It’s deja vu in the French Open men’s singles final. Dominic Thiem just hopes the outcome is a lot different this time around.
For the second straight time, Thiem and Rafael Nadal will battle for the Coupe des Mousquetaires on Sunday afternoon. To the surprise of no one, the 2018 title match went Nadal’s way in lopsided fashion–6-4, 6-3, 6-2 to be exact.
Overall, the 11-time Roland Garros champion leads the head-to-head series 8-4–including 7-4 on clay. Their lone encounter away from the slow stuff is their most memorable to date, as Nadal outlasted Thiem 0-6, 6-4, 7-5, 6-7(4), 7-6(5) in the quarterfinals of last year’s U.S. Open. They most recently faced each other in the Barcelona semis earlier this spring, when Thiem engineered a 6-4, 6-4 upset.
This, of course, is a totally different situation and a much different Nadal. The world No. 2 has heated up on the heels of a March knee injury and unusual clay-court losses in Monte-Carlo, Barcelona, and Madrid to capture the Rome title and storm into Sunday’s final–his 12th in 15 career appearances in Paris–without any trouble. David Goffin stole a set in round three, but Yannick Hanfmann, Yannick Maden, Juan Ignacio Londero, Kei Nishikori, and Roger Federer all bowed out in straights.
Thiem’s roller-coaster fortnight was a wild ride early, smoothed out a bit with convincing wins over Gael Monfils and Karen Khachanov, and then went haywire again in the semifinals against Novak Djokovic. After a total of four hours and 13 minutes spanning both Friday and Saturday, the fourth-ranked Austrian survived a 6-2, 3-6, 7-5, 5-7, 7-5 thriller against the top-seeded Serb that featured three significant rain delays.
“Novak, Dominic, and myself are maybe the players who have had the best results on [this] surface,” Nadal noted. “So (in) the finals, (it) will be the most complicated opponent for me. In a final like this one, the opponent is always at a very high level–but that’s the rule of sports. That’s why this sport is even more interesting and even better.”
Thiem vs. Djokovic was certainly an interesting one, not only due to competitiveness but also because of the somewhat controversial stopping and starting. Now the question is if the underdog can challenge–and even beat–a second straight all-time-great opponent on a second straight day.
“I think it’s really important that I go into the match with the belief to win,” Thiem explained. That’s the most important thing…. I (have) had some very good matches in the past against him on clay, and I also beat him on clay already.
“Of course it’s big dream for me to win [the] match tomorrow, to win this title. But I also have in my head that [maybe] it’s not happening tomorrow–which can happen easy because of the opponent [who] is on the other side of the net. So I think I don’t make (for) myself too much pressure.”
Thiem is absolutely correct that it may not happen for him on Sunday, as Nadal is obviously a massive favorite for multiple reasons. The 33-year-old Spaniard is a 17-time Grand Slam champion, is riding an 11-match winning streak, and has played only two matches–and just six sets–dating back to last Sunday night. Thiem, on the other hand, will be taking the match court in same shape or form for a fourth consecutive day.
It is just about impossible to forecast a Thiem victory, but his current clay-court level and his experience–albeit not a good one–from last year should help him make it more competitive.
Pick: Nadal in 4
[polldaddy poll=10338594]
who ya got?
BECAUSE IT IS FINAL MATCH NADAL WILL TAKE IT IN 3:0
Nadal in 3 devastating sets 12th RG
I favored Nadal in this potential matchup before the tournament. Thiem playing for the fourth straight day only makes Rafa a more overwhelming favorite. Part of the blame goes to RG for not yet having ability to finish matches in the same day, but part of it is also obviously one Thiem and how he had the opportunity to finish today’s match sooner.
However you look at it though, Rafa would have already been favored to win this match had there not been a big difference in rest days, so this just makes it damn-near a foregone conclusion as far as I’m concerned.
