French Open final preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Thiem

It’s deja vu in the French Open men’s singles final. Dominic Thiem just hopes the outcome is a lot different this time around.

For the second straight time, Thiem and Rafael Nadal will battle for the Coupe des Mousquetaires on Sunday afternoon. To the surprise of no one, the 2018 title match went Nadal’s way in lopsided fashion–6-4, 6-3, 6-2 to be exact.

Overall, the 11-time Roland Garros champion leads the head-to-head series 8-4–including 7-4 on clay. Their lone encounter away from the slow stuff is their most memorable to date, as Nadal outlasted Thiem 0-6, 6-4, 7-5, 6-7(4), 7-6(5) in the quarterfinals of last year’s U.S. Open. They most recently faced each other in the Barcelona semis earlier this spring, when Thiem engineered a 6-4, 6-4 upset.

This, of course, is a totally different situation and a much different Nadal. The world No. 2 has heated up on the heels of a March knee injury and unusual clay-court losses in Monte-Carlo, Barcelona, and Madrid to capture the Rome title and storm into Sunday’s final–his 12th in 15 career appearances in Paris–without any trouble. David Goffin stole a set in round three, butΒ Yannick Hanfmann, Yannick Maden, Juan Ignacio Londero, Kei Nishikori, and Roger Federer all bowed out in straights.

Thiem’s roller-coaster fortnight was a wild ride early, smoothed out a bit with convincing wins over Gael Monfils and Karen Khachanov, and then went haywire again in the semifinals against Novak Djokovic. After a total of four hours and 13 minutes spanning both Friday and Saturday, the fourth-ranked Austrian survived a 6-2, 3-6, 7-5, 5-7, 7-5 thriller against the top-seeded Serb that featured three significant rain delays.

“Novak, Dominic, and myself are maybe the players who have had the best results on [this] surface,” Nadal noted. “So (in) the finals, (it) will be the most complicated opponent for me. In a final like this one, the opponent is always at a very high level–but that’s the rule of sports. That’s why this sport is even more interesting and even better.”

Thiem vs. Djokovic was certainly an interesting one, not only due to competitiveness but also because of the somewhat controversial stopping and starting. Now the question is if the underdog can challenge–and even beat–a second straight all-time-great opponent on a second straight day.

“I think it’s really important that I go into the match with the belief to win,” Thiem explained. That’s the most important thing…. I (have) had some very good matches in the past against him on clay, and I also beat him on clay already.

“Of course it’s big dream for me to win [the] match tomorrow, to win this title. But I also have in my head that [maybe] it’s not happening tomorrow–which can happen easy because of the opponent [who] is on the other side of the net. So I think I don’t make (for) myself too much pressure.”

Thiem is absolutely correct that it may not happen for him on Sunday, as Nadal is obviously a massive favorite for multiple reasons. The 33-year-old Spaniard is a 17-time Grand Slam champion, is riding an 11-match winning streak, and has played only two matches–and just six sets–dating back to last Sunday night. Thiem, on the other hand, will be taking the match court in same shape or form for a fourth consecutive day.

It is just about impossible to forecast a Thiem victory, but his current clay-court level and his experience–albeit not a good one–from last year should help him make it more competitive.

Pick: Nadal in 4

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40 Comments on French Open final preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Thiem

  1. It’s especially poignant to see Laver giving the trophy to rafa! #2 goats! πŸ†πŸ†πŸ†πŸ†πŸ†πŸ†πŸ†πŸ†πŸ†πŸ†πŸ†πŸ†

    • amy,

      That made it even more emotional for me seeing my hero Rod Laver giving Rafa the trophy! Could not have been more perfect! I grew up idolizing Rod Laver! I am just so glad he has lived to a ripe old age!

      πŸ†πŸ†πŸ†πŸ†πŸ†πŸ†πŸ†πŸ†πŸ†πŸ†πŸ†πŸ†

        • Congratulations to all Rafa fans! So great to have vr here with us. I was an absolute wreck! Nervous as anything! But vr’s calm assurance was so helpful.

          Sanju can stop worrying now. Hugs to everyone – amy, alison, ed, monalisa, lucky. Itβ€˜s been great sharing this historic moment with all of you!

          • Big hug to you too NNY! And to all the Rafa fans here!

