French Open final preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Thiem

It’s deja vu in the French Open men’s singles final. Dominic Thiem just hopes the outcome is a lot different this time around.

For the second straight time, Thiem and Rafael Nadal will battle for the Coupe des Mousquetaires on Sunday afternoon. To the surprise of no one, the 2018 title match went Nadal’s way in lopsided fashion–6-4, 6-3, 6-2 to be exact.

Overall, the 11-time Roland Garros champion leads the head-to-head series 8-4–including 7-4 on clay. Their lone encounter away from the slow stuff is their most memorable to date, as Nadal outlasted Thiem 0-6, 6-4, 7-5, 6-7(4), 7-6(5) in the quarterfinals of last year’s U.S. Open. They most recently faced each other in the Barcelona semis earlier this spring, when Thiem engineered a 6-4, 6-4 upset.

This, of course, is a totally different situation and a much different Nadal. The world No. 2 has heated up on the heels of a March knee injury and unusual clay-court losses in Monte-Carlo, Barcelona, and Madrid to capture the Rome title and storm into Sunday’s final–his 12th in 15 career appearances in Paris–without any trouble. David Goffin stole a set in round three, but Yannick Hanfmann, Yannick Maden, Juan Ignacio Londero, Kei Nishikori, and Roger Federer all bowed out in straights.

Thiem’s roller-coaster fortnight was a wild ride early, smoothed out a bit with convincing wins over Gael Monfils and Karen Khachanov, and then went haywire again in the semifinals against Novak Djokovic. After a total of four hours and 13 minutes spanning both Friday and Saturday, the fourth-ranked Austrian survived a 6-2, 3-6, 7-5, 5-7, 7-5 thriller against the top-seeded Serb that featured three significant rain delays.

“Novak, Dominic, and myself are maybe the players who have had the best results on [this] surface,” Nadal noted. “So (in) the finals, (it) will be the most complicated opponent for me. In a final like this one, the opponent is always at a very high level–but that’s the rule of sports. That’s why this sport is even more interesting and even better.”

Thiem vs. Djokovic was certainly an interesting one, not only due to competitiveness but also because of the somewhat controversial stopping and starting. Now the question is if the underdog can challenge–and even beat–a second straight all-time-great opponent on a second straight day.

“I think it’s really important that I go into the match with the belief to win,” Thiem explained. That’s the most important thing…. I (have) had some very good matches in the past against him on clay, and I also beat him on clay already.

“Of course it’s big dream for me to win [the] match tomorrow, to win this title. But I also have in my head that [maybe] it’s not happening tomorrow–which can happen easy because of the opponent [who] is on the other side of the net. So I think I don’t make (for) myself too much pressure.”

Thiem is absolutely correct that it may not happen for him on Sunday, as Nadal is obviously a massive favorite for multiple reasons. The 33-year-old Spaniard is a 17-time Grand Slam champion, is riding an 11-match winning streak, and has played only two matches–and just six sets–dating back to last Sunday night. Thiem, on the other hand, will be taking the match court in same shape or form for a fourth consecutive day.

It is just about impossible to forecast a Thiem victory, but his current clay-court level and his experience–albeit not a good one–from last year should help him make it more competitive.

Pick: Nadal in 4

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34 Comments on French Open final preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Thiem

  1. Yes Rafa breaks again finally! Now Rafa please be steady and serves for the Championship, no hiccups please!!

  2. His dominance on the dirt is utterly astonishing. It’s astounding how perfect his game is for the surface. The beast does it again!! Congrats Rafans!! #KingOfClay #Unbelievable

  3. Woooooohooo after what rafa went through during the clay season and we did too. # 18. Of all the clay court tourneys Rafa has the dozen at Rg

    • No Amy. I got your panic alerts 1st set on email. And then cudnt resist. I was much stronger in his career early. Now I don’t have the strength in me. This site seems to work for me. Thanks for the support each one one you. Now bring this energy into Wimbledon. Loving it .. now I will have my fourth drink in peace.

  4. Look at the quality beaten during his title runs- 05- fed in semis 06 07 08- fed,novak 10-soderling 11-fed, murray, soderling 12-novak, ferrer 13- novak and ferru 14- novak ferrer murray 17 – wawrinka 18- thiem 19- fed, thiem

  5. It’s amazing how he has been able to consistently withstand the multiple onslaughts from the second best claycourters of each generation. First it was Federer, then came Novak, and now it’s Thiem.

  6. In all honesty,I was not even 1% nervous today. I was so sure Rafa will win in 3 or 4 sets.

    Thiem is an INCREDIBLE clay court player. To me he is the only pure clay courter after Rafa. Djo and Fed are incredible on clay but they bring their own brands of tennis on clay.

    Thiem will win multiple RG titles in the future. However,as long as Rafa is here with the will to win, I don’t see how he will lose on this court. He is just a man possessed when he reaches the semis and finals.

    So,no.18 it is! Wow! This is the closest he has EVER been to Fed’s slam count.

    Rafa’s Fo tally is now higher than Rod Laver’s professional tennis grand slams.

      • Hello Amy, I have been so nervous over the years watching his finals but I was so assured today. Been telling my friends and family since game 1 that Rafa has got this. Lol.

        To me he was ticking all the boxes. Once he does that, he is unbeatable on this court.

        And, GREAT decision to switch back to his old service motion during the clay season! He regained stability in his service games.

        So a few weeks ago,according to Moya, Rafa had lost his passion and he was mnetally in such a bad spot. Now here we are today with Rafa holding his 12th RG trophy.

        How lucky to be witnessing this? 12 titles at a slam!!!!!!

        • Yess vr!!☺☺ I hope he gets another chance at wimby without the sodding roof this time! Hope you will be here for wimby!? I will. Always great watching with you and nny!
          # 3 Musketeers!!☺

  7. Rafa so happy, clapping for Rod Laver. Rafa is simply so incredible, even after coming back from his injury at IW.

    Thiem is playing very well despite having to play for four days in a row. He really gives Rafa a scare after levelling the match at one set all. I know his time will come in future, I hope he does win a few here.

    Rafa so emotional when the Spanish national anthem is played, I’m also with tears watching him. Thiem is such a sweet guy, he deserves to win the FO also. He simply suffers the same fate as Fed and Djoko, running into Rafa here almost always. But, Thiem has time on his side, and I really believe that Thiem will win more than one FO, he’s simply too good not to once Rafa is not there blocking his way.

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