French Open final preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Thiem

It’s deja vu in the French Open men’s singles final. Dominic Thiem just hopes the outcome is a lot different this time around.

For the second straight time, Thiem and Rafael Nadal will battle for the Coupe des Mousquetaires on Sunday afternoon. To the surprise of no one, the 2018 title match went Nadal’s way in lopsided fashion–6-4, 6-3, 6-2 to be exact.

Overall, the 11-time Roland Garros champion leads the head-to-head series 8-4–including 7-4 on clay. Their lone encounter away from the slow stuff is their most memorable to date, as Nadal outlasted Thiem 0-6, 6-4, 7-5, 6-7(4), 7-6(5) in the quarterfinals of last year’s U.S. Open. They most recently faced each other in the Barcelona semis earlier this spring, when Thiem engineered a 6-4, 6-4 upset.

This, of course, is a totally different situation and a much different Nadal. The world No. 2 has heated up on the heels of a March knee injury and unusual clay-court losses in Monte-Carlo, Barcelona, and Madrid to capture the Rome title and storm into Sunday’s final–his 12th in 15 career appearances in Paris–without any trouble. David Goffin stole a set in round three, but Yannick Hanfmann, Yannick Maden, Juan Ignacio Londero, Kei Nishikori, and Roger Federer all bowed out in straights.

Thiem’s roller-coaster fortnight was a wild ride early, smoothed out a bit with convincing wins over Gael Monfils and Karen Khachanov, and then went haywire again in the semifinals against Novak Djokovic. After a total of four hours and 13 minutes spanning both Friday and Saturday, the fourth-ranked Austrian survived a 6-2, 3-6, 7-5, 5-7, 7-5 thriller against the top-seeded Serb that featured three significant rain delays.

“Novak, Dominic, and myself are maybe the players who have had the best results on [this] surface,” Nadal noted. “So (in) the finals, (it) will be the most complicated opponent for me. In a final like this one, the opponent is always at a very high level–but that’s the rule of sports. That’s why this sport is even more interesting and even better.”

Thiem vs. Djokovic was certainly an interesting one, not only due to competitiveness but also because of the somewhat controversial stopping and starting. Now the question is if the underdog can challenge–and even beat–a second straight all-time-great opponent on a second straight day.

“I think it’s really important that I go into the match with the belief to win,” Thiem explained. That’s the most important thing…. I (have) had some very good matches in the past against him on clay, and I also beat him on clay already.

“Of course it’s big dream for me to win [the] match tomorrow, to win this title. But I also have in my head that [maybe] it’s not happening tomorrow–which can happen easy because of the opponent [who] is on the other side of the net. So I think I don’t make (for) myself too much pressure.”

Thiem is absolutely correct that it may not happen for him on Sunday, as Nadal is obviously a massive favorite for multiple reasons. The 33-year-old Spaniard is a 17-time Grand Slam champion, is riding an 11-match winning streak, and has played only two matches–and just six sets–dating back to last Sunday night. Thiem, on the other hand, will be taking the match court in same shape or form for a fourth consecutive day.

It is just about impossible to forecast a Thiem victory, but his current clay-court level and his experience–albeit not a good one–from last year should help him make it more competitive.

Pick: Nadal in 4

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9 Comments on French Open final preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Thiem

  1. Congrats to the Rafans! 🍾🍾🏆 If RG doesn’t change the name of Court Chatrier to Court Rafael Nadal one day, then they are insane. Forget about 12- I see absolutely no reason that Rafa couldn’t end his career with 15 Roland Garros titles! Think about this- Rafa has the potential to end up with as many or more titles at Roland Garros than Pete Sampras has total major titles… Just let that sink in.

    I said this after 2017, but it is just a fact that Rafa at Roland Garros is the single greatest achievement in ALL OF SPORTS HISTORY. I know it has to eventually come to an end, but as long as he is healthy, Rafa will be a title contender at RG until the day he retires. He could be 45 years old, and if he was healthy, he would be at least a co-favorite for the title.

    As for Thiem, I give him big props because I didn’t think he even had enough left in the tank to even make a set competitive, let alone win one. He showed tremendous fight and competitiveness in outlasting Djokovic, and becoming the only guy who could beat him at the major since last year’s RG. So props to him. But unfortunately for him, he will most likely just have to wait until Rafa retires before he will win RG. He will do it one day, but he will probably have to avoid Rafa.

