French Open SF preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Federer

During the heyday of their dominance, a Grand Slam semifinal between Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer would have been thought of as some sort of punishment inflicted by an unfair draw.

But it’s 2019 now, and any reinstallment of arguably the greatest rivalry in tennis history has to be treated as bonus. No matter that it will take place in the semifinals instead of a final. Given the current state of things in the men’s game, a Fedal semifinal feels just about right.

That will be the case when the two veterans square off for the 39th time in their careers at the French Open on Friday. Nadal leads the head-to-head series 23-15, including 13-2 on clay and 5-0 at Roland Garros. But it’s not all bad news for Federer; not even close. The 37-year-old has won five in a row at the Spaniard’s expense dating back to 2015, including in the 2017 Australian Open title match to go along with a trio of victories at Masters 1000s and one in Basel.

Virtual home-court advantage goes to Nadal this time around, even though the crowd will surely throw its support behind Federer. The 11-time French Open champion is an absolutely outrageous 91-2 lifetime at this tournament, losing only to Robin Soderling (2009) and Novak Djokovic (2015) before withdrawing prior to the third round in 2016. He has been up to his usual tricks this fortnight with routine wins over Yannick Hanfmann, Yannick Maden, David Goffin (in four sets), Juan Ignacio Londero, and Kei Nishikori.

Federer has also surrendered only a single set. The third-ranked Swiss’ disposed of Lorenzo Sonego, Oscar Otte, Casper Ruud, and Leonardo Mayer in swift fashion before beating Stan Wawrinka 7-6(5), 4-6, 7-6(4), 6-4 on Tuesday. He is now 9-1 on clay this spring, a record that also includes mostly successful returns to Madrid and Rome.

“I (have already) exceeded my expectations here,” Federer said following his win over Wawrinka. “You know, after missing the French for so many years it’s nice to be back in the semis. So that’s a great feeling…. Now I have the match with Rafa, and I’m clearly excited. I hope I can recover well in the next couple days, which I’m sure I will, and I’ll give it my best shot on Friday.”

“I really expect that he (is) gonna play aggressive, changing rhythms, going to the net,” Nadal noted. “That’s my feeling, that he (is) gonna try to play that way, because he’s playing well and he has the tennis to make that happen. I have to be solid; I have to hit the ball enough strong to [not] allow him to do the things from good positions. I need to let him play from difficult positions, so from there he (is) gonna have less chances to go to the net or to play his aggressive game.”

The 17-time major winner has almost always been able to execute that plan on clay, pinning Federer on the baseline and exploiting his one-handed backhand with heavy topspin forehands. It is difficult to see anything different transpiring on Friday, as even though Federer’s return to clay has been impressive it still doesn’t include any wins over anyone in the top 14.

This will not be a complete rout; the world No. 3 is too good for that. But on this surface it likely won’t go more than three sets.

Pick: Nadal in 3

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36 Comments on French Open SF preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Federer

  1. Jim Courier June 7, 2019 at 1:17 PM
    ‘I reckon its the latter which makes it a tad boring at number 12. Just MO.’
    Just dont’ watch it then.

  2. As entertaining as the “unbiased” previews are, the “refusal to eat humble pie” reviews are even more so🥧🥧

    • Nmk1…..u cracking me up!! But I agree

      The pre-match reviews were laughable if not stupid!!!! Rafa beats Roger in str8t sets just like Ricky predicted while others felt Fed would win in 4 or str8ts!!! Are you kidding me? At RG?!!!

    • Ah thank you. Finally! I can enjoy a Friday night with friends. Thanks everyone..

      Now have to hope Thiem takes care of Djoko

        • Thank you Amy. Back home. Saw ur updates on the Djokovic match. I prefer Thiem. Would be a lil simpler for Nadal even if its not guaranteed. Have a nice nite guys. This is quite a family and I hope we get to celebrate Rafa’s 12th.

    • Ricky had it spot on with his prediction. I thought Fed could get a set. But Rafa was too good. Very proud of him for playing so well in these conditions.

      I was a bit concerned that Rafa might not have been challenged enough with his draw. But today he raised his level of play and just took control of this match.

      Rafa will get a chance to play for #12!
      😍

  3. Well done to Rafa and his fans! Obviously I was wrong about the outcome, but I have to say: for a match that was won in 3 sets with a scoreline that didn’t look that close, that was played in terrible conditions, and that my guy lost, I found this a very enjoyable and high quality match to watch!

    Although the 3rd set was all Rafa and he totally deserved the first set as well, I really felt like it was a match until the end of the 2nd set, which Fed should have won. The key games, imo, were 1) Fed failing to hold at 2-3 in the 1st set when he had several chances; 2) Fed failing to hold at 2-0 in the 2nd set; and 3) and most of all, Fed failing to hold at 4-4, 40-0 in the 2nd set. In all those circumstances, Nadal played phenomenal tennis, but I think Fed also under-performed at those key junctures. Fed’s 1st serve pct. was terrible in sets 2 and 3, which pretty much doomed his chances. Still, well done for him to make it this far. At no point did I think he looked like a nearly 38 year old out there.

    Nadal’s level was extremely high, higher than I thought it would be. I think if he plays like this he should win the final, though I guess if Novak ratchets it up a couple notches, he may have something to say about that.

    • Well said, Joe. Roger is indeed a phenomenal player for any age! Kudos to him for for playing the clay this year. He got quite a few ranking points out of it too. I know he’s no longer gunning for #1 but he won’t want his ranking slipping too far down and he’s been seriously unlucky at the majors for over a year now.

      No one expects objectivity from you where Federer is concerned. Just understand that Rafans can’t be objective either! It’s the curse of fandom.

  4. Its hard to make sense of how to read into Rafa’s play today given the conditions. He did play the big points better, which was a positive. Hopefully he does the same vs. Novak on Sunday.

  5. The level of play given the dreadful conditions was very very high! Fed played some very good tennis but rafa was unbelievable.

    • I agree, Amy. It was extremely high level tennis given the conditions, obviously more so by Rafa, but still high overall as well.

      • I actually felt sorry for fed in the final set. Not being patronising. He was really beaten up in the final set and it was quite hard to watch.
        Commies to you and fed will have a great shot at wimby.

        • Thanks, Amy. Fed did look a bit dejected out there in the 3rd set. He didn’t stop competing, but he was just getting dominated in a way that he wasn’t earlier in the match. I don’t think he really recovered from the collapse at 4-4, 40-0. And Rafa just took it up a notch once he got that break.

          • Tennis is way better for fed playing Joe! He done good as we brits say! Had a very good tournament overall!

        • Even though fed lost that match that was a great advert for tennis and a reminder of the greatness of the Fedal rivalry and how much they have given the sport.

  6. Well done to dear Rafa! He plays so well today. The ex-player Randy Lu (Lu Yan Soong if I’m not wrong), guest commentator at Fox Sports here, remarked that Rafa played it smart in the wind – when he’s playing against the wind, he hit harder his shots, but when with the wind, he hit more topspin.

    I’m so glad to see that and hear that, that means our Rafa is back! He’s able to overcome windy conditions, and he serves so well and so intelligently. He’s simply incredible at the FO!

    • Rafa served incredibly well. I thought Fed returned ok, but should have experimented with stepping back a couple steps. Bigger problem was that he hit so few of his own 1st serves in.

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