did help Soderling out a bit in ’09).
The wind is an interesting factor, as people have claimed recently that Rafa hasn’t played so well in windy conditions. This seems counter-intuitive if true, as Nadal generally plays with a lot of margin and gets so many rotations on the ball which help control it. If you play with more margin than your opponent, wind is generally good. That being said, Rafa’s game is now more attacking than it used to be, so that may be a factor. Federer plays with far less margin, goes for the lines, and relies on his serve quite a bit, so heavy winds are generally pretty bad for him.
A main example of this could be seen in yesterday’s match. Rafa hit a very high number of first serves, but often played it relatively safe with them. Federer could follow this same sort of tactic (go for the lines less, impart more spin), but the net result is not good for him as he has basically ‘withdrawn’ his main weapon. Nadal hasn’t lost much in that sense, as his serve is obviously solid but not really a weapon to begin with.
Wind can help Fed a bit in terms of the ball landing awkwardly mid court (providing attacking opportunities) and may help with drop shots as well, but it’s basically going to make playing an aggressive game where you go for the lines more difficult. As I’ve said before though, at the end of the day I don’t think it makes much difference to the result as it was likely going to be three sets either way.
Deserved win for Rafa ,I was expecting a closer match but could only see one winner.
At least we can give Fed some credit for not skipping the clay season and shying away from another RG Fedal match as some suggested.
Disappointed not so much because he lost, but that we never got a better day for tennis .
Actually, since I watch all my tennis on catch-up ,it’s very hard not to know the result which completely spoils it ,in this case as well.
After watching the other men’s semi, big props to both Roger and Rafa for the thoroughly professional manner in which they conducted themselves in very trying conditions.
True.. apart from Roger earning a warning for ball abuse.. they were very professional.
Two players with the most sportsmanship awards after all😌