It’s deja vu in the French Open men’s singles final. Dominic Thiem just hopes the outcome is a lot different this time around.
For the second straight time, Thiem and Rafael Nadal will battle for the Coupe des Mousquetaires on Sunday afternoon. To the surprise of no one, the 2018 title match went Nadal’s way in lopsided fashion–6-4, 6-3, 6-2 to be exact.
Overall, the 11-time Roland Garros champion leads the head-to-head series 8-4–including 7-4 on clay. Their lone encounter away from the slow stuff is their most memorable to date, as Nadal outlasted Thiem 0-6, 6-4, 7-5, 6-7(4), 7-6(5) in the quarterfinals of last year’s U.S. Open. They most recently faced each other in the Barcelona semis earlier this spring, when Thiem engineered a 6-4, 6-4 upset.
This, of course, is a totally different situation and a much different Nadal. The world No. 2 has heated up on the heels of a March knee injury and unusual clay-court losses in Monte-Carlo, Barcelona, and Madrid to capture the Rome title and storm into Sunday’s final–his 12th in 15 career appearances in Paris–without any trouble. David Goffin stole a set in round three, but Yannick Hanfmann, Yannick Maden, Juan Ignacio Londero, Kei Nishikori, and Roger Federer all bowed out in straights.
Thiem’s roller-coaster fortnight was a wild ride early, smoothed out a bit with convincing wins over Gael Monfils and Karen Khachanov, and then went haywire again in the semifinals against Novak Djokovic. After a total of four hours and 13 minutes spanning both Friday and Saturday, the fourth-ranked Austrian survived a 6-2, 3-6, 7-5, 5-7, 7-5 thriller against the top-seeded Serb that featured three significant rain delays.
“Novak, Dominic, and myself are maybe the players who have had the best results on [this] surface,” Nadal noted. “So (in) the finals, (it) will be the most complicated opponent for me. In a final like this one, the opponent is always at a very high level–but that’s the rule of sports. That’s why this sport is even more interesting and even better.”
Thiem vs. Djokovic was certainly an interesting one, not only due to competitiveness but also because of the somewhat controversial stopping and starting. Now the question is if the underdog can challenge–and even beat–a second straight all-time-great opponent on a second straight day.
“I think it’s really important that I go into the match with the belief to win,” Thiem explained. That’s the most important thing…. I (have) had some very good matches in the past against him on clay, and I also beat him on clay already.
“Of course it’s big dream for me to win [the] match tomorrow, to win this title. But I also have in my head that [maybe] it’s not happening tomorrow–which can happen easy because of the opponent [who] is on the other side of the net. So I think I don’t make (for) myself too much pressure.”
Thiem is absolutely correct that it may not happen for him on Sunday, as Nadal is obviously a massive favorite for multiple reasons. The 33-year-old Spaniard is a 17-time Grand Slam champion, is riding an 11-match winning streak, and has played only two matches–and just six sets–dating back to last Sunday night. Thiem, on the other hand, will be taking the match court in same shape or form for a fourth consecutive day.
It is just about impossible to forecast a Thiem victory, but his current clay-court level and his experience–albeit not a good one–from last year should help him make it more competitive.
Pick: Nadal in 4
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I want to say a quick “Hi” to all my fellow rafa- and tennis-fans☺
These days I only tune in for the big events.
Considering Rafa’s recent troubles with diverse ailments, it’s a bit surreal to see him already in his second slam final of the year – although a RG final is of course far less surprising than the earlier AO final. But it was far from a given after a for Rafa’s lofty standards very mediocre clay season. But these days he has the uncanny ability to peak exactly for the big events. Therefore I’m not overly worried by his recent straight set loss against Thiem in Barcelona, because since then Rafa has gathered strength on clay like a hurricane over the ocean. Even a real hurricane couldn’t stop him against Fed😉 And while a 12th title in Barcelona was totally irrelevant for the big picture, a 12th RG title would mean a lot. Although Rafa’s clay GOATness is already established beyond any reasonable doubt for decades to come, an 18th slam trophy would bring his overall haul ridiculously close to Fed’s count of 20 trophies and add even more fuel to the raging GOAT debate.