If you want to have even just a realistic shot of knocking off Rafa at RG these days, 3 things have to happen, and it must be ALL 3 of them: 1.) You have to be either Novak Djokovic or Dominic Thiem. 2.) You have to be well-rested and have no questions as to your physical ability to give it your all. And 3.) Rafa would need to play at at least a slightly lower level then usual.
Thiem made it to Rafa, so that’s the first requirement. But I just have no idea how he will be able to be physically 100% when he’s played all these days in a row. I don’t give a damn if his match against Novak was broken up- he has to be drained both physically and mentally after having to fight so hard to overcome the world #1 who was on a 26-match slam win streak.
Conversely, Rafa could not be any more fresh and ready to go than he is now. And that means that my #3 factor is all but guaranteed to NOT happen. The chance of Rafa’s level dropping is seriously like, 0.0000001%. When Rafa is in the RG final, having cruised through every opponent, with no back-to-back days of playing, and even an extra rest day before the SF, not to mention having just won Rome, there is just no way that you won’t get 100%-ready-to-destroy-everyone Rafa!
Again, in my opinion, the outcome of this Final is likely not related to the rest discrepancy. The only person who would have any realistic shot at all of beating THIS Rafa at RG would be a very in-form Novak, and even then Novak would have to play the absolute greatest match of his career. Dominic Thiem is amazing- without question! But he would most-likely not win this match if he was more rested, and he damn sure won’t win this match playing his 4th straight day.
Believe me, people- I will have no problem eating my words of some sort of miracle happens for Thiem. It would be unquestionably the greatest single victory that I would have ever seen. Of course miracles can happen, but not tomorrow.
I see an almost identical score line toast year’s final, if not worse. Rafa in 3 quick sets.
Djoko had played Rafa twice in the FO final and Rafa still beat him in four sets (it couldve been three sets in 2012 if not for the rain which saved Djoko for a set). In the 2014 final, Rafa wasn’t really at his best, neither was Djoko and Rafa ended up beating Djoko in four sets.
The closest Djoko got to against a Rafa who’s playing well (not counting 2015 as Rafa was horrible that year) was that 2013 SF, still Rafa came out on top in five sets.
Djoko’s playing his greatest match of his career in order to beat this Rafa in the final? Well so far that didn’t happen and may not happen so its not proven (that Djoko could beat Rafa in the final) and so it remains a speculation.
Great summary on the prospects of Dominic Theim winning.
Thiem has got the goods to beat Rafa on Clay.
After his performance against Novak I think he can beat Rafa in RG too but, maybe not this time, he’s bound to be a tad slower for this match. Rafa in 4
For some reason I feel anxious about tomorrow. Everyone wanting Dom to win and thinking he will be easier than Novak makes me nervous. Maybe Dom will be tougher. I don’t want rafa to lose just because Dom is a nice guy so it’s somehow ok. I honestly don’t care how Rafa gets #12 just as long as he gets it. If he beats Dom playing on one leg that’s fine by me!!☺☺
Amy..being anxious is normal. I am anxious too as we want rafa to win. I will not count thiem out even a bit. He has been in final last year so he has that experience. All the first time jitters will not be there though the nervousness of contesting a slam final will be there for both. Thiem has beaten rafa 4 times on clay so he knows. I am just hoping rafa sums up every bit of exp n energy n intangibles too to take the title tomm
Are you going to watch sanju??
No …I want to but I will be nervous…I will watch india australia wc that will happen in parallel..im not that much a cricket fan n i am not emotionally invested…so I can watch more relaxed just hoping for a good match…
i’d feel good about Rafa’s chances vs. either
I didn’t think Dom played very well either today or yesterday – hope he isn’t going to suddenly up his game tomorrow. He is surely not going to incessantly use slice against rafa!!
Rafa of course , im with Amy , just want Rafa to get 12, and 18 lol, DTs a nice guy but i want Rafa to win 🙂
Yeah Alison don’t give a damn about fair play, great match and so on. Just want rafa to win and preferably in a way which doesn’t give me a nervous breakdown!