    • 🙂 Are you channeling Nico Almagro here? When he screamed after losing a big point to Rafa at RG “He’s going to win RG 45 times! He’ll be 60 years old and he’ll STILL win RG!”

      But the French won’t change the name of Chatrier, nor imo should they. Once you name something for a hero it should stay named. They will place a statue of Rafa there, hopefully close to the entrance of PC.

      Well, maybe someday they could change the tournament name to Garros-Nadal! 🙂 But Rafa’s satisfaction is in the work and the triumph and the trophy, the love of his family and team, not in tributes.

      As for the future Rafa said (to John McEnroe) “maybe one more…”

      Big props to Thiem. Maybe he’ll win a hard court slam before Rafa yields up RG. Great guy – he agreed to an after match interview with McEnroe. Never seen the loser do that. Good for him. I’m sure he won a lot fans this tournament.

  2. Thiem is such a sweet and pleasant guy; even Rafa praises him and calls him a good guy. Mladenovic is a lucky girl.

    • Yes Thiem is nice, respectful and sweet. But I think Rafa will go down as one of the most lovable adored guys in this sport. He has the results to match his humble sweet personality.

    • I agree, Lucky. I’ve always felt like Thiem seems to be just the sweetest, most genuinely friendly and likebale guy on the tour. I used to feel like it could actually be a detriment to him in the biggest moments, like he wouldn’t have enough of a competitive fire in him. But he has impressed me so much over the last year with his improved competitiveness. He has won or almost won so many big matches in the last year where he was down or a match was tight, but he kept fighting non-stop. The US Open match against Rafa comes to mind. His 3-set comeback win over Fed in the IW final. Now his epic fight with Djokovic in the SF. That was a part of him that I didn’t really see before the last 8 months or so. It’s something that I don’t see at all in a guy like Zverev. Thiem is extremely humble and hard-working, and there is no question is my mind that it will one day pay off! Even if it can’t happen until Big 3 are all gone.

      Fed is on the verge of retirement, but Rafa and Novak will be around for a while still. If there were any guys who I think at least have the potential to keep improving to the point where they could potentially overcome Novak or Rafa to win a major, it would be Thiem and Tsitsipas. They both still need respective improvements in their games, and Tsitsipas has a lot of maturing to do. I’d like to think that Tsitsipas will be humbled after his loss to Stan left him so dejected, but I’m skeptical because he was just as dejected after losing to Rafa at AO and then was right back to being cocky before RG. I think he’s just not very humble yet, particularly given his young age. Hopefully he will gain humility as he gets older, and realizes that one win over a 37 year old Fed does not mean you are all of a sudden ready to win a slam. He’s got all the potential in the world, though.

      I would love it if in the future we had a situation where Tsitsi was consistently the top dog on the quicker/lower-bouncing surfaces (AO/Wimbledon) and Thiem the big dog at the slower ones (RG/USO). I don’t necessarily want another situation where 99% of all majors are won by the same 2 or 3 guys, like the last fifteen years. But it’s always good, imo, to have a clear-cut 2 or 3 best players in the world.

      In the early ‘90s, it was Edberg/Courier/Becker. Then we had the Sampras/Agassi years. Then we had a few years of true parity, with Hewitt coming out on top. Then we had one year where it was just Federer and everyone else. Basically from 2001 through 2004 wasn’t great because you had ultra-parity, followed by a year of Federer untouchable without nobody challenging. Then in 2005, Rafa came and saved the day. And pretty much since 2005, there has always been at least 2 guys at the top of the game who were in a clear-cut class of their own. Sure, I’ve always wished there was a little more parity at the top of the game, but it’s become clear that that was how it was supposed to be because the 3 greatest players of all-time have been at their respective primes at different times since 2005.

      So if I come have it anyway in the future, it would be to have 2 or 3 guys who are in a clear-cut class of their own, and who win the most majors, but with at least a little bit more parity at the top than there has been since 2004. And I believe 2 of those guys will be Thiem and Tsitsipas. I would also love it if FAA could be one of those guys, too, but it’s just too soon to tell wth him.

  3. Just landed home from Paris. Unfortunate I didn’t get to see the match but I was anxious all while I was on the plane wondering how Rafa was doing.

    Im so happy that he won his 12th Coupe de Mousqueter!!!! I am so proud of my Rafa. My trip to RG is now worth it 1000x more!!!

    Vamos, Rafa!! See you at Wimby!!!

  4. Sanju no not at all, just struggled with spelling, i wouldnt disrespect a player like that, Stefanos lol ….

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