            So happy for Rafa, Mission accomplished! As for Thiem, he has improved leaps and bounds, like I said before, he’s reaching his peak and may soon become a formidable player himself and will be hard to beat for anyone.

            I’m just so pleased and so glad that Rafa wins this one; he’s not coming out all guns blazing, unlike his 2017/2018 finals; but, Rafa knows how to use his guile and his court craft to counter Thiem’s powerful hard hitting, big serving and unbelievable defence. Rafa is simply amazing with all skills and his great tennis brain!

          • Theim is lucky to be playing Rafa at RG! It will no doubt help him improve his craft and be formidable in the future!

  2. And well done to Ricky again, he gets it right, ie Rafa in 4 sets!

    That guy Ricky, he’s simply unbelievable too with his predictions.

  3. I Couldnt be happier, number 18, number 12, Rafa will be pumped for Wimbledon hes after Federers 20 number smelling blood lol, Liverpool FC winning champions league title number 6 happy days πŸ™‚

  4. Rumor has it that Roger is going in with a new strategy at Roland garros 2020. After the success of ‘D’iego Schwatzman, ‘D’avid Goffin and ‘D”ominic Thiem in the last two years, roger federer to play under the name of Doger Dederer

  5. Congrats to all. Rafa with 18 and no 12 here. This is just unreal domination here..the most gruelling slam of all and he wins it 12 times..no man or woman ever will win 12 at a slam ever..this record will hold till infinity..

    This was the most stressful slam for me..I was really stressed from Wednesday and had knots in my stomach …finally it was worth nothing n it was just pure panic fearing a loss..mall the past coincidences,weather alerts need to be just banished.

    I am supporting thiem next year for french. Poor guy deserves it. All I want now is rafa to somehow reach 20 and he and fed jointly hold the slam record and retire πŸ™‚ ..I would like Rafa’s next 2 to come at wimby n ao..yeah I can dream πŸ™‚

  6. Commies to Thiem, what a fantastic player hes turning out to be really like him, and hope he wins a GS title , such a talented hard working player, what a fortnight for him, i do think it was a bit unfair with the sheduling, and DT was always at a disadvantage with the lack of rest, RG really needs to re-think some things ….

  7. Hugs Amy,NNY, Monalisa, so happy with this result πŸ™‚

    Also hugs and heads up to Elizabeth, DT has had a wonderful fortnight, and should be really proud of himself πŸ™‚

  8. I have been dreaming of a channel slam for rafa french wimby double since 14 πŸ™‚ ..the freaky kyrgios, muller n dJoker last year came outbof nowhere

  9. I can’t wait to go on Twitter n read all congrats pouring in for rafa n then read all the articles on him tomm πŸ™‚

    • Rafa will sure be no 2…Fed is not playing Stuttgart so will drop 300 points ..if he wins halle he will gain 200..so I don’t think he can make up deficit of close to 2000 points with Rafa as rafa went further at wimby last year

  10. Of all the times Rafa has been winning RG, one thing that has stood out is his relentless play. Lost 2nd set today against the run of play, then came back strongly. He has done that multiple times against Fed early on in his career, against Djoker. He has been up against 3 very good and consistent clay courters and he has taken up all the challenges thrown at him. This kind of dominance in any sport is incredible and beyond belief !

  11. 12 times ‘hooray’ for Rafa for winning the FO for the 12th time!!!!!!!!!!!!

    πŸ†πŸ†πŸ†πŸ†πŸ†πŸ†πŸ†πŸ†πŸ†πŸ†πŸ†πŸ†

  12. Look for a poster to come and claim today that Rafa was lucky he did not have to face Fabio Fognini- the only player to have a winning record against Rafa this year on clay.
    Rafa joins novak thiem and federer as people with two titles this year

    • One in his teens, 3 in his 30’s! This for a guy touted to have a short career. How many did Rosewall win in his 30’s? I know he was still playing very well in his late 30’s.

      If this latest victory proves anything its that this clay supremacy isn’t just a matter of Rafa walking on court and using his innate talents. He’s had to bring passion, training and plain hard work every single year. Awesome.

  13. VAMOS RAFA!!!!! Huge congrats for his *12th* Roland Garros. Unbelievable!

    This tournament could not have gone better for Rafa if I’d dreamed it up myself! Tell me I’m not dreaming…

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