#12
#18
Dominic won’t win this year but if he keeps up the consistency and gets any stronger, he’ll be hard to beat – a bit like Stan on clay at his best. Maybe next year for Thiem – if he can be a more efficient in reaching the final.
Rafa in 3 for his 18th GS.
#12 RG
I find myself often in the position of wanting a big 5 set match, but I know my poor mind couldn’t handle it! I feel like Rafa should win this, but I wouldn’t be massively surprised, or even a little upset, to see Thiem take the title. Even if he doesn’t, just look how much better he’s gotten since he first played Rafa at RG in 2014. So much more complete!
It’s very unfortunate that Thiem doesn’t get a full day off.
Yes, I agree – a day off for Theim would certainly help his chances. But…
That was truly some of the best tennis I’ve seen from him in the SF fighting off Nole in the end. His forehand shots were punishingly on target – especially when he needed them most.
Theim can win a set if the experienced gained from last year’s final is greater than the physical loss of having no days rest between play. Im leaning towards Nadal 3-zip and will probably hedge my bet with Nadal 3-1. There’s no way Theim wins 2 sets or this match.
Nadal in 5
Will be interesting to see how Thiem copes with facing another member of the big 4 after beating one. He had a torrid time against Djoko after beating Rafa in Rome in 2017, got beaten by Djoko in Madrid after beating Roger, got smoked by Rafa after beating Djoko in paris in 2017. First set key as always. Rafa winning set 1 may suck all belief out of Thiem
This final will be closer than last years , Nadal in four tight
Thiem hasn’t had much rest otherwise I might pick him to win
Hoping for Rafa in 3. Interestingly no set of Rafa has gone past the ten game mark in this tourney
I think Nadal 3-0 but my bet is on Nadal 3-1. I like the 3.50 odds on offer.
Regardless of the circumstances, if Theim doesnt win a set this year it will be devastating for his future prospects of holding an RG title while Rafa is still playing IMO. Nadal has a 6-0 record against Theim at RG.
On paper, it seems tennis gods have again chosen Thiem as a sacrificing goat to the clay GOAT to carry out annual ritual for Nadal.
But the questions are:
Can Thiem revolt against the historical wishes of tennis gods against all odds? Can tennis gods again send hurricane wind to again stop someone who can genuinely beat the dearest of them? Can ‘twister wind’ again massively diminish and hamper the important capabilities of someone – just like Federer in Semifinals – who can genuinely beat the special of Tennis gods on gods’ favorite land surface? Can Thiem recover the physical abuse he had to suffer due to Organizers’ mismanagement and Djokovic’s selfish attitude of not to continue on Friday? Can Thiem take inspiration from Wawrinka and recognize the importance of “Ever tried ever failed no matter Try again fail again Fail better”?
BUT THE BIG QUESTION: CAN THIEM JUST BRING THE 70% CALY PEAK OF 2015 WAWRINKA? IF THE ANSWER OF THIS BIG QUESTION IS YES, THEN THIEM SHOULD WIN THIS FRENCH OPEN 2019 FINAL AGAINST CLAY GOAT IN 4 GLORIOUS SETS
Based on my calculations, the probability of Theim winning 2 sets is approx. 1% and winning the match, well below 1%. The probability of him winning a set is around 30-40% with Nadal winning in straight 60-70%.
The key point from a betting perspective, there’s much difference between in probability between Nadal winning 3-0 and 3-1 so the value is definately with the 3-1.
‘Not much difference’
It is time to have a new champ. This is a grand slam final. It is not an ATP premier tournament. Thiem will fight all the way.
The King in 3
Courier: ‘Thiem Needs To Do Something Extraordinary’
https://www.atptour.com/en/news/nadal-thiem-roland-garros-2019-courier-preview