French Open final preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Thiem

It’s deja vu in the French Open men’s singles final. Dominic Thiem just hopes the outcome is a lot different this time around.

For the second straight time, Thiem and Rafael Nadal will battle for the Coupe des Mousquetaires on Sunday afternoon. To the surprise of no one, the 2018 title match went Nadal’s way in lopsided fashion–6-4, 6-3, 6-2 to be exact.

Overall, the 11-time Roland Garros champion leads the head-to-head series 8-4–including 7-4 on clay. Their lone encounter away from the slow stuff is their most memorable to date, as Nadal outlasted Thiem 0-6, 6-4, 7-5, 6-7(4), 7-6(5) in the quarterfinals of last year’s U.S. Open. They most recently faced each other in the Barcelona semis earlier this spring, when Thiem engineered a 6-4, 6-4 upset.

This, of course, is a totally different situation and a much different Nadal. The world No. 2 has heated up on the heels of a March knee injury and unusual clay-court losses in Monte-Carlo, Barcelona, and Madrid to capture the Rome title and storm into Sunday’s final–his 12th in 15 career appearances in Paris–without any trouble. David Goffin stole a set in round three, but Yannick Hanfmann, Yannick Maden, Juan Ignacio Londero, Kei Nishikori, and Roger Federer all bowed out in straights.

Thiem’s roller-coaster fortnight was a wild ride early, smoothed out a bit with convincing wins over Gael Monfils and Karen Khachanov, and then went haywire again in the semifinals against Novak Djokovic. After a total of four hours and 13 minutes spanning both Friday and Saturday, the fourth-ranked Austrian survived a 6-2, 3-6, 7-5, 5-7, 7-5 thriller against the top-seeded Serb that featured three significant rain delays.

“Novak, Dominic, and myself are maybe the players who have had the best results on [this] surface,” Nadal noted. “So (in) the finals, (it) will be the most complicated opponent for me. In a final like this one, the opponent is always at a very high level–but that’s the rule of sports. That’s why this sport is even more interesting and even better.”

Thiem vs. Djokovic was certainly an interesting one, not only due to competitiveness but also because of the somewhat controversial stopping and starting. Now the question is if the underdog can challenge–and even beat–a second straight all-time-great opponent on a second straight day.

“I think it’s really important that I go into the match with the belief to win,” Thiem explained. That’s the most important thing…. I (have) had some very good matches in the past against him on clay, and I also beat him on clay already.

“Of course it’s big dream for me to win [the] match tomorrow, to win this title. But I also have in my head that [maybe] it’s not happening tomorrow–which can happen easy because of the opponent [who] is on the other side of the net. So I think I don’t make (for) myself too much pressure.”

Thiem is absolutely correct that it may not happen for him on Sunday, as Nadal is obviously a massive favorite for multiple reasons. The 33-year-old Spaniard is a 17-time Grand Slam champion, is riding an 11-match winning streak, and has played only two matches–and just six sets–dating back to last Sunday night. Thiem, on the other hand, will be taking the match court in same shape or form for a fourth consecutive day.

It is just about impossible to forecast a Thiem victory, but his current clay-court level and his experience–albeit not a good one–from last year should help him make it more competitive.

Pick: Nadal in 4

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