French Open final expert picks: Nadal vs. Thiem

French Open expert picks conclude with Sunday’s final between Rafael Nadal and Dominic Thiem. Ricky Dimon and Cheryl Murray of The Grandstand plus Pete Ziebron of Tennis Acumen make their predictions.

(4) Dominic Thiem vs. (2) Rafael Nadal 

Ricky: Nadal will almost certainly win this one…again…just as he did at Thiem’s expense in the 2018 final. He has been absolutely cruising throughout the tournament, whereas Thiem will be playing a match on a fourth straight day and is coming off a wild five-setter against Novak Djokovic. Nadal is also 3-0 lifetime in this head-to-head matchup at Roland Garros and 9-0 in total sets, with set scores of 6-2, 6-2, 6-3, 6-3, 6-4, 6-0, 6-4, 6-3, and 6-2. But could this be at least somewhat competitive? Maybe, because Thiem now has at least some slam final experience (albeit not good!) and he will take confidence from his recent Barcelona scalp of Nadal (albeit under much different circumstances!). Nadal in 4: 6-2, 3-6, 6-3, 6-4.

Cheryl: Thiem can beat Nadal on clay. He has done it once a year since 2016, and this year is already no exception. The Austrian knocked Nadal out of his home tournament in his eponymous stadium in Barcelona. But that was Barcelona. That was a different Nadal. This Nadal, the one Thiem will be playing on Sunday, is the one we all know and other players fear. Just ask Federer, who took a beating in the semis. Thiem is the second-best clay-court player in the world right now…but he’s playing the one guy who’s better than he is. Nadal is still too good in Paris. I can’t see this going any other way than a 12th title for the King of Clay. Nadal in 4: 6-3, 6-4, 5-7, 6-4.

Pete: On a positive note for the Thiem, he has defeated Nadal on clay in each of the last four years–including a few weeks ago in Barcelona en route to the title. However, in this–the third consecutive meeting at Roland Garros with Nadal–Thiem will have little chance of winning the title. That is primarily due to the fact that his tongue is on the ground after eliminating Djokovic in a match that spanned two days. Nadal put a quick end to a valiant run by Federer in his march to the semis and will look forward to properly extinguishing the challenges that Thiem will bring in their third meeting in the last five majors. It will be full flight from Nadal in the final from first ball to once again lifting La Coupe des Mousquetaires for La Decima Plus Two. Nadal in 3: 6-2, 7-5, 6-4.

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