Let’s look more closely at the big picture and the race between Roger, Rafa and Novak for historic GOATness: If Novak had really managed to win a second RG trophy today, his case for being the present GOAT would’ve been bolstered immensely: he would’ve been just one trophy short of Rafa’s slam count, and it probably would’ve been only a matter of time for the Djoker to catch up with or even leap-frog Rafa. It very well could’ve happened this very season! And completing two Nole-Slams would’ve been more valuable in my book than Roger’s still slightly higher slam count. Considering that Novak has a positive head-to-head against Rafa and Roger and would’ve won each slam at least twice, leads me to the conclusion that Novak could’ve rightfully considered himself to be the current and probably future GOAT – if he would’ve won the RG trophy today. Therefore he lost far more than a slam semi-final yesterday. It’s highly unlikely at his age that he will be ever again in the position to complete another Nole Slam. Even the chances for another shot at a second RG title have become a bit more remote, since the new generation, led by Thiem, has clearly gained some ground, and as of now there’s no reason to believe that Rafa won’t be a strong clay contender next year. Therefore I consider Novak to be the biggest loser as far as the overall picture of tennis history is concerned. And although Rafa recently lost a match on clay against Thiem but won his last match against the Djoker, I think that Thiem is the slightly easier opponent today. The pressure should be considerably lower for Rafa because a loss against Thiem has far less implications than another loss at RG against Novak would’ve had.
That said, a win over Thiem is far from a given for Rafa and he will have to earn it with great tennis. Unlike other highly touted next-gen players (Zwerev – cough, cough…) Thiem has proven himself already to be a real contender – at least on the red dirt. He’s definitely the most likely future RG champion. I hope that Rafa will be able today to postpone the inevitable 😉
Yes littlefoot, I agree about Djoko losing at this FO, that it’s a great impact on his claim to be greater than Fedal, than just merely losing a SF at a slam.
So, for that reason, I don’t wish for Djoko to make it to the final, when the hype about his 2nd Nole slam would be simply unbearable.
I know Thiem won’t be an easy opponent for Rafa, and that’s because Rafa may not play like he did in 2017 and 2018 finals (imo that Rafa would beat this Thiem convincingly like the way he had beaten Stan in 2017).
Thiem is young and very fit physically, and he’s very powerful from the baseline. So, if Rafa wants to beat this Thiem, he has to use all his court craft, his experience and plays his best tennis to beat him.
I think without the wind, Thiem will be able to play like he did at Barcelona, whether he could do that in BO5 sets vs Rafa assuming Rafa is ready for that, we’ll have to wait and see.
To me Rafa should be able to win in four sets, he may win the first set and loses the second as he usually has lapses in second setz (just like in the SF against Fed, though Fed couldn’t capitalize in windy conditions).
As a rafafan I was also very content that Novak missed the final. As you said, the hype would’ve been unbearable and the pressure would’ve been immense.
I’m very glad that things went well today for Rafa ☺☺☺
Congrats to Thiem and his fans for a great RG campaign.
The late money is coming for Nadal now. In from 1.25 to 1.21.
Weather looks to be a non-issue.
Are we commenting on the match on this thread?
God I feel awful!
Hi guys, Much like Sanju, I will not be watching the match. I am going to try to not peek in here for the next couple hours and hopefully all goes well for Rafa in the first set and then the second.. Winning the first set should do it but that makes me so nervous. You guys enjoy and good luck to you all. Hoping for a good celebration tonite.
Obligatory Soderling footage!
Thanks so much for showing this every year!😬
They keep going on about rafa having cramp in his hand last year. As if I needed reminding!
The nerves have kicked in big time! Can I watch it? I am a wreck!
Can Rafa hold off Thiem one more time? After all Rafa has been through, I really want to see him get #12. It’s been a hard road to get here this year.
Vamos Rafa! Always! 😍
Come on Rafa!!
Thiem playing well.where is Mona to bash him over the head?
Omg.. Thiem made some Rafa like retrieves on the deuce point. Looks like this will be dog fight. Hope Rafa can pounce when Thiems level goes down
Rafa not hitting with depth; he has the topspin but not the depth. His shots barely passes Thiem’s service box. Rafa’s all court game is there to help him though.
Rafa a bit nervy! Thiem playing more relaxed!
Oh good Dom struggling on the backhand out wide!
Don’t like how Rafa is playing!
Rafa’s FH is horrible today, and Thiem breaks!
Oh no!!
I knew this was going to.happen. He isn’t playing nearly as well as he can.
Yeah some unusual errors from Rafa. Maybe is nervous about thiems big hitting
Needs a bit of luck!
Come on rafa!!!
Thiem is out Rafa ing rafa with his defense
Thiem playing with something to lose in that game and ended up making loads of ufes