French Open SF preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Federer

During the heyday of their dominance, a Grand Slam semifinal between Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer would have been thought of as some sort of punishment inflicted by an unfair draw.

But it’s 2019 now, and any reinstallment of arguably the greatest rivalry in tennis history has to be treated as bonus. No matter that it will take place in the semifinals instead of a final. Given the current state of things in the men’s game, a Fedal semifinal feels just about right.

That will be the case when the two veterans square off for the 39th time in their careers at the French Open on Friday. Nadal leads the head-to-head series 23-15, including 13-2 on clay and 5-0 at Roland Garros. But it’s not all bad news for Federer; not even close. The 37-year-old has won five in a row at the Spaniard’s expense dating back to 2015, including in the 2017 Australian Open title match to go along with a trio of victories at Masters 1000s and one in Basel.

Virtual home-court advantage goes to Nadal this time around, even though the crowd will surely throw its support behind Federer. The 11-time French Open champion is an absolutely outrageous 91-2 lifetime at this tournament, losing only to Robin Soderling (2009) and Novak Djokovic (2015) before withdrawing prior to the third round in 2016. He has been up to his usual tricks this fortnight with routine wins over Yannick Hanfmann, Yannick Maden, David Goffin (in four sets), Juan Ignacio Londero, and Kei Nishikori.

Federer has also surrendered only a single set. The third-ranked Swiss’ disposed of Lorenzo Sonego, Oscar Otte, Casper Ruud, and Leonardo Mayer in swift fashion before beating Stan Wawrinka 7-6(5), 4-6, 7-6(4), 6-4 on Tuesday. He is now 9-1 on clay this spring, a record that also includes mostly successful returns to Madrid and Rome.

“I (have already) exceeded my expectations here,” Federer said following his win over Wawrinka. “You know, after missing the French for so many years it’s nice to be back in the semis. So that’s a great feeling…. Now I have the match with Rafa, and I’m clearly excited. I hope I can recover well in the next couple days, which I’m sure I will, and I’ll give it my best shot on Friday.”

“I really expect that he (is) gonna play aggressive, changing rhythms, going to the net,” Nadal noted. “That’s my feeling, that he (is) gonna try to play that way, because he’s playing well and he has the tennis to make that happen. I have to be solid; I have to hit the ball enough strong to [not] allow him to do the things from good positions. I need to let him play from difficult positions, so from there he (is) gonna have less chances to go to the net or to play his aggressive game.”

The 17-time major winner has almost always been able to execute that plan on clay, pinning Federer on the baseline and exploiting his one-handed backhand with heavy topspin forehands. It is difficult to see anything different transpiring on Friday, as even though Federer’s return to clay has been impressive it still doesn’t include any wins over anyone in the top 14.

This will not be a complete rout; the world No. 3 is too good for that. But on this surface it likely won’t go more than three sets.

Pick: Nadal in 3

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21 Comments on French Open SF preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Federer

  1. Such a shame at the end of that set. Nadal won the first set, but Fed had more to do with losing the second one. Biggest difference in the match is that Nadal has played the biggest points brilliantly. The commentator just said that if you took Rafa’s best six shots of the match, they’d pretty much correspond to the biggest six shots, which I think is exactly right. I’m not giving up on Fed just yet, though. He’s playing well enough to win this match, even if it would be slightly miraculous if he did so at this point.

  2. Jim Courier JUNE 7, 2019 AT 12:54 PM

    Has Nadal done his girly screech yet?

    I don’t think so since he’s not having to over-exert himself too much

  3. Roger is getting frustrated. Understandable, but he has to keep his head up. He’s missed some easy shots and hit some others into the wrong place, but Nadal is not giving him any margin for error.

  4. Phew, at least Rafa breaks twice in the third set, so in case he’s serving for the match and any hiccups, at least he has some buffer for that, and not let Fed level the set.

  5. Third set has been all Rafa, but this is really the first time it’s felt like he is dominating play and totally in control, at least to me. Fed’s first serve % has been atrocious in sets 2 and 3 and Nadal has maintained his extremely high level.

  6. Is it because Nadal is so awesome or because he has simply developed an almost unbeatable formula on this court?

    I reckon its the latter which makes it a tad boring at number 12. Just MO.

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